Tomorrow, the Oscar race takes a significant turn, as we move beyond the critics' awards -- though there are still plenty of those to come, of course -- and into the realm of industry opinion. The Screen Actors Guilds are the first taste we get of peer voting, and more often than not, the Academy echoes their selections with only a couple of exceptions -- not least because the bodies share a not-inconsiderable number of voters.

Last year, 14 of 20 SAG-nominated film performances went on to be compete for the Oscars, and that was a lower proportion than usual; three years ago, it was as many as 19.  When they disagree, it's usually SAG's picks that skew a little more conservative: on the whole, they're less likely than the Academy to spring for foreign-language performances or offbeat art films. (Among the names that missed out on SAG nods last year were Emmanuelle Riva, Quvenzhané Wallis, Joaquin Phoenix and Amy Adams for "The Master" and eventual Supporting Actor Oscar champ Christoph Waltz.) So a SAG omission is by no means insurmountable -- though when mainstream contenders miss out, it can be cause for concern.

Who's looking good in this year's SAG race, then? In each of the film categories, there are a handful of surefire nominees, but none is without some wiggle room -- including the group's top award, Best Ensemble. It's ostensibly their Best Picture equivalent, and sometimes blatantly awarded as such --remember "Slumdog Millionaire?" Still, it's still hard to imagine one of the Oscar frontrunners, "Gravity," scoring here, for obvious reasons.

With all that in mind, Kris, Greg and I have gathered our predictions in each category for your perusal. In no category do we entirely agree on the field, which hopefully bodes well for some surprises tomorrow. Take a look and tell us what you think...  

Best Ensemble

Greg's picks:
"American Hustle"
"August: Osage County"
"Lee Daniels' The Butler"
"Saving Mr. Banks"
"12 Years a Slave"

Guy's picks:
"American Hustle"
"August: Osage County"
"Her"
"Lee Daniels' The Butler"
"12 Years a Slave"

Kris' picks:
"American Hustle"
"August: Osage County"
"Lee Daniels' The Butler"
"Saving Mr. Banks"
"12 Years a Slave" 

All three of us agree on four of these. "12 Years a Slave" and "American Hustle" are surefire Best Picture contenders that are also dependent on large, star-filled casts, so those are no-brainers. "August: Osage County" and "Lee Daniels' The Butler" aren't quite such formidable contenders, but it's hard to imagine SAG ignoring such hefty, old-fashioned ensemble pieces in this category. (If they nominate the two-person cast of "Gravity," it really is time to drop the "Best Ensemble" pretence.) For the final spot, Kris and Greg agree on the Old Hollywood comforts of "Saving Mr. Banks"; I wonder if they might skew trendier (and reward a very fine ensemble) with "Her."

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