Oscar Talk: Ep. 101 -- Mulling over the tight races in the home stretch
Is 'Skyfall' a threat? Are we calling it too early for 'The Master?'
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Welcome to Oscar Talk.
In case you're new to the site and/or the podcast, Oscar Talk is a weekly kudocast, your one-stop awards chat shop between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood. The podcast is weekly, every Friday throughout the season, charting the ups and downs of contenders along the way. Plenty of things change en route to Oscar's stage and we're here to address it all as it unfolds.
There's only one order of business this week as we charge into the new year with Oscar nominations right around the corner: firming up predictions. Of course, we won't offer up final thoughts on those until next week but in the meantime, there are plenty of close races to mull over and attempt to handicap, so we give it our best.
Have a listen to the new podcast below. If the file cuts off for you at any time, try the back-up download link at the bottom of this post. You to subscribe to Oscar Talk via iTunes here. And as always, if you have a question you'd like us to address on a future podcast, send it to OscarTalk@HitFix.com.
"Here I Come" courtesy of Stuart Park.
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2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupPaul Outlaw
January 4, 2013 at 1:18PM EST Reply to Comment"Let the sky fall..."
/3rt
January 4, 2013 at 1:57PM EST Reply to CommentWhat are your gripes with 'Middle of Nowhere'?
Kristopher Tapley Long discussion. Just didn't work for me.
January 4, 2013 at 1:58PM EST/3rt Fair enough.
January 4, 2013 at 2:19PM ESTdan
January 4, 2013 at 2:09PM EST Reply to CommentYou guys mention the DP in The Master. I wonder if Robert Ellswit had more control over PTA than anyone thinks and becuase of that PTA was able to run over the Masters DP. I'm wondering if he gets Ellswit back for Inherent Vice if that will become more obvious.
/3rt He doesn't need his former DP. THE MASTER stands gorgeous as is. What I do want is Leslie Jones editing his movies from now on. She cuts everything to the bone and he certainly needs someone who is precious about keeping every bit of film in (Nights; Magnolia; Blood).
January 4, 2013 at 2:21PM EST/3rt *who isn't precious
January 4, 2013 at 2:22PM ESTKristopher Tapley Yeah, I don't get this whole thing. Sounds like Anne was talking to people who were extrapolating.
January 4, 2013 at 2:36PM ESTweed4504 I thought the idea that PTA is "divisive" and not loved by the industry is a fairly hard argument to back up. I've read constant praise from many actors and directors who view him as one of, if not the, great American filmmaking auteurs right now.
January 5, 2013 at 12:25AM ESTAlso, PTA has recently said he hopes Elswit will return for Inherent Vice.
Blake I attended a cinematography master class with Bob Elswit last June, and coming from him, he said PTA and his DP on The Master were having difficulties on set, though he didn't go into any detail. As Bob describes it, he and Anderson have an organic shorthand when working on set, and he sees that rooted in the fact that the two appreciate the same films from the 50s-70s. There's just a lot of trust in that Director/DP relationship, and that's why they work so well together. So there seems to be some truth in what Anne was suggesting.
January 5, 2013 at 3:03PM ESTKristopher Tapley Ok, but so? Does any of that drama show up in the work? I don't really get the significance of it. PTA is notoriously difficult.
January 7, 2013 at 12:59AM ESTN8
January 4, 2013 at 2:43PM EST Reply to CommentTempting as it is to be optimistic, I don't think Deakins is happening. Dude's cursed. Besides, "Best Cinematography" seems to have become an extension of "Best Visual Effects" in the Academy's eyes lately. Life of Pi takes it.
Kristopher Tapley Obviously the safe bet. Still won't uncross my fingers.
January 4, 2013 at 2:49PM ESTred_wine Pi will obviously win Cine and VFX and take a horrifying streak to 4 years. Its just hugely distressing that 4 four films which were reliant on CG for almost anything in them worth looking at will have won for cinematography 4 years in a row.
January 4, 2013 at 4:46PM ESTJoe7827 I'm sorry, but what exactly did the CGI contribute to Life of Pi's cinematography? To me, the lovely lighting, colors, and framing were all Miranda.
January 4, 2013 at 9:11PM ESTI wouldn't cry about his win just yet, anyway. If Skyfall gets that Best Picture nod, then Deakins might be the favorite.
red_wine The movie was shot in a boat, moving on a rig, in a blue screen hall that was then replaced with the sky and ocean and Richard Parker. In the middle stretch of the movie takes place on the sea, almost everything you saw on screen apart from the boy was CGI.
January 5, 2013 at 3:12AM ESTLaura Stewart
January 4, 2013 at 2:54PM EST Reply to CommentThe Master was this years Young Adult for me. A critics darling that was entirely misunderstood by the folks who vote for these awards. Sad but true. 10 years from now we will be talking about The Master... not friggin' SLP or Les Miserables. Or even Life of Pi.
Kyle Pinion Possibly/Hopefully on The Master, but is anybody still talking about Young Adult? I had to think for a second what that even was...
January 4, 2013 at 6:30PM ESTdaveylo I won't be talking about The Master next month.
January 4, 2013 at 8:53PM ESTforg Never wise to "tell the the future" now, we can never tell
January 4, 2013 at 11:22PM ESTEvan
January 4, 2013 at 3:50PM EST Reply to CommentGlad to have you guys back. Happy New Year!
Re: the Foreign Films, Steve Pond has said a few things that contradicted Anne's appraisal of the situation. He reported that the response to A Royal Affair was varied and "unexpectedly muted." He also said that No played well to the committee, and that War Witch got "favorable notices from [committee] members."
I'm predicting the same as you (I think), Kris-- Amour, The Intouchables, No, A Royal Affair, and War Witch-- but I wouldn't be surprised to see 'Affair' drop off.
Also, Kris, they're playing The Deep and Kon-Tiki at Lincoln Center this Saturday night. I can't remember if you said you were in-town this weekend or not, but if so-- check them out.
Kristopher Tapley Yeah I just noticed that earlier today. Got a War Witch screener on the way and I'll try to make that double feature tomorrow.
January 4, 2013 at 5:17PM ESTdaveylo I was planning to see The Deep-Kon Tiki double bill but I'm stuck in CT with a bad cold. Would have been nice to meet some people who post here.
January 4, 2013 at 8:47PM ESTGuy Lodge I can easily imagine that War Witch got in without the committee's help. Packs a hefty emotional punch, that one.
January 5, 2013 at 7:38PM ESTbrace
January 4, 2013 at 4:07PM EST Reply to CommentKon-Tiki might get in in the foreign language category because the same named documentary about that expedition won best documentary in 1950 so it's in a way part of the Oscar history.
Guy Lodge I wouldn't count on many of the voters knowing that.
January 5, 2013 at 7:40PM ESTAlex in Movieland
January 4, 2013 at 6:19PM EST Reply to CommentKris, I think you were right to include "No" & "War Witch", because otherwise there'll be 5 European films - which we know WON'T happen.
Just replace Royal Affair with "Beyond the Hills" (taking the Dogtooth place) and there's the list. :)
Evan I've also been toying with the idea that the special committee will go for Beyond the Hills. The (seemingly) most unlikely nominee has been nominated quite frequently since this new system came into being (plus, there's the whole "Making it up to Mungiu" thing).
January 5, 2013 at 4:26PM ESTUltimately though, I think I've decided that it's too slow-paced to end up a nominee. But who knows...
Conor
January 4, 2013 at 7:01PM EST Reply to CommentI know Anne's not the only one predicting it, but Silver Linings Playbook getting a director nod just doesn't make sense to me. I can't see directors going for it over other movies in such a competitive year.
JLPatt Disagreed. It's a beautifully directed film and similar dramedies have been nominated for their directors in the past (see Reitman for "Juno" and "Up in the Air," and Payne last year for "Descendants").
January 4, 2013 at 7:04PM ESTConor Ah, too true. The latter two of those did get director nods from the Globes though, for what it's worth.
January 4, 2013 at 7:33PM ESTdaveylo
January 4, 2013 at 7:02PM EST Reply to CommentI liked Skyfall but I wouldn't call Mendes "a truly great director." He's a much more gifted stage director.
James Not to mention he made nolan's bond, and is getting credit for making a "fresh bond".
January 4, 2013 at 7:11PM ESTKristopher Tapley These are all ignorant statements. Well, James's anyway. I'll concede Skyfall took some cues from TDK -- I was one of the first talking about that. But if you don't get that Mendes is a craftsman I don't think you've been paying attention to his work.
January 4, 2013 at 7:44PM ESTJames Cues? there is WAY too much TDK and Inception in Skyfall for Logan and Mendes to deserve credit for reinventing James Bond. They took someone else's work/vision and applied it. Story, characters, set design, score, ect is all very, very Nolan-ish. I know Nolan has taken some cues from the Bond films in the past, but come on. They even used some of the same jokes (subtle car gag) ugh.
January 4, 2013 at 9:02PM ESTCall it what you want (and I liked Skyfall quite a bit), but there is no way to downplay Mendes applying other peoples work here. Paul Greengrass deserves a mention as well.
What new/original idea or vision did Mendes add?
daveylo I may be too harsh regarding Mendes' film work. I thought American Beauty and The Road to Perdition owed a lot to Conrad Hall's input. Revolutionary Road was a disappointment to me, despite the valiant efforts of the actors. I've enjoyed Away We Go because it was less heavy handed. Skyfall was very entertaining for me and then surprisingly moving but I can see why Mendes is being accused of making an anti-Bond film. The thing is I've loved the work Mendes has done on stage at BAM. His productions of Uncle Vanya and Twelfth Night with Simon Russell Beale and Emily Watson were so magical. And his co-direction of Cabaret on stage was stunning.
January 4, 2013 at 9:06PM ESTPaul Outlaw You forget JARHEAD, which in some respects is my favorite pre-SKYFALL Mendes.
January 5, 2013 at 12:42AM ESTKristopher Tapley You're overstating it James. Also, I never said Mendes "re-invented" Bond, I don't think.
January 5, 2013 at 1:01AM ESTDavey: Owed a lot to Connie Hall's input? I kind of hate comments like that. You weren't on that set. You don't know what that relationship was. You think Mendes just lucked into his personnel? Part of a director's job is putting a crew together. The other part, by the way, is having them exact your vision.
daveylo I wish I could find the interview with Mendes but he mentioned he owed a great deal to Hall for American Beauty's look and to the editor. So I think they helped him a lot on the first film. Why do you underrate collaboration in film? Not all directors are auteurs or visionaries.
January 5, 2013 at 1:16AM ESTJames How am I overstating it Kris? When someone can point to almost 20-30 things (some major plot-points and famous scenes) from another movie, it's a rip-off. Plain and simple. Look, I liked the movie, but it's weak sauce that anyone would celebrate Mendes and Logan for outright installing another director(s) vision. I just think they went over the "inspired by" line.
January 5, 2013 at 1:33AM ESTWhat did Mendes bring to the table here? What does his voice add to the conversation? Nothing, and should THAT be applauded!? Sorry if I come across as overtly aggressiv, but I guess I don't celebrate the "sloppy seconds".
And I agree with your second argument (aimed towards Davey)
red_wine At this point I have even seen Nolan fans state that Citizen Kane was inspired by Nolan, so them stating that Skyfall was inspired by Nolan is hardly a surprise.
January 5, 2013 at 3:16AM ESTJames And someone pulled the fanboy card:-) The story of the internet.
January 5, 2013 at 10:03AM ESTKristopher Tapley "Why do you underrate collaboration in film?"
January 5, 2013 at 3:26PM ESTI don't so please don't put words into my mouth. I think you're underrated directorial vision, however.
James: Because you're using a sledgehammer to take note of something that doesn't demand the heavy-handedness.
JLPatt
January 4, 2013 at 7:02PM EST Reply to CommentAm I crazy or did you guys not mention Jackson for the Best Actor nominees?
JLPatt Ugh, *Jackman*.
January 4, 2013 at 7:03PM ESTdaveylo Jackman was left out for some reason.
January 4, 2013 at 9:07PM ESTKristopher Tapley Not for any reason. It's just a pretty well-defined race so some things go without mentioning.
January 5, 2013 at 1:01AM ESTAndrew Wait, so you see Jackman and denzel edging out phoenix? You guys said phoenix is "sixth," but I'm not sure I heard five that put him there.
January 5, 2013 at 4:42AM ESTKristopher Tapley Seriously? Jackman goes without saying. He was the fifth. Why are you guys getting hung up on this? See the five in my Best Actor predictions? We just didn't meditate on the category in the podcast. Those are the five pushing Phoenix out. Done.
January 5, 2013 at 3:27PM ESTdaveylo
January 4, 2013 at 7:06PM EST Reply to CommentGosh, this is advertisement for Tarantino.
Paul Outlaw The saddest (for lack of a better word) thing about next week's Oscar nominations announcement will be the continued presence of Django Unchained and Silver Linings Playbook in this year's Oscar conversation.
January 4, 2013 at 8:02PM ESTKristopher Tapley Or...a conversation?
January 4, 2013 at 8:54PM ESTdaveylo
January 4, 2013 at 7:14PM EST Reply to CommentI think Moonrise will get in. When you look over all the titles, you tend to look at it fondly.
Paul Outlaw From your keyboard...
January 4, 2013 at 8:02PM ESTdaveylo
January 4, 2013 at 7:15PM EST Reply to CommentLee just got another guild honor from the Visual Effects group.
Kristopher Tapley Covered in this morning's round-up.
January 4, 2013 at 7:45PM ESTdaveylo Just mentioned it because it may strengthen his case for getting a DGA nomination.
January 4, 2013 at 9:08PM ESTdaveylo
January 4, 2013 at 7:17PM EST Reply to CommentHugh Jackman is much more solid than Washington.
DylanS I'd wager Jackman is the number 2 after Day-Lewis. Some people have gripes about his singing, but I think most were moved by his performance and also, I get the sense that people love him, and rightly so, because he seems like a nice dude.
January 4, 2013 at 9:08PM ESTdaveylo I don't know how many women vote in the Academy but they LOVE Jackman -- and of course, so do some men :-)!
January 4, 2013 at 9:09PM ESTJLPatt Yeah, have no idea how Anne left him out, and Kris didn't even correct her. Jackman has to be considered a lock, no?
January 4, 2013 at 9:15PM ESTKristopher Tapley See above.
January 5, 2013 at 1:02AM ESTdaveylo
January 4, 2013 at 7:24PM EST Reply to CommentAmy Adams is not going to be nominated. It would be wild if Dench and Smith were nominated.
daveylo I suppose I shouldn't sound so sure about Adams. But I just get this anti-Master vibe the past few weeks.
January 4, 2013 at 9:10PM ESTdaveylo
January 4, 2013 at 7:31PM EST Reply to CommentI saw A Royal Affair on a big screen. Loved the acting and story.
Edwin
January 4, 2013 at 7:37PM EST Reply to CommentI'm predicting "Django" to make it in, but I still think Anne is being a bit overconfident about it. I keep getting "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" vibes from its Oscar potential, and it really hasn't done much better than that movie did with the precursors. Again, I do think it will be nominated, but I certainly wouldn't find it shocking if it missed.
Kristopher Tapley Me too.
January 4, 2013 at 7:45PM ESTJJ1 Even though i really dug it, i agree that Django Screams Dragon Tattoo miss to me, as well. Too violent. And too late.
January 4, 2013 at 11:28PM ESTHoustonRufus I agree with this. I get that Tarantino is respected. But as I watched Django, it was hard for me to see the Academy swooning over it. It's a tougher sell than Basterds, in my opinion. I'm still predicting it, too, but not with confidence.
January 5, 2013 at 11:15AM ESTPaul Outlaw
January 4, 2013 at 8:11PM EST Reply to CommentNo one's mentioned Eddie Redmayne, who could be as much of a spoiler in Supporting as Bardem.
daveylo Would love Redmayne to be nominated. He will get a BAFTA nomination and could even win.
January 4, 2013 at 8:51PM ESTAl Redmayne seemed to have lost steam almost immediately as soon as conversation began. Certainly a threat, but not quite the spoiler that Bardem is.
January 4, 2013 at 9:14PM ESTDylanS I'm really hoping Samantha Barks can land a BAFTA and also shows up for Oscar. It's a weak category, and I think it's possible.
January 4, 2013 at 9:16PM ESTJJ1 If Les Mis is huge with the academy, I could see him taking the 5th spot that seems floundering between Bardem, , Dicaprio, Waltz, Jackson, and Mcgregor.
January 4, 2013 at 11:30PM ESTKristopher Tapley
January 4, 2013 at 8:55PM EST Reply to CommentWrite a comment...FYI, I was told Django went to DGA. It did not. Just to correct that.
Joe7827
January 4, 2013 at 9:02PM EST Reply to CommentIn response to the "well, if last year was so sucky and it had 9 nominees, then this year has to have more nominees" comments. Quality of year doesn't necessarily correlate with number of nominees. Last year, generally considered weaker, ended up with 9 nominees because there weren't as many great movies at the top, so the voters had to reach out to other non-consensus titles, leading to more spreading of wealth. I'm not sure it'll happen this year, because the frontrunners are actually good, so it's not as much of a free-for-all for voters (at least, it doesn't need to be).
DylanS I also think it has a great deal to do with how solidified the "top five" nominees. If they aren't solidified (like last year, where some thought "The Help" was in the top 5, and others "Moneyball" or something else), but this year it seems pretty clear with Lincoln, Argo, Les Miserables, Zero Dark and Silver Linings as the top 5
January 4, 2013 at 9:15PM ESTdaveylo Or maybe Life of Pi is in top 5.
January 4, 2013 at 9:37PM ESTDylanS I think Kris brought up a key point about Life of Pi with the limp campaign. It really doesn't feel like it has much of presence, yet there are many who love it. I think it could have been a top 5, but I can't imagine which of those 5 would be out, and I think that will reflect in the Director nominations.
January 4, 2013 at 9:47PM ESTKristopher Tapley I don't really think this computes.
January 5, 2013 at 3:29PM ESTJoe7827 Which part doesn't compute? All I'm suggesting is that sometimes in good years, there's greater consensus on the top films, so there aren't a lot of leftover votes going to other (6-10) films. Whereas in weaker years, since there's more disagreement, the votes tend to be more spread out.
January 5, 2013 at 4:10PM ESTTo use a non-movie example: if RG3 wins ROY unanimously, does that mean there weren't any other good rookies? Of course not. It just means that most people could agree that RG3 was the best of the best. Whereas in other years, if the rookies aren't as strong, the votes might be more spread out.
I don't know. Maybe it's hard to explain, but it makes sense to me.
Kristopher Tapley I don't think there's consensus on a small amount of films. I sense passion across a wide spectrum. Ergo, a wide spectrum has a shot at getting in.
January 5, 2013 at 5:38PM ESTJoe7827 Fair enough. That may very well be the case, and my theory wouldn't apply for this year. I'd still say that consensus (or lack thereof) doesn't exactly equate to quality, though.
January 6, 2013 at 12:12AM ESTRiley
January 5, 2013 at 12:42AM EST Reply to CommentI was just curious about what you heard about The Intouchables seeing as you moved it up to 11 in your Best Picture predictions.
Kristopher Tapley It's on a lot of people's lips all of a sudden.
January 5, 2013 at 1:03AM EST