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Emmys 2012 Predictions: Outstanding Comedy Series

Is 'Modern Family' a lock to threepeat?

<p>Can any comedy beat "Modern Family" at the Emmys?</p>

Can any comedy beat "Modern Family" at the Emmys?

Credit: ABC

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Dan and I are almost done with our picks for who should and will win the major Emmy categories on Sunday night. In our next-to-last post, it's time to look at the contenders for Outstanding Comedy Series.

Your nominees:

"The Big Bang Theory"
"Curb Your Enthusiasm"
"Girls"
"Modern Family"
"30 Rock"
"Veep"

Should win

Alan's pick: "Parks and Recreation," the best pure comedy on television, isn't here. Nor is "Louie," which isn't exactly a comedy all the time, but is great and was eligible here (as evidenced by its nominations in other comedy categories). Of the ones that are left, I'm choosing between "Girls," which had very promising debut season and didn't feel like anything else on television; "Curb Your Enthusiasm," which had three all-time classic episodes and a bunch of others that weren't all that special; and "30 Rock," which had one of its strongest seasons to date late in the run. I like "Girls" a lot, but I'm gonna go with Liz Lemon and friends, who made me laugh loudly and often throughout those 22 episodes, and forever changed the way I think of banjos.

Dan's pick: "Louie"! No? "Parks and Recreation"! No? Hmmm... Well, it was a very good season for "30 Rock," a somewhat under-the-radar comeback given how acclaimed many of NBC's other comedies are. But does "30 Rock" really need my support? Nah. Probably not. So my imaginary vote goes to "Girls" for successfully navigating a tightrope that saw the show tiptoe right up to the edge of "obnoxious" without ever toppling in the wrong direction. I've been raving about that balancing act since spring and I'd like to support it one last time.

Will win

Alan's pick: Emmy voters love "Modern Family." This is well-established. Its mix of single-camera mockumentary style and more traditional multi-camera jokes gives it broad appeal among many constituencies in the TV Academy. And while I didn't think this season overall was the show's best, there were enough good episodes to make a successful Emmy sampler. "30 Rock" (which did well in the past) or "Curb" could sneak in, but a "Modern Family" threepeat seems like one of the night's more inevitable results.

Dan's pick: Until proven otherwise, it's my assumption that "Modern Family" is unbeatable.

Alan-sepinwall-sm
Alan Sepinwall
Sr. Editor, What's Alan Watching
Alan Sepinwall has been reviewing television since the mid-'90s, first for Tony Soprano's hometown paper, The Star-Ledger, and now for HitFix. His new book, "The Revolution Was Televised," about the last 15 years of TV drama, is for sale at Amazon. He can be reached at sepinwall@hitfix.com

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  • Default-avatar

    rdave

    How did Parks and Rec not even get nominated. Blasphemy!

    September 21, 2012 at 1:45PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      rdave And/or Community?

      September 21, 2012 at 1:46PM EST
    • Shaggy_werewolf_talkback_profile

      That Werewolf Guy Well, in case of COMMUNITY it might have been something to do with season 3 being most of the time awfully bad, thanks to a stronger focus on gimmick episodes and the betrayal of every character in the show. (Pierce becoming a senility punchline, Abed a borderline psychopath, Chang a braindead cartoon villain...) I still hope that it win the comedy script Emmy, because the multiple timeline episode was the one great standout episode of that season.

      September 22, 2012 at 11:28AM EST
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    ronozer

    Modern Family is hugely over-rated, and much of 30 Rock was not good this year. In a fair world Louie or Girls would win. Parks and Rec would be next.

    September 21, 2012 at 2:27PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    ronozer

    Modern Family is hugely over-rated, and much of 30 Rock was not good this year. In a fair world Louie or Girls would win. Parks and Rec would be next.

    September 21, 2012 at 2:27PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    nath

    It makes me groan seeing how Modern Family consistently dominates the nomination lists. I mean, just for example, there's no way two-thirds of the best male comic performances on TV are all in the same show.

    It's like the voters don't even try to give anything interesting or challenging a shot, but I guess I can't be too surprised when the awards for best performances are given out based on one episode and best shows are given out for what, three?

    September 21, 2012 at 5:16PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Gizmo_bigger_talkback_profile

      dan Nath - Why is there no way two-thirds of the best male comic performances on TV are all on the same show? I'm not saying they *are* but if Aaron Paul, Dean Norris, Jonathan Banks and Giancarlo Esposito had all been nominated for supporting actor in a drama, would that have seemed implausible or unfair?

      -Daniel

      September 21, 2012 at 5:21PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      nath Okay, I should clarify-- hypothetically, it's certainly possible, and a show like Breaking Bad that receives universal critical acclaim, especially for the performances, could plausibly have that happen. But even saying that, I think the Emmys should better reflect what is actually quality television, and it *would* seem a little unfair given the number of terrific dramas that deserve at least one nomination-- Mad Men, Boardwalk Empire, Justified, and Game of Thrones just off the top of my head.

      Giving all these nominations to Modern Family seems like they're saying it's basically the only worthwhile comedy on television. And considering the show gave up trying to be interesting about 2/3 of the way through season 1 and has settled into comfortable mediocrity, doing so seems like a case of lazy, status-quo voting.

      September 21, 2012 at 5:26PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      nath "I think the Emmys should better reflect what is actually quality television"

      To clarify, I mean "The Emmys should attempt to represent and recognize the whole range of quality television, and not just fixate on one show unless it is truly head-and-shoulders above the rest."

      September 21, 2012 at 5:30PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Isaac

    Whatever guys, I still love Modern Family. It still makes me laugh every time I see it, I still love the characters and yes, it's not as fresh as it once was, but the cast gives it their all.

    If Community, Louie or Parks and Recreation had been here, it would be a different story, but without them, my vote goes to Modern Family (even though Veep would be another worthy winner, and I really enjoyed this season of Curb Your Enthusiasm). I also thought that The Big Bang Theory, while it had a bumpy go at first, ended the season very strongly with a season finalé that was the best use of the ensemble in years.

    September 22, 2012 at 2:34AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Jared K

    Should Win: Girls
    Also Worthy: 30 Rock

    Will Win: Modern Family
    Dark Horses: Girls, The Big Bang Theory

    Leaving aside my annoyance at the ludicrous absence of Parks and Recreation and the somewhat-less-ludicrous absence of Community and Louie from this category, I would be inclined to reward the most innovative (if not strictly the funniest) show in the category. Girls may be polarizing, but it’s bold, and I’m betting that those voters who like it ‘really’ like it, giving it a solid base of support with which to challenge the frontrunner. Not that I think the frontrunner will be challenged. Not by this field. Modern Family probably has another two or three years left before voters get tired of it. And while this season was a step down, it was still better than The Big Bang Theory.

    September 23, 2012 at 11:09AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Pic_talkback_profile

    forg

    Go Modern Family!

    September 23, 2012 at 1:20PM EST Reply to Comment

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