Who will win 'Survivor San Juan Del Sur'?
"Survivor San Juan Del Sur" heads into its two-hour finale and one-hour reunion tomorrow night with a final five that will go down in "Survivor" history as, well, a final five.
While this season has had some big moves and some particularly satisfying episodes, such as when Drew accidentally orchestrated his own exit by throwing a challenge, it has not been notable for amazing strategy.
If anything, the season and its cast might be most notable for how much they wanted to share: giving up rewards to be nice to each other and even ending a challenge in the middle because they'd already decided on its outcome.
The final six players actually had a shocking plan for the final three that involved sharing it, basically: Baylor and Jaclyn were going to give up their chances to allow their partners, Baylor's mom Missy and Jaclyn's boyfriend Jon, to make it to the end of the game.
Any chance of that outcome ended last week when Natalie and Baylor, with the reluctant help of injured Missy, turned on Jon last week and truly blindsided him.
Without that final five plan in play, the finale will likely come down to who wins challenges. Here's a look at the final five, how they got here, and their chances of winning.
How she got to the final five: with strategic thinking and alliances
Chances of winning: very high, if she can avoid being voted out
Natalie has quickly become a fan favorite, which is ironic to those who knew her before as one half of "The Amazing Race" "Twinnies" duo, as they were most notable for their annoyingness. After her sister was voted out first on "Survivor," though, Natalie stuck around, and eventually emerged as the game's strongest strategic player. While it may have been super-frustrating for fans to watch her warn Jon that he was about to be blindsided, it shows how pragmatic she is, waiting until the right moment to strike. The problem is that she's probably now the biggest target, since just her alliance remains, and she'll have to win some challenges or make great moves to find her way to the end.
How she got to the final five: with Jon, of course
Chances of winning: not great any more
Jacyln and Jon were often the deciding votes at Tribal Council, and their shifting alliances helped steer the game, for better or for worse. But Jaclyn was mostly shown as Jon's other half this season, though there were several moments when she set Jon straight, making sure he understood what was really happening.
But she's not quite a strategist. Witness her question after a previous Tribal Council when she asked, in all seriousness, if Alec had voted for himself. It's an unquestionable given in the "Survivor" rules that contestants cannot vote for themselves. If Jaclyn wins, that'd be kind of amazing/sad. That's unlikely, though, as she'll probably be the first target of the other four.
How he got to the final five: spittin' his way through challenges and votes
Chances of winning: significantly higher than you'd think
Oh, Keith. Keith seems to spit more than he thinks about the game. He wrecked a potential blindside by declaring "stick to the plan" at Tribal Council, basically revealing that there was a plan to blindside Jon. The end result was that Keith's son Wes was voted out. That basically summarizes Keith's game: doing dumb things that have somehow kept him around.
Is there a chance he could win? Amazingly, yes: he's likeable and he's outlasted others, and while that may have mostly been accidental, he at least has an argument to make that he won two individual immunity challenges (and perhaps more). Plus, he has his son on the jury. If he's up against Missy and Baylor, it might even be a landslide.
How she got to the final five: with an injured ankle and a damaged social game
Chances of winning: low
With a social game that includes giving a jury member the finger as he was voted out and a strategic game that involved blindsiding the couple that trusted and liked her the most, Missy is not in a great place going into the finale. And let's not forget that she probably won't win any challenges as a result of her ankle injury.
Except, all of this means she'll probably make it to the final three, because she's the kind of person you want to sit next to at the end: someone who's disliked. That said, Missy has kept herself and her daughter in the game by being somewhat cutthroat throughout the game, and that has the potential to be rewarded.
How she got to the final five: playing hard, making enemies
Chances of winning: even lower than her mom
Like her mom, her social game is questionable. While what we've seen of her is pretty favorable overall -- recently, she's formed a solid alliance with Natalie, and worked to convince her mom to turn against Jon and Jaclyn -- the other castaways seem to have a near-universal opinion that she is, as she's been called, a brat. That makes it highly unlikely she'd win in any scenario.