Every summer, I spend a couple weeks delving into Emmy nomination predictions. I carefully examine each major category and handicap between 15 and 20 candidates, listing pros and cons and digging deep into precedent.
As a result, I'm pretty good at Emmy predictions. Even when I'm wrong, 9 times out of 10, I know exactly why Emmy voters made the choices they made. I'm not perfect, but I can get inside the head of Average Emmy Joe reasonably well.
I'm not especially good at Golden Globe predictions.
Predicting the Golden Globes is like trying to get inside the head of Claire Danes' "Homeland" character when she's off her meds. After a while, it's all headshots, push-pins and interconnecting yarn.
When you are attempting to predict the actions of an award-giving organization that, in recent years, has nominated folks like Callie Thorne and Thomas Jane and Piper Perabo and Jennifer Love Hewitt, you're not dealing with an easily predictive sense of logic or evaluation.
Yes, Golden Globe voters love pretty people. But to what extreme? My predictions here suggest that Hayden Panettiere has a reasonable shot of being nominated for "Nashville," but have I gone too far? Did I go too far in assuming that as reviled as her performance was, Lindsay Lohan's chances of being nominated for "Liz and Dick" are almost disturbingly good?
As befits an organization of foreign journalists, the Golden Globe voters love nominating big name international actors, whether it be Jeremy Irons or Jonathan Rhys Meyers. So am I going out on a limb in saying that Jonny Lee Miller of "Elementary" is going to be right on the cusp of a nomination?
Dakota Johnson of "Ben and Kate" not only fits the Golden Globes preference towards attractive young actresses verging on stardom, but the daughter of Melanie Griffith and Don Johnson was also Miss Golden Globes a few years back. I don't have her getting a nomination, but if she does, you'll know exactly why.
And on and on.
It's enough to drive a prognosticator mad.
So here are my predictions. I've categorized by "Probable Nominees" (basically locks) and "Strong Candidates" and "Dark Horses." For the most part, the top six names are my formal predictions. Don't take any of it to the bank.
The Golden Globe nominations will be announced on Thursday (December 13) morning.
A long-time member of the TCA Board and a longer-time blogger of "American Idol," Dan Fienberg writes about TV, except for when he writes about movies or sometimes writes about the Red Sox. But never music. He would sound stupid talking about music.