The Lists: Top 10 first-half Oscar contenders
What early releases deserve recognition come January 2013?
Rachel Weisz in "The Deep Blue Sea."
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It hardly feels like it, but we're already over a week into the back end of 2012's release calendar: technically, we've seen approximately half the films that will be eligible for awards consideration at the year's end.
Not that the eventual list of this year's Academy Award nominations will reflect as much, of course. It's a well-known law of the awards game that early releases tend to suffer most in the Oscar game, as voters with notoriously short memories forget notable accomplishments from the January-to-June window, while studios, mindful of that fact, barrage them with baity prestige fare in the year's final quarter. Occasionally, a "Crash," a "Hurt Locker" or a "Silence of the Lambs" bucks the odds and hangs in for the long haul, but it takes sustained critical and/or public conversation and cunning campaign savvy to do so -- the work, as ever in this business, is almost never enough.
This year looks to be particularly cruel to first-half releases. Thanks to lasting festival buzz at Sundance and Cannes, consolidated by glowing reviews upon its theatrical release last month, "Beasts of the Southern Wild" is bound to be in the conversation at the year's end, but very little else looks like a sure thing.
Some will take that as an indictment of the general quality of 2012 releases to date, but that shouldn't be the case. Look a little closer, and you'll see that it's actually been a varied and invigorating six months at the movies, running the gamut from surprisingly well-reviewed studio tentpoles ("The Avengers," "The Hunger Games") to mid-range sleepers ("21 Jump Street," "Magic Mike") to classy arthouse fare ("Damsels in Distress," "Moonrise Kingdom")... and that's without even crossing US borders. Many of these may not qualify as Academy-friendly, but that's not to say they're any less deserving than any number of upcoming prestige titles.
All in all, there's a rich enough selection of quality work that Kris and I felt a Top 10 list was in order, highlighting the early-bird films and individuals we'd most like to see acknowledged when awards season rolls around. (Regular readers might recall my annual First-Half FYC series on the same subject -- look at this as a taster for that.) Some of them have a chance of sticking around, others are pie-in-the-sky fantasies, but all of them merit consideration.
We settled on one personal favorite in 10 different categories, a brief that still left many worthy names on the sidelines. Honorable mentions include: Sarah Polley's "Take This Waltz," with its heartrending performances by Michelle Williams and Seth Rogen; Tom Cruise's wickedly clever self-parody in "Rock of Ages"; the directorial and editorial poise of "Miss Bala"; Kristin Scott Thomas's snappy, film-redeeming support in "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen"; Paul Rudd's ingenious comic pyrotechnics in "Wanderlust"; the stormy, expansive lensing of "The Hunter" and Linda Cardellini's flinty selflessness in "Return." Not to mention any number of outstanding foreign-language titles that will never get the respect they deserve, from Russia's "Elena" to Chile's "Post Mortem" to Japan's "I Wish."
So look on the list below as a mere conversation starter -- or rather, a conversation retainer, a reminder not to get too dazzled by the bright lights of the autumn and winter heavyweights. Please share your thoughts -- and, of course, your own first-half standouts -- in the comments section.
2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupDuncan Houst
July 10, 2012 at 12:30PM EST Reply to CommentFantastic choices all the way through. Myself, I'd have included Greta Gerwig's meticulously peculiar performance in "Damsels in Distress", Lucas Pittaway's shy and devastating debut in "Snowtown", David Holmes' spy-film inspired and entertaining score for "Haywire", "Take This Waltz"'s warm yet dizzying cinematography, the sound mixing in "Brave", and Jennifer Aniston's equally hilarious as Rudd performance in "Wanderlust".
Evan Ditto on the Take this Waltz cinematography. I loved the costume choices too though they would never stand a chance at the Oscars.
July 10, 2012 at 1:48PM ESTDuncan Houst Well the Academy rarely peers too deeply into "costumes-to-fit-the-characters", and is far too often about the spectacle. I think that will work in favor of "Mirror Mirror", which absolutely should win. Still, I agree 100% on "Take This Waltz", mostly regarding Margot's costumes.
July 10, 2012 at 3:36PM ESTthekingbulletin
July 10, 2012 at 12:40PM EST Reply to CommentLove that you're sticking strong with "The Grey," Kris. I recall you mentioning it briefly earlier in the year, but I wasn't quite sure how deep your admiration ran. Glad to learn that it's this high on your list -- even if it is probably one of the more unlikely Oscar choices on the list -- because it too has remained a firm 2012 staple for me.
Guy Lodge Should mention that the list isn't in preferential order -- too apples-and-oranges for that -- but in ascending order of category profile.
July 10, 2012 at 12:47PM ESTthekingbulletin Duly noted. I know now that reading one or two selections at a time during the workday is not the best way to grasp the list's progression :).
July 10, 2012 at 12:59PM ESTAndrej
July 10, 2012 at 12:59PM EST Reply to CommentI liked The Grey alright, but at times it felt like a tribute to Liam Neeson's natural badassery and little else. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but overall it's funnier than it's deeper, and by fun alone I'd rather see the Avengers nominated for BP. Although a best actor nod for Neeson would be awesome no matter what.
I'd also add Comic-Con Episode IV: A Fan's Hope and Marley to the Best Documentary talk, even if This is not a Film's looking like the one to beat. It's a pretty good doc, but I wonder how many of its glowing reviews are out of their siding to Pahani and his cause rather than the (not a) film's virtues. It's a very insightful piece, but it's inevitably vloggy and monotonous too.
Guy Lodge It may be a critics' favourite, but I hardly think This Is Not A Film is "the one to beat." Indeed, I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if it's even nominated.
July 10, 2012 at 1:24PM ESTMicguar I think you're really underrating the virtues of The Grey. It was a lot deeper than the marketing, and even most fans of the movie, made it out to be. There were some serious philosophical underpinnings to that film, ones that were often not noticed by viewers who were unable to look beyond its action-movie surface. I'd recommend Ignatiy Vishnevetsky's analysis on Mubi.com for a good reading of the film. A lot of genre films are overlooked when they're first released in favor of "prestige" pictures, despite in some cases possessing greater technical qualities than those prestige pictures and often being more subtle about their themes or ideologies. Remember that most of the now-classic westerns and films noir from years ago were unrecognized B-pictures in their day.
July 10, 2012 at 6:59PM ESTAndrej It's deep and fun enough, but its got them uneven. It has at least a couple of the most humanly impactful scenes I've seen in a while (one of them looking like a serious contender for one of Kris's Best Shots of 2012), but then the CGI horse-sized wolves show up, followed by some rappeling, trekking and scavenging... and it kinda turns into a movie version of Man vs. Wild. It'd help if the other characters were as well written as Neeson's was, because they're not a whole lot more more than just cannon fodder next to him.
July 11, 2012 at 12:52AM ESTSpeaking of the wolves, I checked out the Vishnevetsky analysis -- it's all good, but his defense of the CGI wolves as part of a metaphor is a bit dodgy to me: The Day After Tomorrow also used questionable-looking CGI wolves, but this one gets an artistic pass?
Also, on topic: I just checked out Detachment recently: Best Actor for Adrien Brody, by all means! And its score is gorgeous, too.
micguar The wolves (at least in my estimation) aren't really meant to be representations of wolves, so why should they look real? The fact that they don't look real reinforces that they aren't real, with the aim of getting the viewer to think about they're supposed to be if they're not supposed to be literal wolves. I'd say it's a kind of Brechtian alienation effect.
July 11, 2012 at 1:58AM ESTAndrej Yeah, but when the whole movie details with certain degree of realism all the perils they encounter, the CGI wolves stand out like a sore thumb, and even if they're intentionally fake-looking, they're not visually convincing either. A different approach would have helped to drive that argument better, I think (practical effects?).
July 11, 2012 at 10:03AM ESTLiz
July 10, 2012 at 1:03PM EST Reply to CommentI very much admired Rachel Weisz in The Deep Blue Sea, but I was surprised to discover that my favorite performance in the movie actually came from Simon Russell Beale.
Some of my other first-half favorites: Thomas Doret and Cecile de France in The Kid with a Bike, Adam Scott and Jon Hamm in Friends with Kids, and Emily Blunt and Rosemarie DeWitt in Your Sister's Sister.
Also, The Five-Year Engagement is probably my favorite movie of the year so far after Moonrise Kingdom. I'm seriously disappointed by its overall lukewarm reception, considering that I think it's far superior to several other Apatow-associated movies that were bigger hits.
Guy Lodge Agree with you that Beale is superb in the film, and proud to say that the London Critics' Circle nominated him for Best Supporting Actor last year -- to my knowledge, the only group to single him out.
July 10, 2012 at 1:26PM ESTRev. Slappy
July 10, 2012 at 1:11PM EST Reply to Comment21 Jump Street was awful, easily the worst movie I've seen this year.
Guy Lodge Consider yourself lucky, then.
July 10, 2012 at 1:27PM ESTChris138
July 10, 2012 at 1:14PM EST Reply to CommentCouldn't agree more with the inclusions of Matthew McConaughey and Jack Black. Also happy to see that The Grey hasn't been forgotten. Depressing as hell but it stuck with me for quite a while.
Joe W
July 10, 2012 at 1:23PM EST Reply to CommentNice choices. Although I'd personally add in Cruise for Rock of Ages (haven't seen Magic Mike yet). Good calls on The Grey (Liam's best performance since Schindler's List) and 21 Jump Street. Great movies.
TJ
July 10, 2012 at 1:30PM EST Reply to CommentIt would be great to see The Grey get some attention. It really really stuck with me. The unrealistic wolves would be a part of any eventual backlash, but I saw it as more of a monster movie--the wolves could just as well have been aliens. It was about the internal struggle within each of the surprisingly well-drawn characters. Like The Edge by way of Drive, or what Predators could have been in more talented hands.
I realize that Intouchables isn't going to get any real attention, but is it eligible for this year's Oscars, or did it get a release last year somewhere? I loved it almost completely, and even if the movie isn't getting universal acclaim, I could definitely see Omar Sy getting some real notices--he's amazing.
Beef Supreme
July 10, 2012 at 1:48PM EST Reply to CommentWow, "The Grey"? I thought I was the only one that loved that movie. I had expected an action movie though, and it's really just a drama with the (sadly rather too fantastically portrayed) wolves as the catalyst. I think the marketing might have done itself a disservice by pushing the action aspect of it, but then again it might have been an impossible sell otherwise. Good to see it getting a mention here, and I hope it's remembered come awards time, especially Neeson's acting.
Liz I liked The Grey, but I wish that the wolves would have been cut out of the story entirely. There was more than enough material there for a man vs. the elements story by itself, and the wolves threatened to push the movie into silly monster-movie territory for me, considering that they don't really act like any wolves that you'd find in that area.
July 10, 2012 at 2:44PM ESTBut like you said, that would have been the movie a much harder sell.
Parrill
July 10, 2012 at 2:11PM EST Reply to CommentTHE GREY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I mean. Yeah, that's a good choice.
JR
July 10, 2012 at 3:44PM EST Reply to CommentIt was love it or hate it, and way too violent for the Academy's tastes... but Benicio Del Toro and Salma Hayek give award-worthy performances in "Savages".
JJ1 Particularly Hayek. It's the film's most interesting, dynamic, and multi-dimensional role. And Hayek seems to be having a lot of fun with it.
July 12, 2012 at 8:49AM ESTGuy Lodge Haven't seen Savages yet, but I do think Hayek does the best work of her career in Americano, also out now.
July 12, 2012 at 9:38AM ESTmovieman
July 10, 2012 at 7:06PM EST Reply to CommentNo Best Supporting Actor for Fassbender in Prometheus? C'mon! That should be obvious.
Kristopher Tapley Meh.
July 10, 2012 at 7:10PM ESTDuncan Houst I admit that Fassbender transcends the film, but in all honesty that's not such a huge effort. For me he didn't even register into the top ten performances so far this year. There are simply more worthy things to fight for.
July 10, 2012 at 7:44PM EST
Movie is too polarizing. He'd never make it through. And no way big Fox spends the money to campaign him.
July 11, 2012 at 2:01AM ESTGuy Lodge To be fair, I'm guessing Movieman's initial comment was more a wish than a prediction?
July 11, 2012 at 7:16AM ESTmovieman A wish, yes. I meant that he should be on your list, not that I actually think he'll be nominated. Meh? You're slowly becoming the new Devin Faraci, Tapeworm.
July 11, 2012 at 10:38AM ESTFassbender has obviously given better performances (Shame, Hunger), but in my opinion he gave the best performance in a big studio picture so far this year. Well, he and Jennifer Lawrence.
JJ1 While Prometheus made good money and had many positive reviews, I think that if it was a bigger hit, better received/accepted, had more buzz, and came out late in the year, Fassbender would and should have a shot. It's a flawed movie, but I thought he gave an excellent performance.
July 12, 2012 at 8:52AM ESTBradley Porter
July 10, 2012 at 9:32PM EST Reply to CommentI've said it before, and I'll continue to say it again... MID YEAR VOTING! So simple.
http://www.eatsleeplivefilm.com/aisle-say-how-to-fix-the-oscars/
JLPatt
July 10, 2012 at 10:56PM EST Reply to Comment"Brave" for Sound Mixing/Editing, Score, and Song.
JJ1 I'd say yes to Mixing and Song.
July 12, 2012 at 8:53AM ESTLeocdc
July 11, 2012 at 1:03AM EST Reply to CommentI have to say thanks for recognizing one of my favourites of this season: The Grey. An artistic winner of suspense and visuals, and a richly tematic movie, at the same time.
PD: Today I saw Monsieur Lazhar, and took the first place to The Raid: Redemption (who was tied with The Grey in the first place) for best film of 2012.
Beautiful, tender and deeply emotional, that film took my breath away with its personal and powerful story, and its amazing performances.
Oh!! I also loved Margaret, but wasn't that happy with the final editing. However I have to say that actings and screenplays don't get better than that.
Great movies all over the place :)
Guy Lodge By the "final editing," do you mean the theatrical cut, or the extended DVD version? I'm interested.
July 11, 2012 at 7:17AM ESTLeocdc I mean theatrical cut (the 150-minutes version). I'm waiting to see the extended one. I don't know if the arrhytmic cuts between scenes are purposely, or are lack of good editing (I tend to thinks is for the second reason). However Paquin should have easily got her 2nd Oscar last year.
July 11, 2012 at 4:13PM ESTDooby
July 11, 2012 at 1:31AM EST Reply to CommentExcellent choices - ones I'd definitely like to support are Louise Harris (as well as the even more astonishing Daniel Hensall and a stunning film), Rachel Weisz who is without a doubt my favourite performance of the year so far and The Grey which is my favourite film of the year at the moment.
Standout films of the year so far for me are The Deep Blue Sea, Kill List, The Snowtown Murders and The Grey.
Guy Lodge I meant to put Neil Maskell from Kill List in my honourable mentions list -- I remain not entirely sold on the film, but he's quite brilliant in it.
July 11, 2012 at 7:19AM ESTDooby Interesting - MyAnna Buring and George Smiley were my main takeaways in terms of acting, but if I had to pick an element to praise it would be its unconventional but effective editing.
July 11, 2012 at 6:16PM ESTIn an unrelated note, What were your own thoughts on The Grey and the other Soderbergh picture Haywire Guy?
Guy Lodge Michael Smiley, I think you mean. ;)
July 12, 2012 at 9:37AM ESTI haven't actually seen The Grey yet, and intend to rectify that, stat. Haywire was great fun and utterly disposable, I thought.
red_wine
July 11, 2012 at 11:40AM EST Reply to CommentThe elephant in the room...
Best Picture for The Avengers
Best Director, Cinematography for The Turin Horse
Best Actress, Screenplay for Damsels In Distress
Best Director, Screenplay for The Kid With A Bike
Best Director, Screenplay, Cinematography for Once Upon A Time In Anatolia
Best Art Direction, Costume Design for Mirror Mirror
Kris, Guy, I don't recollect if you have done it yet but impending the release of a certain movie, you can do a list of best trilogies.
Silencio
July 11, 2012 at 1:04PM EST Reply to CommentI would like to keep a candle lit for Chronicle. It hit me unlike the other films I've seen this year, though there are far too many still on my to-see list.
crossie
July 12, 2012 at 2:08AM EST Reply to CommentPlease, Kris, do not shut up about "The Grey." Best Picture all the way.
Maybe some savvy award baiter can make the "it came out in January" into a thing.
tesh
July 12, 2012 at 12:42PM EST Reply to CommentFWIW, my 2012 movie rankings, so far (rough). What are yours?
19. The Deep Blue Sea (C+)
18. Magic Mike (B-)
17. Monsieur Lazhar (B)
16. Marvel's The Avengers (B)
15. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (B/B+)
14. The Hunger Games (B/B+)
13. The Amazing Spider-Man (B+)
12. Shanghai (B+)
11. Turn Me on, Dammit! (B+/A-)
9. Footnote (B+/A-)
9. 21 Jump Street (B+/A-)
8. Prometheus (B+/A-)
7. Cabin in the Woods (B+/A-)
6. Moonrise Kingdom (A-/B+)
5. Beasts of the Southern Wild (A-)
4. The Secret World of Arrietty (A-/A)
3. The Grey (A-/A)
1. Oslo, August 31st (A/A-)
1. The Kid with a Bike (A/A-)
WMLJ
July 24, 2012 at 2:56PM EST Reply to CommentAbsolutely agree on The Grey. What seemed from the trailers like "Liam Neeson beats up wolves" turned out to be an emotional, gripping story that should have Best Picture written all over it, not to mention Neeson's performance.