Grammy Awards 2013: Handicapping Best Rock Song

Bruce Springsteen

Credit: AP Photo

As the Feb. 10 55th annual Grammy Awards edge closer, we’re analyzing a category a day. Today, we look at Best Rock Song.

Best Rock Song Nominees:
Jack White - "Freedom at 21"
Mumford & Sons - "I Will Wait"
The Black Keys - "Lonely Boy"
Muse - "Madness"
Bruce Springsteen - "We Take Care of Our Own"

THE PLAYERS: When I think of songs from Jack White’s “Blunderbuss,” “Freedom at 21” doesn’t immediately come to mind as the first choice for the rock song category, but this is how it works: in an effort to get as many nominations as possible, labels submit different songs for different categories because a song can’t be nominated in different genres. For example, the same song can’t be up for best rock song and best R&B song. The exceptions are record and song of the year in the general category.  Anyway, I’m not sure why the Grammy voters went with “Freedom At 21” instead of “16 Saltines” or “Love Interruption,” as there aren’t other song categories for those.

THE ODDS: Even though he’s never won an album of the year Grammy, Springsteen has dominated the rock categories, including winning best rock song four times since the category was added in 1992. White also won previously for the White Stripes‘  “Seven Nation Army.”  The Black Keys were nominated in 2011 for “Tighten Up,” the same year Mumford & Sons lost for “Little Lion Man.”  M&S was also nominated last year in this category for “The Cave.” Muse was also up in 2011 for “Resistance” (Interestingly, the band won best rock album that year, but lost best rock song). So you have a lot of vets in this category, but the odds are in Springsteen’s favor, given the Grammy’s older votership, the topical nature of the song, and the fact that he opened last year’s show with the song and is this year’s MusiCares Person of the Year recipient.

THE WINNER: Bruce Springsteen, “We Take Care of Our Own.”

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS:

Best R&B Performance
Best Pop Vocal Performance
Best New Artist