Oscar Talk: Ep. 107 -- Final stabs in the dark
Last guesses with the 85th annual around the corner
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Welcome to Oscar Talk.
In case you're new to the site and/or the podcast, Oscar Talk is a weekly kudocast, your one-stop awards chat shop between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood. The podcast is weekly, every Friday throughout the season, charting the ups and downs of contenders along the way. Plenty of things change en route to Oscar's stage and we're here to address it all as it unfolds.
Well, it looks like there's just one more order of business to cover before the big show on Sunday: FINAL PREDICTIONS! Anne and I ended up differing in six categories. Who's gonna have bragging rights when we come back to close out the season on Monday? We'll see.
Have a listen to the new podcast below. If the file cuts off for you at any time, try the back-up download link at the bottom of this post. You to subscribe to Oscar Talk via iTunes here. And as always, if you have a question you'd like us to address on a future podcast, send it to OscarTalk@HitFix.com.
"Here I Come" courtesy of Stuart Park.
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2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupHoustonRufus
February 22, 2013 at 1:13PM EST Reply to CommentCan't wait to get home and listen!
DylanS
February 22, 2013 at 2:33PM EST Reply to Commentfavorite Best Picture winner of all time, probably "All About Eve", but looking through the list there's plenty I really like but few I'm very passionate about.
Conor
February 22, 2013 at 2:41PM EST Reply to CommentI laughed so hard at your spiel on Anne during the best actress thing about overthinking things... Also curious about your ZDT theories. Anyway good stuff
John Gilpatrick
February 22, 2013 at 2:43PM EST Reply to Comment"Thelma and Louise...and Kris." Laughed out loud.
John G.
February 22, 2013 at 2:55PM EST Reply to CommentThank you, thank you, thank you for covering the Oscar race the way you do and not the way Sasha Stone does.
Anne's choices for best Best Pictures sound similar to my own. I'm surprised that neither of you mentioned Casablanca, although I suppose that people often forget that it won Best Picture.
After listening to this, I think mine are ready:
Best Picture: Argo
Director: Ang Lee
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Supp. Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Supp. Actress: Anne Hathaway
Adapt. Screenplay: Argo
Orig. Screenplay: Amour
Cinematography: Life of Pi
Film Editing: Argo
Costume: Anna Karenina
Production Design: Les Miserables
Makeup: Les Miserables
Sound Editing: Life of Pi
Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Original Score: Life of Pi
Original Song: Skyfall
Foreign Film: Amour
Animated Feature: Brave
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man
Live Action Short: Curfew
Animated Short: Paperman
Documentary Short: Open Heart
KT
February 22, 2013 at 3:03PM EST Reply to CommentWhy can't you get into who you think was behind the Zero Dark Thirty smear campaigns?? Though nothing is 100% confirmed and I'm sure you don't want to be caught making accusations, the small crumbs are there to lead back to certain individuals. Of course, Harvey is one, backing Seal Team 6, the Hollywood Reporter pieces on Bigelow's reaction to seeing Harvey, even Bradley Cooper being worried about Zero Dark Thirty on his Gold Derby chat could play into this. Some have speculated Spielberg is another, with his strong ties to politicians and base in California (Feinstein), angling Lincoln as "for all time" to take away from Zero Dark Thirty's contemporary timeliness, criticizing accuracy and morality. I would've loved to hear your thoughts on this, and it's an absolute shame that such ruthless tactics haven't been exposed, especially when "screenings" (riiiight) are set up for senators to "see" the movie who then comment based on the information they are supplied.
Andrew W. Probably going to get bagged and tagged and shipped to a black site in the middle of the night for even suggesting this, but does anyone NOT think Affleck was behind his buddy Rep. Joe Courtney's takedown of Lincoln? The guy, and Time Warner, are HUNGRY this year.
February 22, 2013 at 4:29PM ESTRichardZ
February 22, 2013 at 4:30PM EST Reply to CommentRe: Ghostbusters. It's striking to watch the movie when Harold Ramis declares "Print is dead". It was so prescient.
Andrea
February 22, 2013 at 5:18PM EST Reply to CommentHow pathetic voters can get away with boasting they haven't or won't watch a film nominated for Picture, Director, Actress, and Screenplay.
The entire awards are meaningless if this is who decides them.
CaptainCanada
February 22, 2013 at 5:46PM EST Reply to CommentMy favourite BP winner would probably be "Amadeus".
Alex In Movieland
February 22, 2013 at 6:01PM EST Reply to CommentAnne is wrong. Walter Brennan won his 3 Oscars over 6-7 years... :)
Kristopher Tapley Well, lead Oscars I think is what we're talking about.
February 22, 2013 at 6:17PM ESTNina
February 22, 2013 at 6:02PM EST Reply to CommentSo basically, people in the film industry and those who cover it are so scared of Spielberg and the respect and clout he holds that you won't even discuss what you say is your own theory?
Cause I'm betting if it was Harvey behind the ZD30 desctruction we'd be hearing lots of jokes about it.
Or am I wrong Kris?
Kristopher Tapley Who said it was Spielberg? And who said it WASN'T Harvey?
February 22, 2013 at 6:18PM ESTFact is I'm not gonna air something like that out in public. No need to assign a BS reason as to why. :)
loyal_mehnert
February 22, 2013 at 6:13PM EST Reply to Comment"Lot of movies have gotten a lot of nominations and walked away with nothing."
I don't know Kris, it happens so infrequently that Lincoln winning just Best Actor with 12 nominations would be odd. Even Curious Case of Benjamin Button won 3.
Kristopher Tapley Lucky for Button it wasn't up against much stiff design competition. "Lincoln" is.
February 22, 2013 at 6:19PM ESTI think something like 12 films have received eight or more nominations and won zero Oscars. So "Lincoln" at least would have a leg up on them with its one.
Kristopher Tapley Also, of course, Button was nominated for and won makeup and visual effects. Lincoln isn't even nominated for those because it's really not that kind of film (though you could argue its missing a makeup nod was odd).
February 22, 2013 at 6:20PM ESTEvery film is different. And every year is different.
Guy Lodge And, most crucially, every category is different. You can be second in twelve categories and still win nothing, after all.
February 23, 2013 at 12:32PM ESTdaveylo
February 22, 2013 at 6:24PM EST Reply to CommentI agree with Kris and Anne about Brave. Wreck It Ralph would be a good win, too. But Brave is the film that will please more in the older Academy.
daveylo
February 22, 2013 at 6:28PM EST Reply to CommentI wouldn't go by BAFTA's choice for music. Their choices in the past does not often correspond with the Academy.
daveylo
February 22, 2013 at 6:33PM EST Reply to Comment5 nominations doesn't mean too much. Amelie got 4 nominations and didn't win Best Picture or anything else, which is sad.
JJ1 Anne didnt have much to say after Kris said that Skyfall wasnt loved so much as to have been nommed fpr BP.
February 22, 2013 at 7:15PM ESTdaveylo JJ1--I was thinking about Amour.
February 22, 2013 at 8:03PM ESTJJ1 Gotcha
February 22, 2013 at 8:05PM ESTKristopher Tapley Amour's five nominations, including four of the major categories, means a lot more than Amelie's four, no?
February 22, 2013 at 8:20PM ESTdaveylo Kris I guess you're right about Amour but Amelie was pretty popular. I guess nothing compares with the 10 nominations for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon though! And look what happened to Pan's Labyrinth.
February 22, 2013 at 8:33PM ESTdaveylo For Amelie above,it should have said Best Foreign Film, not Best Picture. Hope everyone knew what I meant :-)
February 22, 2013 at 8:35PM ESTJLPatt "Amélie" had 5 nominations.
February 23, 2013 at 12:42AM ESTGuy Lodge What JLPatt said.
February 23, 2013 at 12:36PM ESTAnd Dayeylo, Amour kind of compares with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, because they're both Best Picture nominees. As I keep saying, no film nominated for both Best Picture and Best Foreign Language Film has ever lost the latter award.
daveylo
February 22, 2013 at 6:39PM EST Reply to CommentI am thrilled that predictors have gravitated toward Ang Lee for director instead of Spielberg. I just hope this comes true.
JJ1
February 22, 2013 at 7:11PM EST Reply to CommentThank you so much Kris and Anne for these podcasts and the extensive coverage. I think its nothing short of incredible what you guys do.
On the podcast:
-I also feel lime Lincoln will win more than 1, thought im not sure where.
-the crossover for BAFTA is 300? I thought i had heard reports, in the past, of 600 or even 1000.
-when I do my silly little ballots, I often try to make sure that the many movies I like wins at least one category.
JJ1 Also, did I hear somewhere that all the acting nominees would be in the first row? I may be completely wrong/heard wrong.
February 22, 2013 at 7:12PM ESTKristopher Tapley Nah, doesn't really mean anything.
February 22, 2013 at 7:49PM ESTEvan
February 22, 2013 at 9:26PM EST Reply to CommentA few thoughts:
-I have a sound editor friend who worked on numerous big name directors' pictures who was raving about Life of Pi earlier in November, saying the sound work was extraordinary. I've been curious all year whether that was just one sound guy's opinion or perhaps an indication of more widespread sentiment in the branch. Sounds like the latter.
-Kris, your point about people voting "the straight ticket" could be seen as an argument for Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings, yes? I'd say far more people would vote the straight SLP ticket than the Amour ticket. (Though I agree, it's very up-in-the-air category.)
-I'm picking Mondays at Racine too. You and others have brought up Open Heart as a film that could potentially capture the Academy's sympathy and therefore vote a la Saving Face and Smile Pinki, but I'd say Mondays fits that bill too and is far, far more thorough than Open Heart. I don't think it's the developing world setting that has gotten voters riled up with previous winners; it's the emotion and care for individual characters. And to me, both in style and because it's focusing on fewer people, MaR beats Open Heart in that regard hands-down. (And this is from someone who went gaga over Saving Face last year.)
THanks for all that you guys do.
P.S. Gone with the Wind is my vote for not only the best Best Picture, but also the best film of all time. I was excited for a second when I thought, at Kris's mention of it, that Anne shared that opinion. Phooey.
Kristopher Tapley "...your point about people voting "the straight ticket" could be seen as an argument for Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings, yes?"
February 22, 2013 at 9:53PM ESTYes. Which I plainly said. The point I was making was that Anne's logic that people play those kings of pretzel games with their ballot is a bit, well, pretzel.
Evan Ah, sorry. I missed that. But I agree-- we see far too many sweeps for people to be intentionally spreading their vote around, at least en masse.
February 22, 2013 at 9:56PM ESTBen the problem with Anne's logic there is that even if you concede that some voters may love multiple films and want to spread the love in a way...its basically impossible for them to be doing it in such a coordinated way that it influences the results in a real way. I.e. some voters may want to give Lincoln a consolation prize in the techs, but some would give it Production Design, some Costume, some Editing, and at the end of the day it'd be so scattered that it wouldn't make much of a difference. I just find "it'll win production design because they'll want to give it something" such a weak argument.
February 24, 2013 at 12:50AM ESTLaHaine
February 22, 2013 at 9:31PM EST Reply to CommentHey Kris or Guy, can u tell me more about the shady campaign in the year with 'A Beautiful Mind'? I am curious
HoustonRufus
February 22, 2013 at 10:48PM EST Reply to CommentI'm excited and ready for the oscars but not ready for oscar talk to end. Great season, Kris and Anne.
ASGreen
February 23, 2013 at 12:15AM EST Reply to CommentStreep will win a 4th Oscar but not will be highly improbable that she will win 4 best actress Oscars. If Day-Lewis can win a third lead Oscar 5 years after winning his second lead Oscar, Streep would certainly win next year for August:Osage County, which if the film does the source material any justice, she will.
Guy Lodge Um, "certainly"? The Streep Brigade is striking early this year.
February 23, 2013 at 12:38PM ESTAaron McMahon
February 23, 2013 at 3:10AM EST Reply to CommentDue to the crazy awards season, I did my predictions backwards this year backwards picking the film's Oscar wins first (since I don't believe Argo can win Best Picture with one or two wins.
Life of Pi: 5 (Cinematography, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)
Argo: 3 (Picture, Editing, Adapted Screenplay)
Amour: 2 (Foreign, Original Screenplay)
Les Miserables: 2 (Supporting Actress, Makeup/Hair)
Linoln: 2 (Actor)
Silver Linings Playbook: 2 (Director, Actress)
then single winners:
Anna Karenina (Production Design)
Mirror Mirror (Costumes)
Skyfall (Song)
Michael
February 23, 2013 at 5:08AM EST Reply to CommentI'm curious Kris, the sound categories have been driving me to crazy predict and all season I have been following two pieces of logic I've heard you say in previous years. They normally always go to the same film and it's a respectable blockbuster, that is why until now I've been predicting Skyfall. However I'm now thinking of changing to Life of Pi for both. Am I wrong to stick to the 'rule' that they go to the same film? I'm just wondering what made you go back on that this year and why 'the respectable blockbuster' won't be the winner in those categories this year?
Kristopher Tapley That "rule" about going to the same film tends to be out of play when there's a big musical in the sound mixing category.
February 23, 2013 at 3:50PM ESTsakul
February 23, 2013 at 7:52AM EST Reply to CommentOh man, I would have LOVED to hear your theories on the Zero Dark Thirty snub / smear campaign.
Remember when two months ago, everybody thought it would win Best Picture? I would love to see that happen tomorrow night, but of course, it's never gonna happen. I am still baffled that Bigelow isn't nominated.
JJ1
February 23, 2013 at 12:14PM EST Reply to CommentI see 3 Best Picture noms going home potentially empty-handed:
ZD30
Django Unchained
Beasts of the Southern Wild