Predicting the Screen Actors' Guild film nominees
Who do you expect to see nominated tomorrow?
Could Linda Cardellini be a surprise SAG nominee for "Return?"
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A couple of you have asked for a space in which you can toss around your predictions for tomorrow's Screen Actors' Guild Award nominations, and we are nothing if not obliging. I've listed my own best guesses after the jump to get the ball rolling.
I'm not going to waste too much time analyzing the possibilities. I expect "Lincoln" and "Silver Linings Playbook" to come out on top numbers-wise, while this will be an interesting place to see where seemingly on-the-bubble contenders like Bradley Cooper or Matthew McConaughey currently stand in the race.
Though they often lean slightly more conservative (and American) in their choices than the Academy, SAG is capable of surprising us: last year's Best Actor nod for Demian Bichir caught pretty much everyone off guard, and was duly repeated on Oscar nomination morning.
If you're looking to call this year's Bichir-style wild card, you'd be best off doing it in the Best Actress category: with "Beasts of the Southern Wild" ineligible, and French contenders Emmanuelle Riva and Marion Cotillard by no means slam-dunks with this crowd, there's a lot of room for maneuver here. I'm throwing caution to the wind and guessing that Linda Cardellini's self-funded campaign for her superb work in the microbudget indie "Return," which involved sending screeners to all SAG voters, will pay off here, as it did in the Indie Spirit nominations.
Who are you expecting -- or hoping -- to show up in tomorrow's announcement? Have at it.
Best Ensemble
"Argo"
"Les Misérables"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"
Best Actress
Linda Cardellini, "Return"
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock"
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, "Argo"
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
Matthew McConaughey, "Magic Mike"
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "The Master"
Ann Dowd, "Compliance"
Sally Field, "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"
Best Stunt Ensemble
"The Avengers"
"The Dark Knight Rises"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
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December 12, 2012 at 12:37AM EST Reply to CommentReplace "Zero Dark Thiry" in Ensemble with "Moonrise Kingdom."
I also sense Rachel Weisz may end up with a nomination.
Fingers crossed for Ezra Miller.
DylanS I agree with the "Zero Dark" "Moonrise" swap, glad to see somebody else is with me there.
December 12, 2012 at 12:44AM ESTLiz I also am expecting Zero Dark Thirty to fall out, but I wouldn't be surprised if the beneficiary was Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. That seems exactly like the sort of movie SAG would embrace.
December 12, 2012 at 1:06AM ESTGlennAU Why would ZD30 not be nominated? It's got a tonne of recognisable faces (even if they won't all get the nomination) and the film is incredibly well liked. Gosh, Slumdog won here! :/
December 12, 2012 at 1:53AM ESTDylanS There's rarely (if ever) perfect overlap between BP and Best Ensemble for SAG. I think it could totally happen here, as everything you said is true, but I think if there's one fall out, it'z "Zero Dark", because it's being talked about more for Chastain than for its ensemble.
December 12, 2012 at 8:54AM ESTGautam
December 12, 2012 at 12:41AM EST Reply to CommentHere goes mine:
Best Ensemble
"Argo"
"Les Misérables"
"Lincoln"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"
Best Actress
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock"
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, "Argo"
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
Leonardo Di Caprio, "Django Unchained"
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "The Master"
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Sally Field, "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"
DylanS
December 12, 2012 at 12:50AM EST Reply to CommentBest Ensemble-
“Lincoln”
“Les Miserables”
“Argo”
“The Silver Linings Playbook”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
Best Actor-
Hugh Jackman “Les Miserables”
Daniel Day Lewis “Lincoln”
Joaquin Phoenix “The Master”
John Hawkes “The Sessions”
Bradley Cooper “The Silver Linings Playbook”
Best Actress-
Emmanuelle Riva “Amour”
Rachel Weisz “The Deep Blue Sea”
Jennifer Lawrence “The Silver Linings Playbook”
Helen Mirren “Hitchcock”
Jessica Chastain “Zero Dark Thirty”
Best Supporting Actor-
Alan Arkin “Argo”
Leonardo DiCaprio “Django Unchained”
Tommy Lee Jones “Lincoln”
Phillip Seymour Hoffman “The Master”
Robert De Niro “The Silver Linings Playbook”
Best Supporting Actress-
Maggie Smith “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
Anne Hathaway “Les Miserables”
Sally Field “Lincoln”
Amy Adams “The Master”
Helen Hunt “The Sessions”
Tabb
December 12, 2012 at 12:52AM EST Reply to CommentAlthough I fully expect LINCOLN to be nominated in the "Performance by a Cast" category - and it would be at the top of my own list - I'm dismayed, as usual, with the SAG billing rules that will limit the "cast" in this case to 7 people: Day-Lewis, Field, Gordon-Levitt, Holbrook, Jones, Spader and Strathairn. The contributions to the whole of others like Gloria Reuben, Lee Pace, Peter McRobbie, John Hawkes, Tim Blake Nelson, Jared Harris, Michael Stuhlbarg, S. Epatha Merkerson, the terrific Gulliver McGrath, and numerous others can neither be acknowledged in the nomination nor, in a sense, considered in the voting. And this from a guild run by and for actors. Maybe those rules don't hold anymore, but I suspect they do.
Hans Is this a recent rule change? I remember Slumdog, Inglourious Basterds, and The Help seemingly nominating everyone with a speaking role. What I never understand is when a star's cameo gets billed for a nomination while someone else with a equally or more substantial role who may not be a big name isn't.
December 12, 2012 at 5:19AM ESTRecent examples:
Adrien Brody and not Allison Pill in Midnight in Paris
Matt Lucas and not Rebel Wilson in Bridesmaids
Alfred Molina and not Cara Seymour in An Education
Paul Outlaw I believe these old, fucked-up, stupid, unfair, insulting rules are still in effect.
December 12, 2012 at 6:23AM ESTll
December 12, 2012 at 12:57AM EST Reply to CommentI'm hoping "Perks" gets in there somewhere - at least Ezra Miller.
sdp
December 12, 2012 at 1:11AM EST Reply to CommentJack Black for Bernie
Chris138 If there was a surprise in that category I could see that being the one. He's certainly the best aspect of that film.
December 12, 2012 at 1:39AM ESTsteve
December 12, 2012 at 1:35AM EST Reply to CommentLiam Neeson for The Grey
Chris138 Word.
December 12, 2012 at 1:38AM ESTChris138
December 12, 2012 at 1:37AM EST Reply to CommentIf McConaughey gets a SAG nod tomorrow then I'll be convinced of his likelihood for an Oscar nomination. Otherwise I fear he will end up getting the same treatment that Albert Brooks did last year for Drive.
AmericanRequiem
December 12, 2012 at 1:38AM EST Reply to Commentrooting for a well deserved nom for the ensemble of moonrise
Me.
December 12, 2012 at 2:10AM EST Reply to CommentI'm taking some risks (like leaving Arkin out)... Best Actress will be interesting.
Best Ensemble
Argo
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Naomi Watts - The Impossible
Best Supporting Actor
Robert DeNiro - Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - The Master
Ann Dowd - Compliance
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
forg
December 12, 2012 at 2:30AM EST Reply to CommentBest Ensemble
Argo
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"
Best Actress
Linda Cardellini, "Return"
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"
Meryl Streep, "Hope Springs"
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, "Argo"
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
Matthew McConaughey, "Magic Mike"
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "The Master"
Judi Dench, "Skyfall"
Sally Field, "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"
Stunt Ensemble
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
Skyfall
Paul Outlaw
December 12, 2012 at 3:51AM EST Reply to CommentCall me crazy, but I think The Sessions, The Dark Knight Rises, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Master and Django Unchained are more likely Best Cast nominees than Zero Dark Thirty, solely based on the number of West Coast guild screenings.
And I'd be thrilled if SAG didn't swallow the shiniest bait and instead nominated Cloud Atlas, The Dark Knight Rises, Lincoln, The Sessions and Zero Dark Thirty in this category. But it'll never happen.
Daniel Kenealy
December 12, 2012 at 5:34AM EST Reply to CommentMy predictions:
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST
Argo
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"
Rachel Weisz, "The Deep Blue Sea"
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin, "Argo"
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
Matthew McConaughey, "Magic Mike"
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams, "The Master"
Sally Field, "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"
Kelly Reilly, "Flight"
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE
"The Avengers"
"The Dark Knight Rises"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
loyal_mehnert
December 12, 2012 at 7:14AM EST Reply to CommentDjango, with all its swagger and recognizable faces, may show up in Ensemble.
Joe7827
December 12, 2012 at 8:41AM EST Reply to CommentENSEMBLE
Argo; The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel; Django Unchained; Les Miserables; The Master
ACTOR
Daniel Day Lewis; Hugh Jackman; Joaquin Phoenix; John Hawkes; Richard Gere
ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain; Jennifer Lawrence; Rachel Weisz; Emmanuelle Riva; Naomi Watts
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman; Alan Arkin; Tommy Lee Jones; Christoph Waltz; Matthew McConaughey
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway; Sally Field; Amy Adams; Helen Hunt; Ann Dowd