Oscar Talk: Ep. 106 -- BAFTA and Scripter recap, WGA preview and more shorts
Plus: How stellar is that slate of documentary feature nominees?
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Welcome to Oscar Talk.
In case you're new to the site and/or the podcast, Oscar Talk is a weekly kudocast, your one-stop awards chat shop between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood. The podcast is weekly, every Friday throughout the season, charting the ups and downs of contenders along the way. Plenty of things change en route to Oscar's stage and we're here to address it all as it unfolds.
Guess what won some more awards? Would you believe "Argo?" The film took top honors at the BAFTA Awards last weekend. We discuss the show's winners and potential Oscar impact, especially as it regards hopefuls like Quentin Tarantino and Emmanuelle Riva.
Another award "Argo" picked up was the USC Scripter prize. Is a WGA Award next? We preview the weekend's upcoming screenplay competition and forecast the screenplay Oscar races as well.
Last week we covered animated features and shorts. This week we dive in on documentaries. We mull over the feature and short subject competitions, two strong categories.
Speaking of shorts, the last category we need to cover finally gets its day: Best Live Action Short. Will emotion win out over production value?
And finally, reader questions. We address queries about our initial dismissal of Christoph Waltz's Oscar chances and how the Academy reacts to digital production design.
Have a listen to the new podcast below. If the file cuts off for you at any time, try the back-up download link at the bottom of this post. You to subscribe to Oscar Talk via iTunes here. And as always, if you have a question you'd like us to address on a future podcast, send it to OscarTalk@HitFix.com.
"Here I Come" courtesy of Stuart Park.
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2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupScottferguson
February 15, 2013 at 1:45PM EST Reply to CommentI appreciate your conscientiousness about pronouncing names right (Haneke). In that mode, it's not MYE-kul (as we say), but MICK - eh - el.
Also, it's VALTZ, not WALTZ.
Thanks for caring about this.
Paul Outlaw Actually, it's ME-shy-el.
February 15, 2013 at 3:31PM EST(the "shy" being an approximation of the consonant)
Adrian
February 15, 2013 at 2:58PM EST Reply to CommentSecrets & Lies is so good! You should see it. Ha! :)
Squasher88 Ditto. It's excellent.
February 15, 2013 at 3:47PM ESTIvan "Secrets and Lies"... It's a masterpiece, if you ask me. A must see!
February 15, 2013 at 4:38PM ESTSquasher88
February 15, 2013 at 3:07PM EST Reply to CommentKris' understanding of the Oscar race has been so brilliant this year. I love that he asked where this perception of Lincoln's frontrunner status came from. We really got carried away with its 12 nomination haul. It doesn't mean it was ever #1.
February 15, 2013 at 3:35PM ESTHistorically speaking, the more nominations you get, the more likely it is that you win Best Picture. And in the instances where the most nominated film didn't win, it almost always lost to the 2nd most nominated film - The Artist (10) over Hugo (11) , Slumdog (10) over Benjamin Button (13), Beautiful Mind (8) over Fellowship (13). For a film that's the 5th most nominated to win (without a BD nom no less) over the most nominated film is kinda statistically impossible (according to AMPAS).
So in the off chance something random happens next Sunday and Lincoln does win, except all the pundits to point to history, some more smugly than others.
Squasher88 Oscars aren't as scientific as that though and this year is very very unique. Just look at that DGA lineup! Only 2 of them are Oscar-nominated!!
February 15, 2013 at 3:52PM EST
February 15, 2013 at 3:57PM ESTJoe7827 I could've done without your imagery in the first sentence, Loyal. But you're right; all of this whole “nominations count doesn’t matter” talk is silly. It doesn’t matter when the difference is between 10 and 11, or 11 and 12, or even 10 and 13. But we’re talking here about the difference between 7 and 12. As you point out, four other films have more nominations than Argo, which has barely half the nominations of the leader!
February 15, 2013 at 4:00PM EST“But what other nominations could it have gotten?” Good question. Maybe Actor, maybe Cinematography, maybe Production Design. Longshots? Of course; but no more so than Benh Zeitlin or Jacki Weaver, or “Flight” for screenplay.
Don’t get me wrong; the general logic certainly points to “Argo” winning. But nomination count is certainly one thing against it, and in favor of "Lincoln".
February 15, 2013 at 4:08PM ESTKristopher Tapley I just gave an interview to the Toronto Star where I laid out this whole argument, but was careful to close with, "Now watch the damn think [Lincoln] win." Nothing is for sure this year.
February 15, 2013 at 4:30PM ESTKristopher Tapley *thing
February 15, 2013 at 4:50PM ESTJJ1 Im sorry, but Lincoln received amazing reviews, some of the best of the year. Its about one of the most important presidents in the history of America. It also has Spielberg, DDL, Field, TLJ, a huge and wonderful cast. Fantastic techs. Amazing box office. Great buzz from November thru the last few weeks. Enjoyed by every guild. Most nommed at BFCA, GG, BAFTA, and the Oscars. And to say that Benjamin Button had 12 noms, too ... That film also came across cooler with some negative buzz attached and only received reviews in the 70s on rottentomatoes and metacritic; unlike Lincoln's high 80s and low 90s.
February 15, 2013 at 6:30PM ESTSo for all those reasons, I do think that Lincoln had frontrunner status for most of this season, including - certainly - the morning of the The Oscar noms.
JJ1 Eww, that comes across snotty.
February 15, 2013 at 6:34PM ESTThat wasnt my intended tone.
My point is, I absolutely think Lincoln was the frontrunner for the reasons I laid out until the last several weeks.
Kristopher Tapley For, in my opinion, soft reasons.
February 15, 2013 at 8:52PM ESTJJ1 Okeydoke. You certainly have more insider info/feel than the rest of us. So I can trust your opinion that Lincoln never really felt frontrunnery.
February 15, 2013 at 10:17PM ESTRichardZ
February 15, 2013 at 4:15PM EST Reply to CommentLincoln is such a prestige film. It's important, it's 150 yr anniversary, it's Spielberg, Kushner, and DDL, it's everything on paper. Up on the screen, it's was a little flat. It might have been too smart.
Anna Karenina should get Production Design (ugh, let's just call it Art Direction). There was just so many different ideas and sets and how it flowed from one to another.
RichardZ
February 15, 2013 at 4:17PM EST Reply to CommentSecret and Lies is just amazing. I think it's Leigh's best movie of his style of moviemaking.
Ivan ""Secrets and Lies" or "Life Is Sweet" - never could decide which one I like better... but they are reaaaaaaally good!
February 15, 2013 at 4:46PM ESTB
February 15, 2013 at 5:02PM EST Reply to CommentJennifer didn't look shocked/angered to me when she lost the BAFTA, nor did she make a face. David did, for sure. I do think people are being unnecessarily snobbish to her in the Oscarologist World for no really good reason.
Kristopher Tapley Yeah it was mainly Russell. I didn't think Lawrence give much of a reaction (though she was oddly stone-faced compared to Mirren). In any case, I haven't been snobbish to her. I've made my feelings known on the performance but I've been on her side since "The Burning Plain."
February 15, 2013 at 5:41PM ESTHoustonRufus
February 15, 2013 at 6:09PM EST Reply to CommentGod bless Anne. I love how she thinks Lincoln will win the WGA because it's a consummate piece of writing written by a revered playwright.
Kristopher Tapley Was I making ANY sense there?
February 15, 2013 at 6:17PM ESTHoustonRufus Yes. It's clear what you're getting at. It's a hard thing sometimes to separate your opinion on a movie or a piece of work from the real dynamics happening in an awards race. I'm sure to many it seems obvious Kushner would win. I'd like to believe Kushner will win actually. But there is no evidence it will. I'm predicting Argo will win because the trajectory of the season so far points that direction.
February 15, 2013 at 6:23PM ESTPaulinJapan Until recently I thought that a Kushner win for screenplay was one of the locks of the night. My reasoning was that it was such a weighty, well written, wordy script that it was in a similar position to Sorkin's The Social Network screenplay. Sure, the movie itself could lose to the popular choice, but the Academy would recognize the better writing. It's looking now like it will be one of Argo's three wins on the night.
February 16, 2013 at 2:44AM ESTSLP shouldn't even be in the equation. I was shocked by its BAFTA win.
M.
February 15, 2013 at 6:33PM EST Reply to CommentWow, that was a shitty thing for Anne Thompson to say regarding Jennifer Lawrence. Lawrence DID NOT look horrified/angry at all. Look it up...the whole reaction shot is on YOUTUBE. Lawrence looks mildly disappointed at best which is understandable. Lawrence has been praised by Thompson for her performance since September...and now Thompson is supporting the "movement to deprive Lawrence of an Oscar"....accusing Lawrence of giving a reaction that she clearly did not give?. Thompson is a phoney.
Mark Well, I think you've gone a little overboard. That being said, I didn't see what was the difference between Lawrence and say, Chastain's reaction who also looked upset. Even Russell looked more shocked than outraged or disgusted, I mean I certainly didn't think Lawrence was losing after he won Screenplay. I think Russell's past makes him an easy target, though I suppose it's hard to give him the benefit of the doubt in that type of situation. I didn't like his reaction, but it was more funny than offensive. Some just like to blow things out of proportions.
February 15, 2013 at 6:50PM ESTM. Yes, perhaps I was a little harsh (with regards to the "phoney" remark and I apologize) but, c'mon....Anne Thompson's comment was unfair as well as untrue. I also agree with you regarding Chastain's reaction, what's the difference?..both looked mildly disappointed and that is understandable. It was wrong of Thompson to single Lawrence out when Chastain gave the same reaction. I think it's absurd for Thompson to assume that a look of mild disappointment somehow translates into a disrespect for the craft. I would think that being professional on set, not being difficult, proving yourself a hard worker and being truly great at what you do despite very little in the way of training,that's what matters. It speaks volumes in terms of respect for the craft. It's the reputation Jennifer Lawrence has based on reports from directors, castmates, etc.,. and there has never been anything written or stated to the contrary. Anyway, if Thompson is going to talk about reactions at the BAFTAS, well, be fair and include Chastain as well. Honestly, that's about all I'd have to say about the subject: there wasn't a nasty look from Lawrence just disappointment...the same look Chastain gave and neither was a big deal but, if you are going to bring it up at all, mention Chastain as well.
February 15, 2013 at 9:03PM ESTAndrea Jessica Chastain smiled and looked happy when Riva won.
February 16, 2013 at 2:14AM ESTLawrence did not smile and did not look happy.
Other than that they were exactly the same
Evan
February 15, 2013 at 7:02PM EST Reply to CommentJust a minor correction: Waste Land was about Brazil, not India.
But about the doc shorts, Open Heart is definitely lacking the gravitas of Saving Face. And though I haven't seen Smile Pinki, I gather from the ceremony that year that it had a lot more heart (no pun intended) than Open Heart.
My personal favorite was Mondays at Racine, which I thought was the most thorough and really took you through the character's journey, thereby earning your sympathy, rather than plopping you down in it and expecting you to care (like Inocente did, with her saying that she was homeless in the opening minute). I did think that Inocente was the most beautifully shot though. And, of course, it's about art which might give it a leg up with the Academy.
I too expect one of those to win.
And lastly, re: Kings Point, while it was cold in the end, the opening was extremely warm with a number of the ladies (Gertie comes to mind) being absolutely hilarious. That's why I think the coldness at the end is all the more powerful: they've really buttered you up before then.
Evan About Curfew- the other important consideration is that it's the only one in English. That can only help it.
February 15, 2013 at 7:06PM ESTTravis
February 15, 2013 at 8:08PM EST Reply to CommentKris (or anybody out there with knowledge),
Do you know if voters can alter their online ballot before the Tuesday deadline? Or is it a one time process where their selections are locked in after they submit.
Kristopher Tapley I don't know for sure, but if I were to guess, I'd say it's locked in once you vote.
February 15, 2013 at 8:55PM ESTEdwin
February 15, 2013 at 8:41PM EST Reply to CommentUnfortunately, I think the controversy surrounding "Zero Dark Thirty" has overwhelmed the movie so much that it will undoubtedly be the headline of the WGA whether it wins or loses. If it wins, people will be saying that the writers are making a stand and sticking up for the movie; if it loses, people will blame the controversy. So sadly, I think Boal is in a lose-lose situation there, because most people seem to be past the point of being able to interpret any praise for that movie outside the lens of its controversy.
When it comes to the screenplay categories, though, it seems like the Academy voters have gone their own way more often than in the other major categories. Look at "Precious" or "The Pianist," for example. As I recall, neither of them won any precursor prizes for their screenplays. So I'm not reading too much into Quentin Tarantino's Golden Globe and BAFTA wins. Like most other categories this year, I think both screenplay awards are up for grabs. Adapted Screenplay is a 3-way race to me, and honestly, the only movie I'm counting out in Original Screenplay is "Flight." Yes, I do think "Moonrise Kingdom" has a shot. A very slight one, but a shot nonetheless.
Prettok Moonrise benefits from screenplay being its only nomination. This is the only place on the ballot its fans can support it.
February 16, 2013 at 1:27AM ESTJLPatt Not really. The last film to win Best Original Screenplay when that was its only nomination was 1957. Seriously. 55 years ago.
February 16, 2013 at 2:15AM ESTVictor S
February 15, 2013 at 11:02PM EST Reply to CommentI went to imdb.com to check to last Oscar nominee I haven't seen and now I'm really depressed and embarassed. Since I started with the Oscars I've missed 28 titles that got nominated for something: The Tempest: Hereafter; The Way Back; Another Year; The Lovely Bones; Paris 36; Norbit; August Rush; Half Nelson; Venus; Transamerica; Vera Drake; Pieces of April; The Time Machine; Sexy Beast; Before Night Falls; Straight Story; Sweet and Lowdown; Tumbleweeds; Little Voice; Beloved; Quest for Camelot; The Apostle; Ulee's Gold; Afterglow; Donnie Brasco and Kundun.
M.
February 16, 2013 at 3:44PM EST Reply to Comment@Andrea: Nope...the reactions were pretty much the same. My point is, Thompson used the words "shocked and horrified" (LOL!) as an explanation for why Lawrence may not win the Oscar and ...c'mon, Lawrence did not look "shocked or horrified" it's untrue and unfair. Look, I think all the performances are wonderful and all are deserving. I just thought Thompson's comment (and it's the second week in a row that she has targeted Lawrence)was silly.
Kristopher Tapley She conflated Russell's reaction with Lawrence's. Let's move on.
February 16, 2013 at 6:39PM EST