Sundance 2013: Which films might find Oscar traction next season?
Is there a 'Beasts'-level success in the mix?
"Before Midnight" is, for my money, the most likely awards player out of this year's Sundance.
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PARK CITY - There are still five days left in this year's Sundance fest, but I'm out of here tomorrow, so it's time to start winding coverage down. And one thing worth considering is the potential awards season impact of this year's 35th annual.
By now the story of "Beasts of the Southern Wild" is a bit legendary, dropping at Sundance 2012 and riding a big wave throughout the year to major Oscar acclaim. All eyes are turned toward potential players at this year's fest, and distributors are digging deep on buys throughout. So what could come of it?
Perhaps the most significant potential players are Roadside Attractions' "Mud" and the currently distributor-less "Before Midnight." The former features a major performance from Matthew McConaughey that could certainly stir Best Actor buzz later in the year (or perhaps add fuel to the fire of his other two upcoming performances in 2013). Youngster Tye Sheridan will likely get the usual child-lead-turned-supporting push (though we'll see if that actually happens -- you could easily pitch McConaughey for supporting in this one), while the crafts throughout are quality. Jeff Nichols's original screenplay deserves to be on the radar, for sure. I hope I'm not just full of wishful thinking here, though. I am, you know, a fan.
"Before Midnight," meanwhile, features a better, more potent script than the Oscar-nominated "Before Sunset" and is a film met with appreciation across the board here. No one has bit yet, though Lionsgate was circling. And if indeed they pick it up, maybe they do so for Roadside and it becomes a handsome stable-mate for "Mud." Either way, the screenplay and, most assuredly, Julie Delpy's lead performance, will be in the mix this time next year. I feel confident of that.
There are some performances that have sparked, from Michael B. Jordan and Octavia Spencer in "Fruitvale" (picked up by The Weinstein Company) to Isaiah Washington in "Blue Caprice" (still looking), Amanda Seyfried in "Lovelace" (Weinstein) to Sam Rockwell in "The Way Way Back" (bought by Fox Searchlight for a hefty price). I guess you could throw Keri Russell in the Sony Classics-acquired "Asutenland" in there, too. They could land in the season eventually, or not.
Oh, and speaking of Searchlight, they came here with "The East" and "Stoker" in tow. But I don't expect much out of either for awards. But who knows?
The craft scope of "Ain't Them Bodies Saints" means it ought to be considered a possible player (if it grabs distribution) in the cinematography, film editing and score fields, but performances from Ben Foster, Casey Affleck and Rooney Mara could also find traction with the right massaged campaign.
Elsewhere, A24 is putting together its 2013 slate and added to it with James Pondsolt's "The Spectacular Now." Performances from Shailene Woodley and Miles Teller could pop up but it seems screenplay consideration is most likely. And Sony Classics just acquired "Kill Your Darlings," also featuring a buzzed Ben Foster performance, along with another from Daniel Radcliffe.
Docs are always worth watching for, and a year after "Zero Dark Thirty," "Manhunt" might show up nostalgically. Alex Gibney's "We Steal Secrets" will absolutely be in the mix (and make for an interesting companion to Bill Condon's November release "The Fifth Estate"). "Twenty Feet from Stardom" was a big hit, too. "Running from Crazy" didn't make much of a splash but it's good enough to be considered.
The truth is, though, I don't think there is any "Beasts"-level breakout at this year's festival. "Fruitvale" is certainly affecting and in the running for the Grand Jury Prize, and "Ain't Them Bodies Saints" definitely has passionate champions. The most talked about film will likely be "The Way Way Back," but nothing has that residue of an instant story, I don't think.
We'll see how these films find their way from here. They all certainly got off to the right foot here in the Utah mountains, though. That's all you can ask for at this early stage.

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January 23, 2013 at 7:50AM EST Reply to CommentStoker could just be nominated for Best Actress (Mia Wasikowska), Best Actor (Matthew Goode), Best Supporting Actress (Nicole Kidman/Jacki Weaver), Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Score, Best Production Design, etc. Fox Searchlight is behind this, so I expect them to do some magic.
Kristopher Tapley Yeah, I don't know. The film's been pretty divisive here. But who knows?
January 23, 2013 at 12:39PM ESTGuy Lodge As much as I love the film, I would be astonished if this got any awards attention at all, especially with an early March release date. Have you seen it, Josh?
January 23, 2013 at 5:10PM ESTSilvana
January 23, 2013 at 9:57AM EST Reply to CommentNicole Kidman could be nominated for Stoker to Academy Award, and with Grace of Monaco if it realizes 2013
Blake
January 23, 2013 at 11:24AM EST Reply to Comment"The truth is, though, I don't think there is any 'Beasts'-level breakout at this year's festival."
Well, in all fairness, that's what almost everyone says every year at Sundance, and you were quite dismissive of Beasts' Oscar chances after seeing it. I remember when you and Anne were first discussing it on an Oscar Talk episode, when she brought up the possibility of Wallis getting an Oscar nomination, you laughed and said something like 'I don't think that movie's getting anything.'
I would not be at all surprised if "Before Midnight" or something like "Fruitvale" secures a best picture nomination at the end of the day.
Kristopher Tapley Well, you see that movie in a vacuum and try not to have the same reaction. In any case, point taken. We're too close to the fire here. We'll see how it goes.
January 23, 2013 at 12:40PM ESTforg
January 23, 2013 at 12:30PM EST Reply to CommentI hope Before Midnight will get a distributor, hopefully Lionsgate or Fox Searchlight
GL
January 23, 2013 at 1:11PM EST Reply to CommentFruitvale to me seemed liked the most buzzed film. Everyone is talking about the Weistein's bid and come on....It's freaking Harvey we are talking about here. The guy has like 2 BPs noms.
Laura Stewart
January 23, 2013 at 1:23PM EST Reply to CommentWould you say this year has had more of a variety of good to great films than last year? I only remember Beasts, Smashed, and The Sessions as the big buzzed about films... and Smashed fell off the radar pretty quickly. It's looking more and more like Winters Bone/Kids/Blue Valentine year where there were a variety of great performances in good to great films.
m1
January 23, 2013 at 10:29PM EST Reply to CommentDidn't Warner Bros. distribute Before Sunrise and Before Sunset? Wouldn't it make sense for them to do Before Midnight as well?
Kristopher Tapley Columbia did Sunrise. Warner Independent did Sunset.
January 24, 2013 at 3:56AM ESTbef
January 24, 2013 at 2:44PM EST Reply to CommentThe Weinstein Company has first refusal rites to Ain't Them Bodies Saints; I imagine they're negotiating(?).
bef oh, and this has probably no chance (Magnolia Pictures), but from what I've heard/seen: I would love some Explosions in the Sky love for Prince Avalanche. The score makes it more cinematic. So beautiful. But regardless of distribution, I know that branch is not into rewarding those in the music business (Trent Reznor win aside, and we really should've seen a Johnny Greenwood nomination this year).
January 24, 2013 at 2:47PM ESTGerard Sorme
January 27, 2013 at 11:11PM EST Reply to CommentAny word on "Big Sur" and if there is a distributor? With 'On The Road' rolling out in March, it would seem a great opportunity to ride what's sure to be a new wave of Kerouac Mania.