Predicting the Screen Actors' Guild film nominees

Who do you expect to see nominated tomorrow?

<p>Could Linda Cardellini be a surprise SAG nominee for &quot;Return?&quot;</p>

Could Linda Cardellini be a surprise SAG nominee for "Return?"

Credit: Focus World

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A couple of you have asked for a space in which you can toss around your predictions for tomorrow's Screen Actors' Guild Award nominations, and we are nothing if not obliging. I've listed my own best guesses after the jump to get the ball rolling.

I'm not going to waste too much time analyzing the possibilities. I expect "Lincoln" and "Silver Linings Playbook" to come out on top numbers-wise, while this will be an interesting place to see where seemingly on-the-bubble contenders like Bradley Cooper or Matthew McConaughey currently stand in the race.

Though they often lean slightly more conservative (and American) in their choices than the Academy, SAG is capable of surprising us: last year's Best Actor nod for Demian Bichir caught pretty much everyone off guard, and was duly repeated on Oscar nomination morning.

If you're looking to call this year's Bichir-style wild card, you'd be best off doing it in the Best Actress category: with "Beasts of the Southern Wild" ineligible, and French contenders Emmanuelle Riva and Marion Cotillard by no means slam-dunks with this crowd, there's a lot of room for maneuver here. I'm throwing caution to the wind and guessing that Linda Cardellini's self-funded campaign for her superb work in the microbudget indie "Return," which involved sending screeners to all SAG voters, will pay off here, as it did in the Indie Spirit nominations. 

Who are you expecting -- or hoping -- to show up in tomorrow's announcement? Have at it. 

Best Ensemble
"Argo"
"Les Misérables"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"

Best Actress
Linda Cardellini, "Return"
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock"
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, "Argo"
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
Matthew McConaughey, "Magic Mike"

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "The Master"
Ann Dowd, "Compliance"
Sally Field, "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"

Best Stunt Ensemble
"The Avengers"
"The Dark Knight Rises"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"

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Guy Lodge
Critic
Guy Lodge is a South African-born critic and sometime screenwriter. In addition to his work at In Contention, he is a freelance contributor to Variety, Time Out, Empire and The Guardian. He lives well beyond his means in London.

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  • Default-avatar

    JLPatt

    Replace "Zero Dark Thiry" in Ensemble with "Moonrise Kingdom."

    I also sense Rachel Weisz may end up with a nomination.

    Fingers crossed for Ezra Miller.

    December 12, 2012 at 12:37AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Hal_9000_talkback_profile

      DylanS I agree with the "Zero Dark" "Moonrise" swap, glad to see somebody else is with me there.

      December 12, 2012 at 12:44AM EST
    • Default-avatar

      Liz I also am expecting Zero Dark Thirty to fall out, but I wouldn't be surprised if the beneficiary was Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. That seems exactly like the sort of movie SAG would embrace.

      December 12, 2012 at 1:06AM EST
    • Default-avatar

      GlennAU Why would ZD30 not be nominated? It's got a tonne of recognisable faces (even if they won't all get the nomination) and the film is incredibly well liked. Gosh, Slumdog won here! :/

      December 12, 2012 at 1:53AM EST
    • Hal_9000_talkback_profile

      DylanS There's rarely (if ever) perfect overlap between BP and Best Ensemble for SAG. I think it could totally happen here, as everything you said is true, but I think if there's one fall out, it'z "Zero Dark", because it's being talked about more for Chastain than for its ensemble.

      December 12, 2012 at 8:54AM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Gautam

    Here goes mine:

    Best Ensemble

    "Argo"
    "Les Misérables"
    "Lincoln"
    "Silver Linings Playbook"
    "Zero Dark Thirty"

    Best Actor

    Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
    Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
    Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"
    Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"
    Denzel Washington, "Flight"

    Best Actress

    Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
    Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
    Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
    Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock"
    Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"

    Best Supporting Actor

    Alan Arkin, "Argo"
    Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
    Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
    Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
    Leonardo Di Caprio, "Django Unchained"

    Best Supporting Actress

    Amy Adams, "The Master"
    Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
    Sally Field, "Lincoln"
    Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
    Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"

    December 12, 2012 at 12:41AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Hal_9000_talkback_profile

    DylanS

    Best Ensemble-
    “Lincoln”
    “Les Miserables”
    “Argo”
    “The Silver Linings Playbook”
    “Moonrise Kingdom”

    Best Actor-
    Hugh Jackman “Les Miserables”
    Daniel Day Lewis “Lincoln”
    Joaquin Phoenix “The Master”
    John Hawkes “The Sessions”
    Bradley Cooper “The Silver Linings Playbook”

    Best Actress-
    Emmanuelle Riva “Amour”
    Rachel Weisz “The Deep Blue Sea”
    Jennifer Lawrence “The Silver Linings Playbook”
    Helen Mirren “Hitchcock”
    Jessica Chastain “Zero Dark Thirty”

    Best Supporting Actor-
    Alan Arkin “Argo”
    Leonardo DiCaprio “Django Unchained”
    Tommy Lee Jones “Lincoln”
    Phillip Seymour Hoffman “The Master”
    Robert De Niro “The Silver Linings Playbook”

    Best Supporting Actress-
    Maggie Smith “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
    Anne Hathaway “Les Miserables”
    Sally Field “Lincoln”
    Amy Adams “The Master”
    Helen Hunt “The Sessions”

    December 12, 2012 at 12:50AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Tabb

    Although I fully expect LINCOLN to be nominated in the "Performance by a Cast" category - and it would be at the top of my own list - I'm dismayed, as usual, with the SAG billing rules that will limit the "cast" in this case to 7 people: Day-Lewis, Field, Gordon-Levitt, Holbrook, Jones, Spader and Strathairn. The contributions to the whole of others like Gloria Reuben, Lee Pace, Peter McRobbie, John Hawkes, Tim Blake Nelson, Jared Harris, Michael Stuhlbarg, S. Epatha Merkerson, the terrific Gulliver McGrath, and numerous others can neither be acknowledged in the nomination nor, in a sense, considered in the voting. And this from a guild run by and for actors. Maybe those rules don't hold anymore, but I suspect they do.

    December 12, 2012 at 12:52AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      Hans Is this a recent rule change? I remember Slumdog, Inglourious Basterds, and The Help seemingly nominating everyone with a speaking role. What I never understand is when a star's cameo gets billed for a nomination while someone else with a equally or more substantial role who may not be a big name isn't.

      Recent examples:
      Adrien Brody and not Allison Pill in Midnight in Paris
      Matt Lucas and not Rebel Wilson in Bridesmaids
      Alfred Molina and not Cara Seymour in An Education

      December 12, 2012 at 5:19AM EST
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      Paul Outlaw I believe these old, fucked-up, stupid, unfair, insulting rules are still in effect.

      December 12, 2012 at 6:23AM EST
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    ll

    I'm hoping "Perks" gets in there somewhere - at least Ezra Miller.

    December 12, 2012 at 12:57AM EST Reply to Comment
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    sdp

    Jack Black for Bernie

    December 12, 2012 at 1:11AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      Chris138 If there was a surprise in that category I could see that being the one. He's certainly the best aspect of that film.

      December 12, 2012 at 1:39AM EST
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    steve

    Liam Neeson for The Grey

    December 12, 2012 at 1:35AM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      Chris138 Word.

      December 12, 2012 at 1:38AM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Chris138

    If McConaughey gets a SAG nod tomorrow then I'll be convinced of his likelihood for an Oscar nomination. Otherwise I fear he will end up getting the same treatment that Albert Brooks did last year for Drive.

    December 12, 2012 at 1:37AM EST Reply to Comment
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    AmericanRequiem

    rooting for a well deserved nom for the ensemble of moonrise

    December 12, 2012 at 1:38AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Me.

    I'm taking some risks (like leaving Arkin out)... Best Actress will be interesting.

    Best Ensemble

    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Lincoln
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Zero Dark Thirty

    Best Actor

    Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
    Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
    John Hawkes - The Sessions
    Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
    Joaquin Phoenix - The Master

    Best Actress

    Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
    Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
    Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
    Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
    Naomi Watts - The Impossible

    Best Supporting Actor

    Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
    Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
    Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
    Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
    Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike

    Best Supporting Actress

    Amy Adams - The Master
    Ann Dowd - Compliance
    Sally Field - Lincoln
    Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
    Helen Hunt - The Sessions

    December 12, 2012 at 2:10AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Pic_talkback_profile

    forg

    Best Ensemble

    Argo
    Les Miserables
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Lincoln
    Moonrise Kingdom

    Best Actor

    Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
    Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
    John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
    Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"
    Denzel Washington, "Flight"

    Best Actress

    Linda Cardellini, "Return"
    Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty
    Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
    Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"
    Meryl Streep, "Hope Springs"



    Best Supporting Actor
    Alan Arkin, "Argo"
    Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
    Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
    Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
    Matthew McConaughey, "Magic Mike"



    Best Supporting Actress
    Amy Adams, "The Master"
    Judi Dench, "Skyfall"
    Sally Field, "Lincoln"
    Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
    Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"



    Stunt Ensemble

    The Avengers
    The Dark Knight Rises
    Skyfall


    December 12, 2012 at 2:30AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Paul Outlaw

    Call me crazy, but I think The Sessions, The Dark Knight Rises, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Master and Django Unchained are more likely Best Cast nominees than Zero Dark Thirty, solely based on the number of West Coast guild screenings.

    And I'd be thrilled if SAG didn't swallow the shiniest bait and instead nominated Cloud Atlas, The Dark Knight Rises, Lincoln, The Sessions and Zero Dark Thirty in this category. But it'll never happen.

    December 12, 2012 at 3:51AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Daniel Kenealy

    My predictions:

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST
    Argo
    Les Misérables
    Lincoln
    Moonrise Kingdom
    Silver Linings Playbook

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
    Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
    John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
    Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"
    Denzel Washington, "Flight"

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
    Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
    Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"
    Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"
    Rachel Weisz, "The Deep Blue Sea"

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Alan Arkin, "Argo"
    Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
    Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
    Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
    Matthew McConaughey, "Magic Mike"

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Amy Adams, "The Master"
    Sally Field, "Lincoln"
    Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
    Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"
    Kelly Reilly, "Flight"

    OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE
    "The Avengers"
    "The Dark Knight Rises"
    "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"

    December 12, 2012 at 5:34AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Dsc00002_talkback_profile

    loyal_mehnert

    Django, with all its swagger and recognizable faces, may show up in Ensemble.

    December 12, 2012 at 7:14AM EST Reply to Comment
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    Joe7827

    ENSEMBLE
    Argo; The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel; Django Unchained; Les Miserables; The Master

    ACTOR
    Daniel Day Lewis; Hugh Jackman; Joaquin Phoenix; John Hawkes; Richard Gere

    ACTRESS
    Jessica Chastain; Jennifer Lawrence; Rachel Weisz; Emmanuelle Riva; Naomi Watts

    SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Philip Seymour Hoffman; Alan Arkin; Tommy Lee Jones; Christoph Waltz; Matthew McConaughey

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Anne Hathaway; Sally Field; Amy Adams; Helen Hunt; Ann Dowd

    December 12, 2012 at 8:41AM EST Reply to Comment
2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
UPDATED: FEB 25, 2013

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