As you may have heard, the Emmy Awards will be presented on Sunday (Aug. 29) night, putting a blissful end to the last couple months of nomination previewing and prognosticating.
HitFix's Greg Ellwood does a tremendous job of handicapping the Oscar sweepstakes, but the lead-up to Oscar is weeks upon weeks of critics awards and guild awards. It's a busy season and the races are constantly evolving and, by the end, a full award-season narrative has developed and not only can you predict all the winners, but you can tell the story of how they got there.
That's not the case with Emmy season. Between the end of the TV year and the nominations in July? There's nothing. Then, between the nomination announcement in July and the actual ceremony? More nothing, unless you count the Television Critics Association Awards, which I do in principle. But it's not like we in the TCA think we have any connection to the Emmys
. Quite the opposite.
So it comes time to predict winners and nothing at all has changed. The folks at The Envelope can pretend that some shows or actors have momentum, but it's the exact same momentum they had back in March.
But we try to predict anyway and often we predict upsets just so that we can say something slightly different from the folks around us. I may get lucky on a couple, but don't think I'd wager my own money on my picks.
Sepinwall already did his Drama picks
and his Comedy choices will be up tomorrow morning. We'll also have an Emmy podcast that'll go up some time tomorrow, all saying the same things.
A couple quick awards of my own:
Easiest category to predict: Either Outstanding Miniseries, with its two nominees (including "The Pacific") or Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series, where it's a pretty safe bet that Jane Lynch is going to win in a walk.
Hardest category to predict: Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Drama Series is just flipping a coin. I think I can say that Archie Panjabi probably won't win, but I could make an argument of some sort in favor of anybody else. I picked Christine Baranski, but I'd be hard pressed to tell you why.
Category most likely to yield a deserving winner: Outstanding Lead Actor In A Drama Series. Laurie? Cranston? Chandler? Hall? Hamm? Fox? OK. OK. OK. OK. OK. And OK. I figure Hall wins, but if he doesn't? That's fine, too.
Category least likely to yield a deserving winner: Outstanding Lead Actress In A Drama Series. Julianna Margulies is good in "The Good Wife." Heck, she's very good. I'd just love to sit every Emmy voter down with the "Balm" episode of "Sons of Anarchy." Then I'd ask for a revote on the nominations in this category.
Unlikely winner who would make me happiest: Aaron Paul's in a category with three or four heavyweights who are relatively deserving in their own right. But if he won on Emmy night, that'd be pretty sweet.
Unlikely winner who would make me most unhappy: Matthew Morrison doesn't stand a chance of winning, but how he came to even be in this field is beyond me.