Emmys 2012 Predictions: Outstanding Drama Series
Can 'Downton Abbey' or 'Homeland' stop a 'Mad Men' five-peat?
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Time for Dan and I to wrap up our Emmy picks for who should and will win all the major categories with Outstanding Drama Series.
Your nominees:
"Boardwalk Empire"
"Breaking Bad"
"Downton Abbey"
"Game of Thrones"
"Homeland"
"Mad Men"
Should win
Alan's pick: "Homeland" had a fantastic debut season, but the two AMC series remain the cream of the crop, and I would say "Breaking Bad" season 4 (with the relentless intensity of the Walter White/Gus Fring cold war) was a little better than "Mad Men" season 5 (which experimented stylistically while also giving us a Don Draper at war with his own nature).
Dan's pick: "Mad Men" and "Breaking Bad" are the best shows on TV, but it's a struggle to remember what we're comparing in this category. I think "Mad Men" had a vastly superior 2012 season to the half-season turned in by "Breaking Bad." However, we're comparing 2012 "Mad Men" to 2011 "Breaking Bad" for Emmy purposes and that's MUCH closer. On the podcast, I gave "Mad Men" the advantage, but I think here I'm going with "Breaking Bad." It's that close, though. But really? I like all six of these shows quite a bit. Emmy voters did a subpar job of recognizing the best comedies on TV, but they did a very good job of recognizing the best dramas on TV.
Will win
Alan's pick: I would rank the field as "Mad Men" (a great series that appeals to every Emmy demographic) followed by a big gap, then "Downton Abbey" (which did very well when competing as a miniseries and appeals to voters' Anglophilia) and "Homeland" (the hot new show with a great first season), then another gap before "Breaking Bad" (where voters seem to like the performances but are reluctant to embrace the scuzzy Southwestern vibe of it all), while the two HBO shows should just be happy to be nominated. I'm betting on "Mad Men" to make Emmy history as the first show to win five awards in a row in this category, but an upset could come from PBS or Showtime.
Dan's pick: "Breaking Bad" has been adding nominations each year as Emmy voters slowly warm to the show. "Downton Abbey" was a surprise miniseries juggernaut last year and the number of nominations this year suggest it still has ample support. "Game of Thrones" was the big winner at the Creative Arts Emmys last weekend, so some people in the Academy respect a lot of things about it. And "Mad Men" is "Mad Men." Barring something wacky, it's going to be my No. 1 show of the year, once again. BUT... "Homeland" is shiny and new and buzzy and zeitgeisty. And it's also quite good, delivering "24"-style thrills with a backdrop that suggests it all means something important. I don't think "Homeland" is better than "Mad Men," but I do predict that, in an upset, it ends Matt Weiner's reign atop the Emmy drama charts.
PREVIOUSLY: Outstanding Miniseries or Movie | Outstanding Directing | Outstanding Writing | Outstanding Supporting Actress | Outstanding Supporting Actor | Outstanding Lead Actress | Outstanding Lead Actor | Outstanding Comedy Series
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupDe Niro
September 22, 2012 at 1:42PM EST Reply to CommentI disagree, I think Breaking Bad's fifth season was just as good, although that doesn't matter because the season isn't over yet. Other than that good choices, Breaking Bad is certainly better than Mad Men.
John I think Breaking Bad's fifth season was slightly weaker than its third and fourth seasons (which isn't that much of a downgrade, as those are two of the best seasons in the history of television), but I'd still take it over the very good fourth season of Mad Men (which unfortunately had a few bad episodes). It's just that while I thought that Breaking Bad was *by far* the best show on television in its last two seasons, the door is now open just enough for me to pick something else if it turns in an excellent season. Having read A Storm of Swords, my money's on Game of Thrones to challenge Breaking Bad for the title of the best show on television next year.
September 22, 2012 at 2:47PM ESTStacy I'm going to gave to rewatch before I can say how I actually felt about this sesson of Breaking Bad. I liked it a lot but I really wish they had at least two more episodes. It did feel very rushed in some places. However I strongly disagree with Dan that Mad Men season 5 was "vastly superior" to Breaking Bad 5.1.
September 22, 2012 at 3:22PM ESTdan Y'all are welcome to disagree. That's why my name is next to the opinion...
September 22, 2012 at 3:25PM ESTFor my money? Vastly superior. Your results can/may/do vary...
-Daniel
Jonathan I Think Breaking Bad had a pretty minor season where the only thing they did of significance was turn Walt into one-note caricature. It's still an exciting, aggressive show, but if it's to be counted as a whole season, then it was the show's weakest.
September 22, 2012 at 3:48PM ESTireneinidaho But guys, the season in competition tomorrow is Season 4, not Season 1/2-5. Unless Emmy voters are also confused, I'd put money on BB S4.
September 22, 2012 at 5:50PM ESTJohn IreneInIdaho: Yeah, I'm aware that the fourth season is the one up for the Emmys. Sorry, if I wasn't clear on that point--I was responding to Dan's erroneous contention that the fourth season of Mad Mad was "vastly superior" to the first half of the fifth season of Breaking Bad. I don't think it was superior at all, let alone vastly superior. As for the fifth season of Mad Men vs. the fourth season of Breaking Bad, that's no contest. I liked Mad Men a lot, but Breaking Bad was by far the best season on television. I thought Mad Men had some mediocre episodes. Breaking Bad didn't.
September 22, 2012 at 6:47PM ESTJohn Sorry, that should say the fifth season of Mad Men, not the fourth season.
September 22, 2012 at 6:49PM ESTJonathan
September 22, 2012 at 3:41PM EST Reply to CommentMad Men, Homeland and Breaking Bad each had very good, sometimes great, sometimes iffy seasons. Downton Abbey was mediocre. Game of Thrones had a rather convoluted, bombastic second season
I slightly prefer Homeland. It was such a surprisingly good debut that was a lot more emotionally engaging than any other series this past year. Mad Men had a recovery season. Season four was overrated as hell. Season five was the best since the show's second. However, there was still a lot of filler and some ambitions that didn't work for me. Breaking Bad is the hip show, but I think the show reached its peak a long time ago, so unless its final ten episodes are great I'd rather not see it win a series Emmy.
I'd say the Emmy is between Mad Men and Homeland. Breaking Bad is still too dark and out there for voters. Despite Downton Abbey's crazy amount of nominationsI don't think voters take the show seriously. However, any of those four show's could end up winning.
Meh Mad Mad and Breaking Bad each had outstanding seasons. Homeland had a very good, sometimes great, sometimes iffy season. Not nearly as good as people say it is. Game of Thrones is still Game of Thrones, and it's awesome.
September 22, 2012 at 7:44PM ESTHomeland's debut season is overrated as hell. Mad Men had an excellent fifth season (after an almost-equally-excellent fourth). Breaking Bad's entire run is its peak. Would love to see win a series Emmy. Both of those shows are just so much more emotionally engaging than anything else on TV. Homeland is the hip show, but it's still on Showtime, which means it will nosedive sooner rather than later.
Meh Mad Mad and Breaking Bad each had outstanding seasons. Homeland had a very good, sometimes great, sometimes iffy season. Not nearly as good as people say it is. Game of Thrones is still Game of Thrones, and it's awesome.
September 22, 2012 at 7:44PM ESTHomeland's debut season is overrated as hell. Mad Men had an excellent fifth season (after an almost-equally-excellent fourth). Breaking Bad's entire run is its peak. Would love to see win a series Emmy. Both of those shows are just so much more emotionally engaging than anything else on TV. Homeland is the hip show, but it's still on Showtime, which means it will nosedive sooner rather than later.
Gregory Gregson
September 22, 2012 at 3:45PM EST Reply to CommentI'm surprised that you think Homeland has a shot of beating Mad Men. The only show I can see beating Mad Men is Downton Abbey. I mean, they nominated Jim Carter, who does absolutely NOTHING on the show, over Mandy Patinkin! To me, that's just a clear sign that the Emmy voters absolutely love DA.
De Niro
September 22, 2012 at 4:10PM EST Reply to CommentJohn and Stacy, remember how people were saying the first episodes of season 4 were slow and weak, and then when the season ended they were praising it as the best? I think people should wait until the next 8 to be able to judge properly.
Jonathan I only loved two out of the eight episodes, and since these are all the episodes will be competing at next year's Emmys you have to treat it as a seperate entity.
September 22, 2012 at 4:51PM ESTJohn Well, I was not one of the people complaining about the first few episodes of the fourth season. I thought every single episode was very good to amazing, and I thought so at the time. There's no revisionist history on my part. And I think that the first half of the fifth season was only slightly weaker than the third and fourth seasons, which are two of the best seasons in the history of television.
September 22, 2012 at 6:56PM ESTIt's still my favorite show, and it may well be the best show next year as well. It's just that when I watched the fourth season, I knew that nothing would approach it, and nothing did. It was *by far* the best show on television that year. With the first half of the fifth season, I think the door is open for something else to get my vote for next year's Emmy. My money is on Game of Thrones, as I've read A Storm of Swords and know that the source material is amazing.
And I completely agree that we need to wait for the final eight episodes to judge the fifth season as a whole, as the first half was really a half a season, not a full one. But for the purposes of the Emmys, only those eight episodes will be eligible, so that's what I'm going on.
Stacy Oh, I agree and I did really like the 8 episodes and there is a very good chance I'll be rooting for it next year I'm just still annoyed with the split season, and I know I just need to shut up and accept it.
September 23, 2012 at 1:08AM ESTn
September 22, 2012 at 4:21PM EST Reply to CommentNah, Homeland and Breaking Bad won't take it. It's either Mad Men or Downton Abbey. I go with Mad Men.
De Niro
September 22, 2012 at 7:56PM EST Reply to CommentJohn and Dan: I agree, seasons 3 and 4 were the best seasons of all time. The show is also the best of all time, and I also think it was spectacular from the beggining. Of course for the emmys next year they'll be judged as one separate season.
Ricardo
September 22, 2012 at 8:44PM EST Reply to CommentThe predictability of "Breaking Bad" season 4 puts it in a lower level than season 3. And "Mad Men" is, in my opinion, the best.
unclevanya
September 23, 2012 at 2:13AM EST Reply to CommentNow that I am logged in I will just say all these contenders are great, but the only best is Breaking Bad and Bryan Cranston. Nothing else will make me happy. next year we will see Jonathan Banks win. All the other shows are generic shows we will have to watch for years. Once in awhile a real gem comes along and that is BB. IF it doesn't win it is because these people are afraid of breaking ground .
Jared K
September 23, 2012 at 11:12AM EST Reply to CommentShould Win: Breaking Bad
Also Worthy: Mad Men, Game of Thrones, Homeland
Will Win: Mad Men
Dark Horse: Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey
With the exception of Justified being excluded for Downton Abbey, this field matches my list of the six best dramas on TV, and I would be happy with any one of them winning (again with the exception of Downton Abbey). Having said that, Downton is probably the biggest threat to end Mad Men’s reign – its range of nominations clearly shows that it has strong support across the board, and it does have a win under its belt in the miniseries category from last year. Breaking Bad also clearly has strong support, and probably had the best overall season, but it’s also a darker show that I could see turning off some of the older voters. I thought Homeland was a serious threat before the nominations were announced, but it didn’t sweep the field as much as I thought it would – now I’d be surprised if it won. Game of Thrones is extremely worthy, but you know that there are some people who will never dream of voting for a fantasy show, even one as well-acted and well-produced as this one. Boardwalk Empire was a legitimate threat last year, but now I think it’s just along for the ride.
unclevanya If breaking bad does not win I know it's all PR. On CBS they are talking about Homeland. Breaking Bad is unique and ground breaking. When the Emmy's were announced it was all BB. AMC promotes what they want, Mad Men is continuing and BB is almost over. HBO HAS influence also, having Homeland promoted. It's all about money. Why would they say , he has three Emmy's, give it to Hamm. Sorry, it is not deserved. The best is the best.
September 23, 2012 at 4:23PM ESTunclevanya If breaking bad does not win I know it's all PR. On CBS they are talking about Homeland. Breaking Bad is unique and ground breaking. When the Emmy's were announced it was all BB. AMC promotes what they want, Mad Men is continuing and BB is almost over. HBO HAS influence also, having Homeland promoted. It's all about money. Why would they say , he has three Emmy's, give it to Hamm. Sorry, it is not deserved. The best is the best.
September 23, 2012 at 4:23PM ESTChampSkins
September 23, 2012 at 12:39PM EST Reply to CommentDan is ALL IN on Showtime... I guess if they crush it he looks like a genius.
unclevanya
September 23, 2012 at 4:27PM EST Reply to CommentI have a feeling Alan knows Breaking Bad should win. I have never seen such critical acclaim from such a show. call it Dark , call it what you want, bottom line. call it brilliant.
unclevanya
September 23, 2012 at 4:30PM EST Reply to Comment40% !!! Breaking Bad. Too bad it's not the Olympics . Then we would have the right winner.