Inside TV+Movies with Daniel Fienberg

Predictions for the 64th Primetime Emmy Awards

All of this summer's Emmy nomination predictions in advance of Thursday's nods

By Daniel Fienberg Wednesday, Jul 18, 2012 11:14 PM

Predictions for the 64th Primetime Emmy Awards

Credit: Matt Sayles/AP

Within 12 hours, all of these predictions for the 2012 Primetime Emmy Award nominations will be moot. Jimmy Kimmel (a late replacement for Nick Offerman) and Kerry Washington will have read their share of the nominees and the TV Academy will have released the rest and we'll all look foolish.

Maybe we'll all look foolish for having underestimated the appeal of "Smash" to the actor-heavy TV Academy, as the NBC musical-drama scooped up 15 nominations, including nods for the guys who played Ellis and Leo. For now, I've only got Anjelica Huston making the cut.

Maybe I'll look foolish for overestimating potential support for "Girls," which I have picking up a Comedy Series nod and a Lead Actress nod for Lena Dunham, but may prove too insular or too "New York" for Emmy voters.

Maybe we'll all look foolish for not anticipating a "Modern Family" backlash. One of these years, the entire adult cast of the ABC comedy *won't* be nominated for Emmys. I don't think this'll be the year and I've got nominations predicted for everybody, once again. Or maybe this is the year Emmy voters turn on "30 Rock" and boot Tina Fey or Alec Baldwin? I don't think so.

Maybe I'll look foolish for assuming that "Downton Abbey" will build on last year's momentum in the movies/miniseries field and make a strong showing in the drama categories. Or maybe I'll look foolish for not predicting more nominations for "Downton Abbey."

Anyway, that's why you post prediction lists, either to look brilliant or to look foolish. I'm counting on foolishness.

For my final nomination predictions, I'm sticking with the Top 6 I selected in my epic Emmy handicapping galleries. I stared at the fields for many hours to come up with those galleries and spend thousands of words depending those guesses, so I might as well stand by them, even if I no longer remember the reasons for some of those anticipated nods. Like I know why I like Max Greenfield on "New Girl," but why the heck did I put him at No. 6 in my gallery, rather than Nick Offerman? Or why did I predict that all of the Showtime "comedy" leading ladies were going to drop out of that nomination field? I don't know.

But at 5:40 a.m. Pacific tomorrow morning, we'll get our answers.

Here are the full predictions in the 10 main fields, category-by-category (plus Sepinwall's wish-lists):

Outstanding-supporting-actress-in-a-drama

Outstanding-supporting-actress-in-a-comedy

Outstanding-supporting-actor-in-a-comedy

Final 2012 Emmy Nomination Predictions

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Daniel Fienberg
Executive Editor

A long-time member of the TCA Board and a longer-time blogger of "American Idol," Dan Fienberg writes about TV, except for when he writes about movies or sometimes writes about the Red Sox. But never music. He would sound stupid talking about music.

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Mike

I think you did a good job overall with the predictions this year even if I disagreed in a few spots. I just think this is the year for Offerman, and as I said at the time, too many fresh choices for comedy lead actress when there is Emmy catnip like Dern and Falco and Linney hanging around, but otherwise, I think you nailed it.

I certainly hope you don't look foolish in terms of support for Smash, and after last year's performance by the Emmys (in the drama categories at the very least) I'm confident in saying that you won't. Look at last year, FNL getting a SERIES nod (and even a well earned win for Coach), Justified getting FOUR acting nods, including Walton finally getting that nom he deserved for years playing Shane Vendrell, they really didn't do a bad job aside from the occassional howler here and there (Hi Kathy Bates!). Maybe it's just a blip, and I'm being optimistic, but I like to think that at least in terms of drama, Emmy is starting to get things right, but now that I'm cautiously optimistic I'm sure I'll be disappointed and Smash will pick up 20 noms and beat Breaking Bad and Mad Men for Drama series.
July 19, 2012 at 12:32AM EST Reply to Comment
- dan Mike - I'd be darned pleased if Offerman could get a nomination! It'd be two or three years too later for his first nod, but I'd still be quite happy! Knock wood...
  
  -Daniel
  July 19, 2012 at 12:44AM EST
Brubarian

Why did Offerman get replaced? Shrieked with joy earlier today when he popped up in season 1 of West Wing.
July 19, 2012 at 1:24AM EST Reply to Comment
- sepinwall His flight got grounded in the Midwest.
  July 19, 2012 at 7:10AM EST
Ricardo

Parks was snubbed! Unbelievable.
July 19, 2012 at 8:48AM EST Reply to Comment
jake

LOL, Uma Thurman nominated for Smash
July 19, 2012 at 9:22AM EST Reply to Comment