Roundup: Audiences still eager for 'Argo'

Also: 'Mea Maxima Culpa' to play in Italy, and Sasha Stone's Oscar dirty dozen

By Guy LodgeMonday, Oct 22, 2012 9:30 AM

John Goodman, Alan Arkin and Ben Affleck in "Argo."

Credit: Warner Bros. Pictures

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"Paranormal Activity 4" may have topped the box office this weekend, but the story of the chart remains "Argo" -- which, by dipping just 15% to take $16.6 million, posted the strongest ever hold for a live-action film on a non-holiday weekend. Warner Bros. are said to be confident the film will reach at least $90 million domestically, which is a pretty extraordinary projection these days for a film about grown-ups in which nobody wears a cape. All of which underlines the immediate reaction I had upon finally seeing the film for myself last week: combining that strong populist appeal with old-fashioned craftsmanship, rousing political history and Hollywood insider lore, it's unequivocally the one to beat for Best Picture. [Variety]

Speaking of "Argo," Glenn Dunks rightly celebrates an aspect of the film that hasn't been getting much attention: Jacqueline West's spot-on period costumes. Could she get a surprise nod à la "Milk?" [Stale Popcorn]

Big news for Alex Gibney and his documentary "Mea Maxima Culpa": his film has unexpectedly found theatrical distribution in Catholic strongholds Italy and Ireland. [Screen Daily]

Sasha Stone gathers a panel of guest pundits -- including yours truly -- to hash out some early-season questions in her first Oscar Roundtable of the year. [Awards Daily]

Marion Cotillard talks about her "crazy year" that has included "Rust and Bone," "The Dark Knight Rises" and learning Polish for James Gray's "Nightingale." Oh, and having a baby somewhere in between. [Wall Street Journal]

Peter Labuza and Matt Zoller Seitz continue their entertaining series of Tarantino-themed video essays, this time putting "Pulp Fiction" under scrutiny. [Press Play]

Neal Gabler discusses the perception of value in Hollywood. Interesting piece, though I'm unsure why Martin Scorsese -- three of whose last four films topped $100 million -- is described as someone not favored by audiences. [LA Times]

"The Sessions" writer-director Ben Lewin talks about the everyday nature of the explicit, and why he could hardly help making a feelgood film. [The Film Experience]

Following the festival success of Israeli Oscar hopeful "Fill the Void," Debra Karim looks at the small but growing band of female filmmakers in the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community. [New York Times]

Tom Hanks swears on national TV. Big deal. I'm more offended by the media's continued insistence on using the idiotic term "f-bomb." [CNN]

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Guy Lodge
Critic

Guy Lodge is a South African-born critic and sometime screenwriter. In addition to his work at In Contention, he is a freelance contributor to Variety, Time Out, Empire and The Guardian. He lives well beyond his means in London.

RichardZ

Argo is just a pleasant movie to watch without being too "Oscar". Its exposition about the brief history of Iran and USA was succinct and very informative (great refresher). I've been watching a lot of 70s political/thrillers films lately (Costas Gravas' Z, Missing (80s), 3 Days of Condor..., etc.). Argo has truly captured the essence of those films.

October 22, 2012 at 10:15AM EST Reply to Comment
Liz

I'm surprised that Neal Gabler uses the $100 million mark in his article without noting how it's been devauled by skyrocketing tentpole budgets. After all, if "Argo" tops out at $100 million, there will be hearty congratulations all around. If "The Avengers" had topped out at $100 million, it would have been an enormous failure resulting in numerous pink slips.

This is why Hollywood needs to start making more mainstream mid-budget movies like "Argo" that can make their money through strong word of mouth and a long run at the box office, rather than living or dying on their first weekend out, as tentpoles tend to do.
October 22, 2012 at 10:51AM EST Reply to Comment
- Guy Lodge Word.
  October 22, 2012 at 11:49AM EST
- GlennAU And "Flight", yes?
  October 23, 2012 at 2:36AM EST
- Liz Yes, that's a good example too. And I think "Looper" would fall into this category as well.
  October 23, 2012 at 8:42AM EST
Ladesh

"Argo"... posted the strongest ever hold for a live-action film on a non-holiday weekend."
(Read BOM more carefully - what they said was a generalization) Not true. Santa Clause 3 had a smaller percentage drop and it's second weekend did not fall on a holiday. I think the same is true for the first National Treasure movie as well. Still, quite an achievement and we'd need to see the actuals for the full story. I know that both of the films I mentioned may as well have been animated but that’s not the point (though it may just imply something about how the movie plays). The field would grow even more if one was to consider Holiday to Holiday weekends like the ones at the end of December.
"the film will reach at least $90 million domestically, which is a pretty extraordinary projection these days for a film about grown-ups in which nobody wears a cape… All of which underlines the immediate reaction I had upon finally seeing the film… it's unequivocally the one to beat for Best Picture."
Guy, you are blinded by your own cynicism which is the reason why you are not quite a great analyst or Oscar predictor. (And you are usually one likely to avoid using words like “unequivocally”.) That is too say you choose to give B.O. too much weight here because it's a movie you want to see succeed (dare I say it, at the expense of other films). I've been reading your columns for years and this issue of bias comes up again and again. Tapley, on the other hand, appears to be much more grounded which is why he does better with his predictions.
The fact of the matter is that every year adult non-superhero films make it past $100 million and that it is not quite as notable as you make it sound to be, even for a popular hit. Even "The Town", which is likely to be outgrossed by "Argo" made it past $90 million. So did “Juno” or “Black Swan”. Or “True Grit”. Or “Catch Me If You Can”.
"though I'm unsure why Martin Scorsese -- three of whose last four films topped $100 million -- is described as someone not favored by audiences."
That is because you are twisting the meaning of the article just to make a point... poorly. This is why you come off as an amateur when it comes to real analysis. You allow your judgment to be clouded when you are smarter than that. First of all, the article isn't so much about popular appeal as it is about valuation. And there is a major difference between the two. And as far as valuation goes (and the gap between Awards and popular appeal goes), they have a point. What’s more they make an unambiguous one.
Great job restricting your comment to just last 4 films (a telling thing in itself, that – because it points to a desire to manipulate). Still, even if one was to go that route, the combined cost of those films would exceed $450 million. Sure, these are the highest grossing films of Scorsese’s career, but they also the most expensive ones he has made. And only half probably broke even and made a profit.
I am not a fan of this either, mind you, nor am I questioning Scorsese’s ability to bring droves of audiences to theaters with a right combination of factors. It’s just that when one considers his profitability vs awards attention, there does appear to be a pretty big gap. In fact, one may even argue that bigger budgets did more to attract the attention of the Academy and Golden Globes (seriously talking about disproportionate amount of attention to this particulars point in his career!) to his films then that of audiences. Which may explain why he has stuck to making big budget films.

October 22, 2012 at 12:31PM EST Reply to Comment
- LOL Haters be hating! Amirite??!!
  October 22, 2012 at 2:57PM EST
- Guy Lodge "Tapley, on the other hand, appears to be much more grounded which is why he does better with his predictions."
  
  Well, yeah. Which is why he's the editor of awards site and I'm not. I make no claims to be a great predictor, and it's not a discipline I particularly value. But I appreciate the lengthy feedback.
  October 22, 2012 at 5:23PM EST
- GlennAU and speaking of making a point poorly...
  October 23, 2012 at 2:39AM EST
Jonnybon

I know it's unseen, but I'd be very surprised if Les Mis didn't prevail to become the clear frontrunner.
October 22, 2012 at 12:56PM EST Reply to Comment
- GlennAU I'd hazard a guess and say the studio is more than willing to let Argo remain in the driver's seat for the season hoping it trips up and peters out come Oscar night.
  October 23, 2012 at 2:40AM EST