Oscar Talk: Ep. 104 -- 'Argo' steamroller
How much farther can it go?
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Welcome to Oscar Talk.
In case you're new to the site and/or the podcast, Oscar Talk is a weekly kudocast, your one-stop awards chat shop between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood. The podcast is weekly, every Friday throughout the season, charting the ups and downs of contenders along the way. Plenty of things change en route to Oscar's stage and we're here to address it all as it unfolds.
It's pretty clear now that Ben Affleck's "Argo" is on a roll with the guilds after winning the PGA prize and the SAG ensemble award. Will that stretch into the DGA Awards this weekend?
Meanwhile, tributes at the Santa Barbara Film Festival this weekend pitted the film (via a Ben Affleck retrospective) against "Lincoln" (via a Daniel Day-Lewis retrospective).
If indeed the film continues the streak, ballots are still not in Academy members' hands yet. That happens next week. Will "they" want to push back a bit or just fall in line?
Some categories seem to be in real flux. We discuss Best Director, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor.
Have a listen to the new podcast below. If the file cuts off for you at any time, try the back-up download link at the bottom of this post. You to subscribe to Oscar Talk via iTunes here. And as always, if you have a question you'd like us to address on a future podcast, send it to OscarTalk@HitFix.com.
"Here I Come" courtesy of Stuart Park.
2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupRichardZ
February 1, 2013 at 2:16PM EST Reply to CommentIf Lincoln doesn't BP, I still don't think Spielberg will automatically get Best Director. Hard to argue with Anne Thompson still.
Joseph
February 1, 2013 at 2:33PM EST Reply to CommentI'm picking Benh Zeitlin!
Jonnybon I think he's the only one that definitely couldn't win it.
February 1, 2013 at 2:51PM ESTJonnybon
February 1, 2013 at 3:19PM EST Reply to CommentGet watching WAR WITCH! My personal favourite of the foreign nominees, fantastic as Amour is. War Witch has everything.
Brian D
February 1, 2013 at 3:39PM EST Reply to CommentYou seem offended by Tommy Lee Jones' absence at SAG. He had the same flu that everyone else had, but he's an older man and would have to travel. So I can see why he would think it wise to skip.
You seem almost offended by his decision to stay home and get better.
Kristopher Tapley I'm not at all offended. I'm making the point that him not showing up doesn't really help as far as face time goes. And it doesn't. (Though I frankly didn't know about the flu thing.)
February 1, 2013 at 3:53PM ESTI'm the last guy to beat up on someone for not attending an awards show.
Anthony
February 1, 2013 at 6:37PM EST Reply to CommentI agree that Hoffman should be the clear front runner in the Supporting Actor race. Why is Anne Hathaway the front runner for Best Supporting Actress? People say she should win just based on her rendition of I Dreamed a Dream. Even though she sang well, shaved her hair, and lost weight, I don't think her acting in the film is as good as Sally Field and Helen Hunt.
praetor To me, Hathaway wasn't even the best supporting actress in Les Miserables.
February 1, 2013 at 7:43PM ESTDylanS The reason Field wont win is as simple as the fact that it would be her 3rd win on 3 nominations. As we know, the Academy likes her, they really like her, but I just don't know if they really really really like her. ;)
February 1, 2013 at 8:30PM ESTDylanS And I think Anne Hathaway is pretty exceptional in "Les Mis", but, especially on a second viewing, I think Samantha Barks is either every bit as good as her or maybe even better. And she was also better in "Dark Knight Rises"
February 1, 2013 at 8:40PM ESTGeorge Kaplan You subjected yourself to LES MIS twice?! You poor baby, go eat a cookie and take a nap. You've suffered enough.
February 2, 2013 at 12:05AM ESTJJ1 I Dreamed a Dream aside, I actually think Hathaway as still excellent. The entire deathbed scene and earlier before she sings her big song, "don't they know they're making love to one already deaddddddd". Her delivery of that was bone chilling to me.
February 2, 2013 at 12:41AM ESTAnd I agree about Samantha Barks. She just misses my top 5, but I think she was pretty neglected in the awards season. I just liked her acting/singing choices, and her 2 songs are great.
JLPatt
February 2, 2013 at 2:04AM EST Reply to CommentAgain, although Hoffman is the best in that category, he's not a supporting actor. I would not vote for him simply on that fact.
/3rt Lancaster Dodd is secondary to Freddie Quell our primary character. We don't spent time with Dodd once Freddie abandons him—our focus remains Freddie from beginning to end.
February 2, 2013 at 2:42AM ESTJLPatt They're co-leads. The focus is squarely on both of them. If we want to talk actual screen presence, which is mostly irrelevant, then even in that case Freddie drops off for large chunks of time. The movie is just as much about Freddie as it is about Lancaster. Two-hander.
February 2, 2013 at 3:32AM ESTKristopher Tapley Nevertheless, not voting for him because of your subjective view of what a supporting performance is (which may or may not be shared elsewhere) is silly. At some point it boils down to best performance nominated in the category. To pick an inferior (in your view) performance over his makes no sense whatsoever and is pretty limp as a personal "statement."
February 2, 2013 at 5:10PM ESTJLPatt
February 2, 2013 at 2:04AM EST Reply to CommentAgain, although Hoffman is the best in that category, he's not a supporting actor. I would not vote for him simply on that fact.
deedee Emanuelle Riva is going to win.
February 2, 2013 at 10:57AM ESTLaura Stewart
February 2, 2013 at 10:28PM EST Reply to CommentHad to chuckle when you asked Anne if you guys would have enough material for the next 4 weeks... you guys slogged through last year, so you can pretty much do anything at this point. #neverforget
Edwin
February 3, 2013 at 12:17AM EST Reply to CommentQuestion: if Ben Affleck wins the DGA, and then the BAFTA throws us a curve ball and picks Haneke (for which there is precedent...see Paul Greengrass and Pedro Almdovar for other examples of directors winning without a Best Film nod), who will be the frontrunner for the Oscar? Surely nobody would ever get so confident as to call Michael Haneke the frontrunner, but if he somehow ends up being the only nominee to have won a major precursor award, wouldn't he by default be considered a major contender?
Michael W.
February 3, 2013 at 1:04PM EST Reply to CommentIf Spielberg of Lee doesn't win both picture and director at the Baftas, I'm picking Argo for picture and Haneke for director at the Oscars. Right now I feel that's the most likely scenario.
Michael W. Oh, and then I remembered that Spielberg isn't even nominated for the Bafta!
February 3, 2013 at 1:06PM ESTHmmm...