As the Feb. 10 55th annual Grammy Awards edge closer, we’re analyzing a category a day. Today, we look at Best Urban Contemporary Album.

Best Urban Contemporary Album nominees:
“Fortune,” Chris Brown
“Kaleidoscope Dream,” Miguel
“Channel Orange,” Frank Ocean


WHO’S MISSING: Lots of folks. Usher's“Looking 4 Myself,” for one. At this point, you may be asking yourself why are there only three nominees?  According to Recording Academy rules, a category must receive at least 40 entries for five recordings to receive nominations. If the category receives between 25-39, then only three recordings receive nominations. Maybe the labels applying were as confused about the difference between Best Urban Contemporary Album, a new category this year,  and Best R&B Album as I am. For example, Anthony Hamilton’s “Back to Love” and R. Kelly’s “Write Me Back” are up for Best R&B Album. To complicate matters, Chris Brown won Best R&B Album two years ago. According to the description, Best Urban Contemporary Album goes to a work that “includes more contemporary elements of R&B” and may also elements of other musical forms.

THE PLAYERS: In case you missed it, two of the nominees, Chris Brown and Frank Ocean got in a little dust-up at a Los Angeles recording studio last week, so this has now turned into a bit of a grudge match. Brown, who last won in 2011 for “F.A.M.E.,” didn’t have as much success with “Fortune,” whereas Miguel’s single, “Adorn,” from “Kaleidoscope Dreams,” has spent 20 weeks atop Billboard’s Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs chart.

THE ODDS:
In a just world, this is a race between Miguel and Ocean’s albums, both of which are far superior to Brown’s “Fortune.” Both “Kaleidoscope Dream” and “Channel Orange” are career-making albums and creative tours de force, but Ocean has the greater awareness across multiple genres.

THE WINNER: “Channel Orange,”  Frank Ocean

Previous predictions:

Song of the Year
Best Country Duo/Group Performance
Best Rock Song
Best R&B Performance
Best Pop Vocal Album
Best New Artist