Taking questions for 9/21 Oscar Talk
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You know the drill. Offer up your need-to-knows in the comments and we'll try to address a few questions at the end of this week's podcast. We will already be addressing Oscar's date changes, "Trouble with the Curve," "The Perks of Being a Wallflower" and foreign language submissions.
Kristopher Tapley has covered the film awards landscape for over a decade. He founded In Contention in 2005. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Times of London and Variety. He begs you not to take any of this too seriously.
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2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
UPDATED: FEB 25, 2013
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Next 87 CommentsD2
September 18, 2012 at 11:59PM EST Reply to CommentHave you heard anything about that supposed campaign Open Road was going to do for Liam Neeson's performance in The Grey by re-releasing the film, etc. ...?
Ethan
September 19, 2012 at 12:00AM EST Reply to CommentIs there any buzz around Samantha Barks in Les Miserables? Her role is usually the one people go crazy over in the musical. Could she break through, or is she too unknown?
Jonnybon No one is too unknown when it comes to massive hits like Les Mis will be.
September 19, 2012 at 7:17AM ESTTelio
September 19, 2012 at 12:01AM EST Reply to CommentSupposedly there was a Lincoln screening tonight. Any word on the film's quality/performances in industry circles?
chilledstate
September 19, 2012 at 12:03AM EST Reply to CommentIs "Side by Side" elibible for the documentary feature? If so, how is the possibility of getting nominated? Thanks.
Christian
September 19, 2012 at 12:03AM EST Reply to CommentWhy is there so little talk about "Lawless" as an Oscar contender, specifically Tom Hardy and Guy Pearce in the acting categories? I know the movie didn't get uniformly strong reviews and was counted out at Cannes, but among those I've talked to who have seen the film during its U.S. theatrical run, there's enthusiasm for Hardy and Pearce -- even for the movie itself, although it's the actors who are the focus of Oscar speculation.
Jane It's probably too genre, right? And Hardy isn't enough of a star to land a nomination for a mediocre film that didn't do great business. Lead actor is an extremely competitive category this year.
September 19, 2012 at 12:25PM ESTLaura Stewart I finally saw Lawless last week... way too slow and dragged out. Oddly, I thought Shia was best in show (at least coming from a Tom Hardy fan). Very disposable female characters, tho :(.
September 19, 2012 at 4:34PM ESTWill h
September 19, 2012 at 12:04AM EST Reply to CommentI don't disagree with Kris about te film, but what do you two think about the possibility of Michael Fassbender getting a Robert Downey Jr-like Supporting Actor nom for Prometheus? He got great reviews for that movie, and in a year with such diffuse acting categories so far, do you think the studio could get him in?
Guy Lodge I'm confused: what about a Fassbender/Prometheus nomination would be Robert Downey Jr-like? Are you simply referring to Prometheus and Tropic Thunder both being mainstream summer releases? Because otherwise, I see no parallels.
September 19, 2012 at 8:20AM ESTJJ1 Good question. I thought Fassbender was excellent in a movie that got good reviews (some great, some awful). The movie did very good business. It just seems like a recipe for a campaign.
September 19, 2012 at 9:24AM ESTJane There's no way Fox will spend money to campaign for him and Fassbender wouldn't campaign anyway. It was quite obvious he was fed up with the little campaigning he did last year.
September 19, 2012 at 12:20PM ESTRDJ's huge redemptive comeback, long history in Hollywood, and the massive success of Iron Man were major factors in his nomination. MF's still just some rising arthouse actor with way less visibility and popularity than cinephiles think he has.
Will h @Guy
September 19, 2012 at 1:34PM ESTYeah. That's basically it. Fassbender in Prometheus and RDJ in Tropic Thunder were two fairly celebrated performances in mainstream Hollywood summer product. I don't remember vividly, but I don't think people initially thought a nomination was in the cards for RDJ. It's a tenuous connection, I know, but it is just what immediately came to mind. Just thought it was something interesting to consider, don't really think it would actually happen.
DylanS Yes, but Downey got singled out far more frequently than Fassbender did. And also, in spite of Kirk Lazarus/Lincoln O Sirus being a comedic performance, it was a full on actors showcase. As much as I would like to see Fassbender get nominated for "Prometheus" I couldn't picture it at this point.
September 19, 2012 at 2:09PM EST/3rt
September 19, 2012 at 12:07AM EST Reply to CommentFor Viola Davis, does category placement determine award season goodwill for Won't Back Down?
Alex L. Won't Back Down is the worst movie I've seen all year and she's actually not that good in it...
September 19, 2012 at 4:54PM ESTLola
September 19, 2012 at 12:13AM EST Reply to CommentDoes Moonrise Kingdom have a chance at a Best Picture nomination still , especially if some contenders to come fall ? will it be forgotten or can screeners from Focus renew interest ?
Kyle Fuller
September 19, 2012 at 12:22AM EST Reply to CommentWith Jennifer Lawrence now a frontrunner, is there a possibility that her foray into 'teen movie' territory with The House at the End of the Street and The Hunger games could cast her in a less serious light for the Academy, or position her as a jack of all trades superstar slash industry saviour that needs to be rewarded for her diversity?
Laura Stewart 2 words, one result: "The Sitter" --> Oscar nominee, Johan Hill.
September 19, 2012 at 4:35PM ESTAndre_Moto
September 19, 2012 at 12:23AM EST Reply to CommentI saw Frances Ha at Telluride and loved it. Will IFC release it this year? and is there any possibility for an actress and/or screenplay nominations?
Daniel23
September 19, 2012 at 12:44AM EST Reply to Commentdoes bradley cooper have a shot at best actor? who would drop out if he got in?
does marion cotillard still have a shot at best actress, now that rust and bone has lost out to intouchables as france's submission?
do you think `les miserables' wall to wall sung dialogue will hurt its chances at a best pic nom? are there any precedents for wall to wall musicals winning best pic?
DylanS to your second question. "Persepolis" was the French submission in the year that "La Vie en Rose" was passed over, and that disqualification certainly didn't stop her for getting nominated, let alone form winning.
September 19, 2012 at 2:11PM ESTBJT
September 19, 2012 at 12:46AM EST Reply to CommentHello Kris,
In last weeks podcast both you and Anne said that when at festivals you tend to cater your schedules to catching baity or buzzy films. Makes sense - it's your job...
I was wondering if you weren't in the Oscar prognosticating game would you be making the same choices of what to see.
Also, for those of us on limited budgets, which 4 or 5 films coming out over the next few months would you recommend, want to see, regardless of their Oscar potential?
Cheers
Danny
September 19, 2012 at 12:48AM EST Reply to CommentWhen "Beasts of the Southern Wild" came out I was surprised by how many acquaintances and friends made a point of saying how much they loved it, more than I have experienced for any other film so far this year. It still ranks as my personal favorite of the the year so far. Was the enthusiasm as great in Industry/Academy circles; and if so, can it be sustained or rekindled for Oscars with a well-timed dvd release?
eoindaly2k11
September 19, 2012 at 12:57AM EST Reply to CommentWith the recent push back of Les Miserabes what the other films do you think could be pushed back to 2013? (I believe Django will be pushed back)
hatter
September 19, 2012 at 1:18AM EST Reply to CommentWhat may be the chances that The Dark Knight Rises may be entirely shut out? I was utterly disappointed by the film...
Btw, I think The Sessions is having an Original Screenplay, looking at IMDB, its posters and official synopsis.
Guy Lodge I'm told The Sessions is based on a magazine article. IMDb is not always reliable in these matters.
September 19, 2012 at 8:24AM ESTchristine Yup, Ben Lewin himself said after the movie's TIFF screening it's based on an article penned by Mark O'Brien himself
September 19, 2012 at 6:24PM ESTSteve G Reply to comment...
September 19, 2012 at 11:21PM ESTSteve G Oops. I meant to post:
September 19, 2012 at 11:22PM ESTIt looks like the article ('On seeing a sexual surrogate' by Mark O'Brien) is reproduced here:
http://noteasybeingred.tumblr.com/post/16646893808/on-seeing-a-sex-surrogate-mark-obrian
Mike The Cleaner
September 19, 2012 at 1:27AM EST Reply to CommentWhich Lincoln supporting actor would you say has the best shot at a nomination?
Does Jack Black have any shot at even a dark horse nod for Bernie?
Can James Gandolfini sneak in either for Not Fade Away or Killing Me Softly for best supporting actor?
SJG
September 19, 2012 at 2:08AM EST Reply to CommentA lot of discussion around (potential) Best Picture nominees tends to be focused on which one "best captures the Zeitgeist", and we're already hearing talk along those lines with regards to films like "Argo," "The Master," and "Zero Dark Thirty" (and maybe others).
How often do you guys think the "Zeitgest" movie actually wins the award, though? Any movies in the past decade? "The Social Network" comes to mind as a movie that was supposed to benefit from being "zeitgesty" but it fell short, and I'm not convinced that any movie in the past decade has really benefited from that kind of talk.
JoseRC
September 19, 2012 at 2:40AM EST Reply to CommentWith such a weak slate in the supporting actress race and given Salma Hayek's strong impression in Savages, do you think she could start coming back in conversations? Hitflix's own Gregory said she's Oscar-worthy.
JJ1 Good question. It was such a juicy role, and I'd say she nailed it.
September 19, 2012 at 9:32AM ESTDooby Savages is going no where near Oscar but yes, Hayek was stunning. Startlingly good in an awful film.
September 20, 2012 at 4:46PM ESTPaul Outlaw
September 19, 2012 at 4:02AM EST Reply to CommentKris, how do you anticipate your move to NYC affecting your coverage of the season as we get closer and closer to the 85th Academy Awards?
The3rdNipple
September 19, 2012 at 4:35AM EST Reply to CommentWhat do you guys think of Roger Ebert receiving a lifetime achievement oscar at some point?
The3rdNipple
September 19, 2012 at 4:45AM EST Reply to CommentI thought the opening credits sequence of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo kind've set the mood/tone of the film. This got me thinking: as preposterous as it sounds, would the academy ever consider an oscar category for opening credits/title sequence?
Edwin I remember people asking the same thing after "Catch Me If You Can," but I can't see it happening. There simply aren't enough movies that have elaborate credits sequences for the category to be competitive.
September 19, 2012 at 2:30PM ESTctubuchanan
September 19, 2012 at 6:37AM EST Reply to CommentWhat do you think of Django Unchained? Can it get nominated for Best Picture? Or will it be too Tarantinoesque. what about DiCaprio? Any hope for a nom/win there?
Laura Stewart Is the film screening anytime soon or is Tarantino still editing? I forgot when it finished filming but it seems like it was just yesterday ha.
September 19, 2012 at 4:36PM ESTJonnybon
September 19, 2012 at 7:19AM EST Reply to CommentCan Omar Sy crash the Best Actor party? Because he should.
Evan I would totally go for that even though I'm 'meh' on the film.
September 19, 2012 at 11:30AM ESTDuncan Houst
September 19, 2012 at 7:45AM EST Reply to CommentMuch of the talk around "Rust and Bone" has been for Marion Cotillard in Best Actress, and that's clearly where Sony Pictures Classics will be focusing their campaign. The performance that struck me most was Matthias Schoenaerts, and though it's rather unlikely, I was curious if either of you thought there was hope for him in the Best Actor race?
JJ1 Curious to hear thoughts on this, too
September 19, 2012 at 9:50AM ESTwillanka
September 19, 2012 at 9:59AM EST Reply to CommentI've read many comments that now when France submited The Intouchables, Marion Cotillard's chances to be nominated are lower and some even say it's impossible for her to get in. Altought I still think her performance is good enough to get Marion nomination at least. What do you think about that?
Guy Lodge Not to step on Kris and Anne's turf, but remember that La Vie en Rose was passed over as France's foreign Oscar submission too. Her chances weren't exactly diminished then, were they?
September 19, 2012 at 11:41AM ESTDylanS Haha, this is exactly what I said to a similar question above.
September 19, 2012 at 2:13PM ESTBigTallDrew
September 19, 2012 at 10:32AM EST Reply to CommentThere seems to be a larger number of category placement questions this year. Is there any word about where Universal will be campaigning Russell Crowe for Les Miserables as well as Fox with Viola Davis in Won't Back Down?
I know you've previously discussed the category placement for Phillip Seymour Hoffman from The Master, the dames from The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, and Helen Hunt in The Sessions, but I wasn't sure about those two as well.
Kristopher Tapley Noted this in the Les Mis piece the other day but Crowe will be campaigned supporting, FYI. Hugh will be the only lead. Not sure on Davis but probably lead.
September 20, 2012 at 9:06PM ESTBigTallDrew Thanks Kris. To be honest, I didn't see that coda at the end of the Les Mis piece, but thanks for the clarification.
September 20, 2012 at 11:28PM ESTDaniel
September 19, 2012 at 10:36AM EST Reply to CommentDo you guys think the fact that the Weinsteins come from two straight victories (King's speech, Artist) might hurt their 2012 crop's chances? As in (given examples of what we know now), some Academy members would be more inclined to vote for Argo instead of The Master or Silver Linings Playbook so a third win wouldn't configure a defacto "Weinstein Monopoly" over the Oscars in this decade?
Guy Lodge Good question.
September 19, 2012 at 11:42AM ESTJoey
September 19, 2012 at 11:13AM EST Reply to CommentHow strong is a public's response when it comes to movies actually winning Oscars? I know box office and word of mouth are strong factors for movies like The Blind Side to get nominated, but I was primarily asking about Les Miserables. It is one of the most beloved musicals of all time, and I was wondering if that translated to a movie winning a top prize.
Evan
September 19, 2012 at 11:28AM EST Reply to CommentWhat's the deal with Promised Land? In Contention seems to be theonly site with it on the radar.
Also, I'm sure you'll discuss this at some point, but just to be sure: I say that The Intouchables is too simple and comedic for Oscar. I'm noteven sure it will make the nominees list... or maybe even the shortlist. What say you?
D2 Wouldn't it be funny if the guy who couldn't score an Emmy nomination for what used to be TV's biggest comedy (The Office) scored an Oscar nomination (for writing) an under-the-radar film? Go figure....
September 19, 2012 at 11:31AM ESTforg
September 19, 2012 at 11:38AM EST Reply to CommentDo you think the Academy will bring back the performances for the original song nominees?
forg I mean performances in the awards night
September 19, 2012 at 11:39AM EST- 1
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