Roundup: Surviving the January release graveyard
Also: Tweets vs. critics' quotes, and can Jackman win?
"Gangster Squad"
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It's common knowledge that January is a cruel month for moviegoers -- assuming you can't just jet off to Sundance for the hell of it, once you've caught up with the late-releasing awards titles, there's little left to see but studio dregs like "Gangster Squad." Ty Burr considers the problem, digging up such noble January exceptions as "Dr. Strangelove" and "The Silence of the Lambs," and making this suggestion: "We should simply declare the first month of the year a new-release-free zone. As a preliminary step toward regaining our trust, studios would have to rerelease their most underrated entertainments from the previous year for a second chance: 2012’s sly meta-shrieker 'The Cabin in the Woods,' say, or the found-footage superhero movie 'Chronicle.'" [New York Times]
Jenelle Riley asks: Can Hugh Jackman beat Daniel Day-Lewis to the Oscar. (No, but we need something to talk about for five weeks.) [Backstage]
John Patterson loves Day-Lewis's Abe Lincoln, but believes he's first among equals when it comes to actors playing the beloved president. [The Guardian]
Robbie Collin is horrified by studios using fan tweets instead of critics' quotes on film posters. [The Telegraph]
Following debatable categorizations in this year's Oscar list, Joe Reid lists 14 supporting Oscar nominees who were actually leads. [Film.com]
Wendy Mitchell gets started on the conversation of which Sundance hits this year could be in the Oscar race in a year's time. [Screen Daily]
For the hardcore techies among you: the Cinema Audio Society reveals its technical achievement nominees for production and post-production. [Variety]
Glenn Whipp predicts "Argo" for Best Picture, as a growing number of pundits seems to be doing. [LA Times]
A week old, this, but I missed it first time round and I love it: "Holy Motors" director Leos Carax on accepting a Best Foreign Language Film award. [The Vote]
And finally Michael Winner -- director of "Death Wish" films, but a celebrity for other reasons in the UK -- has passed away at the age of 77. [BBC News]
2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupJonnybon
January 21, 2013 at 11:35AM EST Reply to CommentI can't believe anyone is seriously asking if Jackman can win. I can't think of ANY year when that performance would have won. He's one of the main problems with the film.
CaptainCanada Jackman's in the #2 spot this year, in most estimations I've seen. In this case, though, #2 is really far behind DDL. I could see Jackman winning in other circumstances, since he's a likeable actor and his work in the film has been generally acclaimed.
January 21, 2013 at 1:58PM ESTJonnybon The only nominee who might possibly be behind Jackman is Denzel
January 21, 2013 at 2:05PM ESTLaHaine All of these 5 leading men could feasibly win in another year.
January 21, 2013 at 2:15PM ESTJonnybon Can you give an example of a year this century when you think Jackman or Denzel might have won for these performances?
January 21, 2013 at 2:24PM ESTCaptainCanada Last year springs to mind, for starters (less so in Washington's case, since he's going for a third Oscar).
January 21, 2013 at 3:08PM ESTI don't see on what basis you've concluded Jackman couldn't win, since the reviews of his performance have been very strong on the whole, and he won the Golden Globe, which would be a campaign boost if DDL wasn't such a sure thing; in addition to being a popular, amiable actor. And the movie, while definitely having virulent detractors, has very passionate fans as well.
LaHaine Denzel could have definitely won for 'Flight' back in 2001 over his work in Training Day. Hugh Jackman is a hard working actor, who gives a very good performance as a notable literary character in an oscar friendly movie... and he also charms the media (Dujardin comes to mind right there). Pick a year, he would be a threat (even if it's a minor threat like now)... but If you want a year I could see it happening in 2008 over Sean Penn.
January 21, 2013 at 3:18PM ESTCaptainCanada I think Prop 8's passage probably sealed Penn's victory in 2008.
January 21, 2013 at 3:30PM ESTJonnybon Knew it was a bad idea asking that question. I could hardly disagree more but I'll leave it at that.
January 21, 2013 at 3:32PM ESTNicolas Mancuso Well, that's your opinion, and that fine. But, yeah, my opinion is that Jackman is second only to Phoenix in terms of "most deserving" in that category this year.
January 21, 2013 at 11:09PM ESTSomeone
January 21, 2013 at 12:16PM EST Reply to CommentWell, I haven't seen "Lincoln" nor "Les Miserables" so far but I have my doubts if anyone can be sure bet if winning Academy Award for the third time is considered. And winning Academy Award for the third time for the LEADING performance, for that matter. Only Katharine Hepburn managed this feat and also not very easily - her third win was a tie with Barbra Streisand (yeah, I know that she won 4th time later but this is not the same :P ). So I wouldn't be suprised if Cooper or Jackman won with him (Phoenix wasn't nominated for SAG and Washington also have two Oscars - though one of them is for the supporting role).
Someone *Washington HAS two Oscars, obviously :)
January 21, 2013 at 12:17PM ESTJoe7827
January 21, 2013 at 3:04PM EST Reply to CommentThanks, Guy. These are some interesting articles.
As good as he is, DDL is already a two-time winner (as is Washington). Of the remaining three, I think that Jackman has what it takes to win. Of course, DDL is still the frontrunner; but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Jackman won.
DylanS I agree, I think there might be trepidations about giving Day-Lewis his 3rd Best Actor prize, and I definitely think Jackman has solidified himself as the man who could upset. It would piss people off, but that's sort of the Academy's style.
January 21, 2013 at 4:23PM ESTEdwin I disagree. I think it would VERY surprising if Jackman pulled off an upset. Firstly, "Les Miz" itself would have to start regaining a lot of the buzz that it's lost over the past month. Maybe the actors like the movie, but since it was snubbed for Director, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, and Cinematography, I'm going to assume that it doesn't have a passionate following throughout every branch of the Academy, which is what counts for actually winning an Oscar. So really, the only huge shock upset I could see would be in the unlikely scenario that the Academy decides to give Best Picture to "Silver Linings Playbook" and just votes for it down the ballot, giving Bradley Cooper the win.
January 21, 2013 at 5:10PM ESTBut again, it's not going to happen. Daniel Day-Lewis is winning this award, and I think any talk of an upset is just done as an attempt to keep the race interesting. Best Actress and especially Best Supporting Actor are both very tight races right now though, so that's where the speculation should be going.
Joe7827 Were those really big snubs? Maybe Director, but it was never going to get Adapted. And I would disagree that you need passion throughout every branch; "Crash" and "Chicago" proved that the actors are plenty enough. I don't think "Les Miserables" will win either; but that has nothing to do with Jackman.
January 21, 2013 at 5:26PM ESTThe Dude Crash won editing and screenplay, and had a director nom as well. Chicago won a bunch of techs.
January 21, 2013 at 8:39PM ESTSo, not really.
Edwin My main point is that Jackman's praise seems to be much more tied to the praise of his film overall than the praise for Day-Lewis. In other words, people who like "Les Miz" like Jackman's performance, while people who don't like "Les Miz" are not likely to vote for Jackman. On the other hand, there are plenty of people (myself included) who aren't that crazy about "Lincoln" on the whole but still think Daniel Day-Lewis was great in it. So my view is that Jackman can only win if there's a huge "Les Miz" surge coming up, because I don't see him getting a lot of votes from people who aren't thrilled by "Les Miserables" as a whole. I think Bradley Cooper is in a similar situation, except I think "Silver Linings Playbook" will get further in the Best Picture race, hence why I think he's a more likely spoiler than Jackman. But again, it's pretty trivial, because Daniel Day-Lewis has at least a 90% chance of winning.
January 22, 2013 at 12:58AM ESTJoe7827 I don't think that Jackman or his film will win either, but I just disagree with the general statement that passionate following is needed in every branch to win Best Picture. I understand that "Crash" and "Chicago" had support from a few other branches (as does "Les Miserables"). But I believe that the overwhelming majority of their votes came from actors. Actors alone can carry a film to a win, if that film dominates that branch. Of course I don't think this applies for "Les Miserables", because there's so many other acting-friendly nominees. But as a general rule, yes really, I think that some films have won because of the actors.
January 22, 2013 at 12:55PM ESTEdwin
January 21, 2013 at 5:03PM EST Reply to CommentWho would win if Daniel Day-Lewis were out of the picture is an entirely different matter than who will be the runner-up this year, and I'd say that Jackman might have won if "Lincoln" had been delayed until next year. However, since that's obviously just a silly hypothetical scenario, I don't think Jackman will even be the runner-up this year (not that we'll ever know). In fact, I'd say Joaquin Phoenix would probably be the runner-up, albeit a very distant one. Like I said, being the runner-up is different from being the alternate winner, and since DDL is the overwhelming favorite across the board, you have to think about which of the other nominees has the most passionate fan base. Even if Phoenix's following is relatively small, I'm willing to bet that a lot of them are nonetheless passionate enough to vote for him over DDL. That's why I think that if we could see the complete results, Phoenix would be in a distant second this year once the votes are all in.
Joe7827 Great point. I thought DDL was great and didn't like The Master, and I would still vote for Phoenix because he was just that good.
January 21, 2013 at 5:14PM ESTMan, all of this Best Actor talk is making me really wish that John Hawkes was in.
Hans
January 21, 2013 at 5:11PM EST Reply to CommentThat was a great category fraud article. HUGE kudos for not just the Beasts team but the Academy as well for pushing through and recognizing Quvenzhane Wallis's LEADING performance.
/3rt
January 22, 2013 at 2:40AM EST Reply to CommentA 3rd Oscar for Washington is about the inscription. Since 1 of his statuettes has Supporting between Best and Actor. Streep's 3rd was also about the inscription.
Vargha
January 24, 2013 at 2:09AM EST Reply to CommentGuy, is it possible for you to finally reveal your review and thoughts on 'Lincoln'? If I am correct, the film is finally getting released in UK this week. So I personally look forward to seeing your review about the film.
Thanks