Within 12 hours, all of these predictions for the 2012 Primetime Emmy Award nominations will be moot. Jimmy Kimmel (a late replacement for Nick Offerman) and Kerry Washington will have read their share of the nominees and the TV Academy will have released the rest and we'll all look foolish.
Maybe we'll all look foolish for having underestimated the appeal of "Smash" to the actor-heavy TV Academy, as the NBC musical-drama scooped up 15 nominations, including nods for the guys who played Ellis and Leo. For now, I've only got Anjelica Huston making the cut.
Maybe I'll look foolish for overestimating potential support for "Girls," which I have picking up a Comedy Series nod and a Lead Actress nod for Lena Dunham, but may prove too insular or too "New York" for Emmy voters.
Maybe we'll all look foolish for not anticipating a "Modern Family" backlash. One of these years, the entire adult cast of the ABC comedy *won't* be nominated for Emmys. I don't think this'll be the year and I've got nominations predicted for everybody, once again. Or maybe this is the year Emmy voters turn on "30 Rock" and boot Tina Fey or Alec Baldwin? I don't think so.
Maybe I'll look foolish for assuming that "Downton Abbey" will build on last year's momentum in the movies/miniseries field and make a strong showing in the drama categories. Or maybe I'll look foolish for not predicting more nominations for "Downton Abbey."
Anyway, that's why you post prediction lists, either to look brilliant or to look foolish. I'm counting on foolishness.
For my final nomination predictions, I'm sticking with the Top 6 I selected in my epic Emmy handicapping galleries. I stared at the fields for many hours to come up with those galleries and spend thousands of words depending those guesses, so I might as well stand by them, even if I no longer remember the reasons for some of those anticipated nods. Like I know why I like Max Greenfield on "New Girl," but why the heck did I put him at No. 6 in my gallery, rather than Nick Offerman? Or why did I predict that all of the Showtime "comedy" leading ladies were going to drop out of that nomination field? I don't know.
But at 5:40 a.m. Pacific tomorrow morning, we'll get our answers.
Here are the full predictions in the 10 main fields, category-by-category (plus Sepinwall's wish-lists):
A long-time member of the TCA Board and a longer-time blogger of "American Idol," Dan Fienberg writes about TV, except for when he writes about movies or sometimes writes about the Red Sox. But never music. He would sound stupid talking about music.