Off the Carpet: Why I want to see 'Argo' win Best Picture at the Oscars
Ben Affleck's sturdy drama still has an angle on this race
"Argo" producers Ben Affleck, Grant Heslov and George Clooney at the 70th annual Golden Globe Awards
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The last 100 hours or so in Hollywood has been intriguing, to say the least. The Oscar nominations on Thursday sent a series of shockwaves throughout the industry and were marvelously reflective of a tightly contended, stellar year of filmmaking. And of course, two names have been on everyone's lips since the Thursday morning bombshell: Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow.
First and foremost, I don't think it's an "embarrassment" that they were left off the list of Best Director nominees. That word has been thrown around a lot this weekend but I think it's a facile direction to go. Let's be honest. Steven Spielberg, Ang Lee, Michael Haneke, Benh Zeitlin and, though I don't like the film, David O. Russell (it is, after all, a genre rarely recognized, certainly for direction) is a strong, fascinating slate of nominees. And it would appear the two who scooted Affleck and Bigelow out of the mix were Haneke and Zeitlin. So let's look at that.
We have the director of a foreign film and the young mind behind a fabulous independent film that has become a Cinderella story. It's hard to hate on that kind of vision from this branch, truly. The intrigue in that category this year has everything to do with the drum I've been banging all year long: this has been an incredibly competitive season, particularly in the Best Director arena, where Affleck and Bigelow certainly have illustrious company on the sidelines.
With all of that out of the way, there is obviously something interesting in the air this season. While the Critics' Choice Movie Awards and Golden Globes happened outside the frame of Oscar voting, they have built an incredible amount of momentum for "Argo." Last night after the show, Warner Bros. publicists were adamant that they still had a shot. Of course, they wanted to take council and feel it out. "What do you think our chances are, honestly?" But the vibe I got was one of not throwing the towel in by a longshot, and that passion can go a long way.
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The theories abound. Maybe the directors figured Affleck and Bigelow were safe and sound so they let their vote be heard elsewhere. Maybe they wanted to put an actor-turned-director in his place as they did Ron Howard in 1995. And on that note, Howard won the DGA that year. I think there's a very real possibility that Affleck does the same. But it was, of course, "Braveheart" that ultimately took the Oscar.
Things are a little different this time around, however. The preferential ballot is the best ammunition the campaign has right now. "Argo" and "Silver Linings Playbook" are the only two films that seem to be universally praised when I talk to Academy members. There's just never a bad word said about them. They are, again, generally agreeable. And when those #2 and #3 votes start mattering, they'll be showing up there.
There's also the idea floating around that there could be a sense of reactive goodwill to Affleck's snub. Normally I'd call that hogwash because things speed up in the second phase, but this year, again, is different. We have six weeks. That's such a massive amount of time to flex a strategy, and when you're as motivated as the Warner Bros. team is now, that matters.
Of course, others will pull out their tricks. DreamWorks and Steven Spielberg flashed their ace in the hole last night when Bill Clinton presented the "Lincoln" clip and in his comments, cemented the film's zeitgeist status (and could have even sewn up the Oscar then and there). Harvey Weinstein obviously has a playbook for this kind of thing. And Fox will certainly sit back and gladly watch the blood fest as their unassuming 11-nominee wonder from a visionary (that has raked in more box office than any other Best Picture nominee worldwide) looks for its opportunity. But I would wager none of them have the same drive Warner has now.
My favorite film of the Best Picture nominees is "Django Unchained." My second favorite is "Amour" and my third favorite is "Lincoln." If I'm honest, I think one of those three should win. But if I'm REALLY honest, I'd say I don't really want to see that. "Django" could get its reward in the screenplay arena where Quentin Tarantino has already been recognized in the past. "Amour" is a massive longshot and it seems to me the win is in the nominations. Plus, a win for Emmanuelle Riva (which is very possible) would be a great piece of recognition for the film. Spielberg, meanwhile, has been amply rewarded and Daniel Day-Lewis will make a lovely steward for the film on Oscar night. But an "Argo" win is the stuff of storybooks.
I know some find the film thematically flat or dramatically manipulative and people are free to their opinion. I would argue that we need more films like "Argo," mid-budget dramas that don't bog down in brand appeal and find an audience rather than die on the vine and yield safe, overtly commercial productions. But Affleck's story these last few years is an inspiring one. A decade ago, his name was literally a joke. And he's climbed out of that pit tooth and nail and shown real chops in the process. To see him take the stage on Oscar night as part of a Best Picture-winning "Argo" crew, hopping over this last hurdle in the Best Director category, would just be the ultimate capper on this journey. Speaking personally, it would just register more as an Oscar win than any other film in the category.
Those are the moments I like at the Oscars. Objectivity on quality has to go out the window. We all like what we like and think this or that should win for a reason. But, objectively, Ben Affleck deserves this leg up. He's earned it.
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2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Next 96 Commentsred_wine
January 14, 2013 at 3:57PM EST Reply to CommentThe Academy's Go **** yourself to Affleck was immensely satisfying. To see this hack treated as if her were Ingmar Bergman is distinctly unpleasant. The Academy is courageous and wise and needs to be applauded for turning up their noses at such abject mediocrity.
Kristopher Tapley "To see this hack treated as if her [sic] were Ingmar Bergman is distinctly unpleasant."
January 14, 2013 at 3:59PM ESTI'm quite sure this was your own unique perspective. But as for the rest, as I said, everyone is free to his or her opinion.
Bob Affleck's 3 directorial efforts have been outstanding and he's improved each time. What are you watching?
January 14, 2013 at 4:02PM ESTred_wine @Bob I find his direction like that of an ordinary thriller, the likes of which are released dime a dozen every year. And he directs like, forgive the phrase, a newbie. His films amply demonstrate themselves as the works of an artist still learning the ropes. They are cocky but not assured in their mastery. And some of his work is SO bad. The enitre last act of Argo is really badly written, directed and edited cinema.
January 14, 2013 at 4:12PM ESTI think it would be a shame to have this year of all represented by Argo as the best that Hollywood could produce.
Liz You're arguing against people comparing him to Ingmar Bergman? Nice strawman. I'd love to see a link or a quote from anyone making that claim.
January 14, 2013 at 4:37PM ESTGRubi I king of want Argo to win now..., just because Red Wine is acting like a jerk and it would put him in his place.
January 14, 2013 at 5:37PM ESTchatty kathy To Red Wine: Bitter,Party of one, your table is ready. What have YOU directed lately? Ever? yeah. I thought so. STFU
January 14, 2013 at 6:06PM ESTB I like Argo, but I feel like the pity party for him has gone overboard. I mean, the standing O are more embarrassing than his lack of nomination.
January 14, 2013 at 6:10PM ESTJohn C. Don't really get the Bergman comment but have to say I mostly agree with Red Wine. The accolades for this film, which is good as far as it goes (that last act is indeed appalling) really are over the top. Just because Affleck's no longer a joke doesn't mean he deserves a directing Oscar and that his movie deserves to win Best Picture.
January 14, 2013 at 6:35PM ESTKane Appalling? The opening was one of the best scenes of any movie this year. Guaranteed, if the director's name said "Alan Smithee" it would still get accolades.
January 14, 2013 at 8:04PM ESTRichardZ
January 14, 2013 at 4:01PM EST Reply to CommentI agree that hopefully a win for Argo would mean that more movies like this for adults will get made.
Also, it's my favorite to win the Oscar based on its craft.
AmericanRequiem
January 14, 2013 at 4:11PM EST Reply to CommentHeres my worry, so Argo takes picture....what else? Possibly editing? Screenplay is looking to be Kushner's.Theres a real possibility its only win could be best picture.
Also, I think the Town was by far Afflecks best work so far.
I think we need more films like Lincoln,and I hope it wins. But what a season!
Patrick "Theres a real possibility its only win could be best picture."
January 14, 2013 at 4:21PM ESTInteresting, and I agree, since I feel like Lincoln has screenplay and Zero Dark Thirty has editing.
If Argo does win Best Picture without any other wins, it would be the first film to do so since Mutiny On The Bounty, 77 years ago.
Conor I think Argo takes editing.. It's suspenseful and I just don't see ZDT getting it. I'm wondering though if winning editing and BP is a possible awards tally for Argo. Even Crash had 3, but you never know what could happen.
January 14, 2013 at 4:31PM ESTPatrick But if the Academy had to choose between rewarding William Goldenberg by himself for Argo vs. William Goldenberg PLUS Dylan Tichenor for Zero Dark Thirty, why not pick the latter? Seems like such a harmless way of spreading the wealth.
January 14, 2013 at 4:55PM ESTConor Good point, but the Academy isn't historically good at spreading the wealth, though in this case if they saw the names on the ballot they'd be more likely to go that way... Eh.. I just feel they'd rather honor Argo for editing and don't care about the gesture.
January 14, 2013 at 5:01PM ESTCaptainCanada While there are exceptions, I don't think the Academy as a general rule pays any attention to the names of the artists in the technical categories. Roger Deakins' perennial losing would be a prime example of that. If they're voting "Argo" for Best Picture, Editing seems an obvious box to check in its favour.
January 14, 2013 at 5:16PM ESTd2 Argo could also win Film Editing and maybe a surprise win for sound...in addition to Best Picture
January 14, 2013 at 5:53PM ESTCaptainCanada That's pretty slender support for a Best Picture win.
January 14, 2013 at 6:11PM ESTJoe W Reply to comment...
January 14, 2013 at 9:53PM ESTJoe W ^ woops.
January 14, 2013 at 9:54PM EST@Patrick, you forget that the Academy only sees the name of the movie for below-the-line categories. Most of them don't know who the editor(s) is. They only see "Argo" "Zero Dark Thirty" etc
GlennAU One would have to assume that if they're going to give ARGO best picture, then those people voting for it will also give it something else like screenplay and editing.
January 15, 2013 at 1:35AM ESTGlennAU One would have to assume that if they're going to give ARGO best picture, then those people voting for it will also give it something else like screenplay and editing.
January 15, 2013 at 1:35AM ESTDylanS I'm starting to think "Argo" is not strong enough throughout the categories for a win. Picture, director and Editing are a slim total, but without the chance at director, those 2 awards would seem to little. I doubt Arkin could win, I think Screenplay is between Kushner and Rusell, and I'm not sold on the sound categories either. I don't think it will reflect in the guilds (except for SAG ensemble), but it's gotta be "Lincoln"
January 15, 2013 at 8:20PM ESTPatrick
January 14, 2013 at 4:13PM EST Reply to CommentI doubt Affleck was snubbed for being an actor-turned-director. Sure Ron Howard was snubbed. But that same year, Mel Gibson won and Tim Robbins also managed to get a surprising director nod, both of whom were also actors-turned-directors, no?
Kristopher Tapley It's true. This is just a theory I've heard floated.
January 14, 2013 at 4:16PM ESTPatrick One more thing, Ron Howard (Apollo 13) and Steven Spielberg (The Color Purple) were the 2 biggest director snubs from the Oscars. As a result, the DGA decided to reward them both (the only 2 times that the DGA winner was not nominated for the Oscar).
January 14, 2013 at 4:47PM ESTBut then what happened at the Oscars? Those DGA wins were deemed enough, and neither won Best Picture.
/3rt Rob Reiner never received a director nomination or a nomination at all.
January 14, 2013 at 5:01PM ESTKristopher Tapley True, Patrick. If anything, this rush of awards and a potential DGA win could be seen as plenty of reward. "Lincoln" is still the odds-on favorite.
January 14, 2013 at 5:13PM ESTcarbo25
January 14, 2013 at 4:13PM EST Reply to CommentI thought your favorite was Django Unchained? You ranked it higher on your top 10
carbo25 favorite of the nominees, I mean
January 14, 2013 at 4:15PM ESTKristopher Tapley Funny. I keep forgetting it managed the nod. So yes.
January 14, 2013 at 4:17PM ESTJoseph
January 14, 2013 at 4:24PM EST Reply to CommentI think Affleck (and Bigelow) missed because people put passion movies like Amour and Beasts in higher priority so that they would land nominations. These people probably didn't think Affleck and Bigelow would actually miss out altogether! I'm with you Kris on Team Argo. Zeitlin winning director would nice recognition. Riva winning for Amour would be wonderful (or Chastain) but Silver Linings has to win somewhere I guess? Lincoln can have actor and screenplay. Pi can have score, visuals and cinematography.
Geert
January 14, 2013 at 4:25PM EST Reply to CommentI agree that Affleck's story is inspiring, and I agree that there should be more movies like Argo. But I don't see the relation between those two arguments and your plea to give Argo the Oscar for Best Picture.
I wish there were more movies made like Skyfall, End of Watch, Looper or Moonrise Kingdom, but I still don't think any of them deserve to win the Best Picture Oscar. And there are many other people with inspiring life stories, Michael Haneke, Steven Spielberg, and David O. Russell among them. And the stories of Ben Affleck, Paul Thomas Anderson and Kathryn Bigelow are still very impressive, with or without an Oscarnomination.
(And some people's life story will always be uninspiring, no matter how many Oscars they will win. Ahum Tom ahum Hooper ahum.)
Kristopher Tapley An Oscar is an Oscar. Quality is subjective. So there certainly shouldn't be a correlation made between quality and Oscar. On that playing field, I say this: Who would it make me happy to see take that stage? This year, it's Affleck.
January 14, 2013 at 4:32PM ESTJordan
January 14, 2013 at 4:36PM EST Reply to CommentNice article, Kris. I've been following your love for Affleck on Twitter and have resigned myself to see you champion it throughout the rest of the season. Sasha has Lincoln, Wells has SLP, now you have Argo. I guess I just wish we could have someone be objective, but I understand that personal biases get in the way.
I personally don't want to see Argo win because it is such a Hollywood-ized film. It's a well told story, but there's nothing unique in its approach. That's why I was happy to see Haneke and Zeitlin get in over Affleck. They brought their own unique voices to the film. Affleck has yet to uncover a distinctive, auterist style.
Again, I just feel like it's a little to mainstream for me to root for it over gutsy films like Lincoln and Beasts. And basically it's like people are saying it should win because they feel bad for Affleck. Like, "Poor Affleck. He was so unsure of himself when he got snubbed. We need to give him this to make him feel better." It should be about the film's merits, not who has the "most inspiring story."
But who knows what'll happen. It's been a crazy season and fun to follow for sure.
Bryan Objectivity doesn't exist in Oscar races, it never has. It's unfortunate because I think all the BP Nominees are at least good with the possible exception of Les Miserables (though it's no EL&IC, at least). I mean, 'Can't we all just get along?'
January 14, 2013 at 4:44PM ESTKristopher Tapley This column will be the last of it from me. I think my record is clear that I cover the race objectively and personal biases don't get in the way. I want "Argo" to win. I'm predicting "Lincoln." So...
January 14, 2013 at 4:49PM ESTWe all have horses we pull for. Anyone who doesn't would be a robot.
Chatty Kathy Why dont' you actually SEE the film before you criticize and judge? Your comment reminds me of the skit at the show last night..where the presenters PRETENDED to have seen the films.
January 14, 2013 at 6:10PM ESTJordan True, Kris. Out of all the pundits, you and Anne are the least biased. I'm predicting Lincoln as well. At least for now.
January 14, 2013 at 7:13PM ESTAnd Kathy, I have seen all the films. Sorry to disappoint you.
hipster
January 14, 2013 at 4:42PM EST Reply to CommentIt's a good point some commenters are making about Best Picture might be Argo's only Oscar win.. and I think that's absolutely amusing and fantastic.
In regards to 'Life of Pi', it's reminding me so much of how 'Hugo' played out last year. Dominating the technical awards just enough to make people nervous during the last hour of the Oscar telecast.
I'm actually rooting for the guilds to make things even less clear so it'd really be a good when it comes to the Superbowl. Here's to Affleck/Bigelow for DGA! Les Mis for PGA (oh dear god, no... please no)!
a
January 14, 2013 at 4:43PM EST Reply to CommentUnconvincing. Giving Best Picture based on that criteria is a heck of leg up. If people voted objectively then there wouldn't be this issue in a first place.
And, come on, this is Spielberg's ninth Best Picture nominee. The idea is that he is somehow uber-recognized, in light of greater win tallies is ridiculous. Tintin alone runs circles, directorially speaking, around most Best Director winners.
Kristopher Tapley "If people voted objectively then there wouldn't be this issue in a first place."
January 14, 2013 at 4:50PM ESTThere is no "objectively."
Me.
January 14, 2013 at 4:44PM EST Reply to CommentNo, I don't want more movies like "Argo", thank you very much. I found it to be denigrating towards the Iranians, shamelessly manipulative, and sensationalist. I like films that can allow me to think on the issues that are being presented. Especially when they are so complex. The whole "long live America/Canada" segment was so unnecessary, so shameless. Also, I find it kind of repulsive that they exaggerated the real events (in the airport scene particularly, when they showed the Iranians as being all paranoid/frightening/wild) for the sake of entertainment.
If there's any film that deserves to win (not that it will, mind you), it's "Amour". Now THAT's a film that avoids manipulation and that asks questions to the audience on the complex topics that it showcases.
I also loved the raw power and energy of "Beasts of the Southern Wild". It's a film about strength.
CaptainCanada They're not paranoid when they actually are trying to escape.
January 14, 2013 at 5:23PM ESTMoreover, I don't know why you would object to Iran's dictatorial soldiery being shown as "frightening", when the lives of the people in question were in jeopardy.
Me. "It’s not Canada’s involvement that has gotten the goat of some critics, though—it’s the pulse-pounding trip to the airport that serves as the movie’s climax. Affleck’s version involves every conceivable complication—each one of them, as it happens, invented purely to make the movie more exciting. (And it works! The finale is thrilling.) In the movie, the U.S. government reverses its approval of the plan at the last minute, meaning there may be no tickets waiting for the Americans when they arrive at the airport. In fact, the plane tickets were purchased ahead of time by the Canadians. Airport security guards stop the Americans in the film, leading to a tense and terrific scene in which one of the Americans makes the risky decision to speak Farsi with the guards, a daring move that pays off hugely. Actually, though, the trip through the airport was “smooth as silk,” as Mendez himself has written. Most improbably, the teams of carpet weavers that the Iranian government put to work repairing shredded documents (something they actually did!) piece together the face of one of the six Americans right as the group reaches the airport, and those carpet weavers relay the image to their higher-ups in time for armed men to chase down the departing airplane in a jeep and police cars. None of that happened."
January 14, 2013 at 5:52PM ESTSource: http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2012/10/12/argo_true_story_the_facts_and_fiction_behind_the_ben_affleck_movie.html
Kristopher Tapley Thanks, Me. We're all well aware.
January 14, 2013 at 6:05PM ESTCaptainCanada I knew that. What exactly is the big deal?
January 14, 2013 at 6:11PM ESTBlake
January 14, 2013 at 4:49PM EST Reply to CommentI just have trouble seeing Argo winning more than 3 awards: Picture, Film Editing, and Adapted Screenplay, and screenplay looks more likely to go to Lincoln or Silver Linings. Lincoln could win as many as 10. It won't win that many, but the only two categories where I think it has no shot is sound mixing and supporting actress.
If one film wins WGA and ACE, and picks up another major guild, that'll be your winner I think.
daveylo Argo is not going to win adapted screenplay. So it's going to win 2 awards? I guess it could happen.
January 14, 2013 at 6:35PM ESTAmericanRequiem I can't see kushner losing though, the guys a giant and highly respected amongst writers and its also the best script (IMO)
January 14, 2013 at 6:49PM ESTsomeperson @AMERICANREQUIEM: Respect among the writers gets you nominations. It's very possible the voting branch at large doesn't know about or care for Kushner. I still think Lincoln is winning screenplay, but not because of Kushner being respected by the writers.
January 14, 2013 at 11:27PM ESTMorpheos
January 14, 2013 at 5:30PM EST Reply to CommentThe reason Amour is nominated is because the Academy sees itself in that story. If it was anything close to about critical acclaim or thematical challenge A SEPARATION would've been nominated for most Oscars last year. It's not about the best film of the year, but about the best campaigned film of the year.
I'd dare say that Spielberg hasn't made a film even close to A SEPARATION in complexety in at least two decades , if ever. There is a reason the usual suspects get nominated almost whenever they have made any film.
Alvin
January 14, 2013 at 5:30PM EST Reply to CommentEven though film are a subjective experience and you can' talk about objective quality it still doesn't make much sense to vote or root for someone that isn't the one you think is best in any given category. That's one of the main problems of awards shows, that they award careers and likeability and not the best work in a category. People should be valued for the work they did, not their personal stories.
Kristopher Tapley It makes plenty of sense if you don't consider the Oscars to be an ultimate measure of something. I don't.
January 14, 2013 at 5:33PM ESTKristopher Tapley Put another way, ask me what film SHOULD win? I'd say "Django." Ask me what film I'd LIKE to see win? I'd say "Argo." I don't think that's so hard to grasp.
January 14, 2013 at 5:34PM ESTPaul Outlaw On that note, my two cents:
January 14, 2013 at 10:06PM ESTWhat should win - Amour (alt.: Lincoln, ZDT)
What I'd like to see win - all the same as above (fancy that)
What I think is likely to win - Argo (alt.: Lincoln, Life of Pi)
What shouldn't have been nominated - Django Unchained, Silver Linings Playbook
Again, just my two cents.
John So Kris, if you personally had an Oscar ballot would you vote for Django or Argo?
January 14, 2013 at 11:13PM ESTThe interesting thing to know would be how many Academy members vote for there favorite of the bunch (as I think they should), and how many vote for other factors being discussed.
To me, there is no difference between who "Should" win and who I'd "Like" to win. The Oscars should not be a lifetime achievement award or a popularity contest, etc. The award should go to whoever voters thought made the best film and gave the best performances. And that is clearly always be the reality, but it's the ideal to strive for.
In the short-term, I want to see some good acceptance speeches and have some shocking upsets to talk about after the ceremony. But when it's all over, it's far more important that the right person got the statue.
someperson Totally get where Kris is coming from on this. In 2010 my favorite film of the year was Black Swan, and it got a Best Picture nomination. However, Toy Story 3 also got a nomination, and even though I didn't like it as much, I would have preferred to see it win, because it would have meant the Academy acknowledging an animated films as capable of, and sometimes better, than their live-action counterparts. So while a win for Black Swan would have been rewarding my favorite film, rewarding Toy Story 3 would have been historic, which would be even better.
January 14, 2013 at 11:33PM ESTJames
January 14, 2013 at 5:56PM EST Reply to CommentAh I just wish I could see what so many others see in Silver Linings Playbook. There's honestly some bad writing in that flick. I like Lawrence as much as the next guy, but I think that's really becoming this deciding factor. A friend of mine has the biggest crush on her and he hopes it's the flick to win, feeling that Lincoln is a dry dud and didn't cover enough of his life. I love Spielberg's choice to follow only the last 4 months of Lincoln's life.
As for Argo, I hear ya. I want it to win. It probably wouldn't be on my top 10 and it's not my favorite of the nominees, but I do think it stands a shot and would be a solid winner imo. Affleck's earned it.
daveylo Silver Lining Playbook, I wish I got it, too. A few lovely moments, poor character development, visually boring, but an appealing cast. I guess I'd rather see Argo win that SLP. If Argo wins, I want Ang Lee to win director to make up for Scorsese losing last year for his visual masterpiece.
January 14, 2013 at 6:42PM ESTVoland "A few lovely moments, poor character development, visually boring, but an appealing cast."
January 15, 2013 at 1:04PM ESTAnd that description doesn't fit Argo as well?
B
January 14, 2013 at 6:09PM EST Reply to CommentI just can't see a film winning that doesn't get Best Director. I think Lincoln gets it or Silver Linings, if it gets the SAG ensemble.
daveylo What happens if Les Miz wins SAG ensemble? Then we're really in a mess.
January 14, 2013 at 6:43PM ESTAmericanRequiem I think if slp was really in it to win it it would have won actor comedy and best comedy at the globes, not a good sign...
January 14, 2013 at 6:52PM ESTVoland Why should that be troubling? It could have added buzz and momentum, but it doesn't hurt either. LM was always the favorite at the Globes. And the impressing 8 Oscar noms show, that the Academy's love for SLP outweighs other groups.
January 15, 2013 at 1:06PM ESTJJ1
January 14, 2013 at 6:48PM EST Reply to CommentArgo was well done. Good directing, decent performances, ok writing, nifty editing, good prod values, gripping ending (however phony).
I also like Affleck. All that said, I'd still rather a better film won at the Oscars. And to me, Lincoln is simply superb.
So if Argo wins, I'll be happy for Affleck and ill know that I enjoyed the film enough to be okay with it's win, but I'm thoroughly pulling for what I think is the better film which is Lincoln.
THE Diego Ortiz
January 14, 2013 at 7:37PM EST Reply to CommentI still need to see Argo but my sister has. She thought it was boring. Said the trailer was misleading. She thought it was gonna be an action movie.
loyal_mehnert
January 14, 2013 at 7:47PM EST Reply to CommentMy favorite film of the BP nominees is Django Unchained with Lincoln as a close second but I'm rooting for Spielberg to win BP and BD.
I am curious, for Argo to win Best Picture it presumably has to win other categories. Assuming Supporting Actor is off the table and the Sound categories are going elsewhere, that leaves Editing, Screenplay, and Score. I don't really see Argo having much of a shot besides Score, so I'm having trouble finding its path to Best Picture. Surely it won't win Best Picture and just Score.
Kane
January 14, 2013 at 8:01PM EST Reply to CommentHowever, Mel Gibson was an actor turned director when he won for Braveheart. It's a little tough comparing this year with 1995, especially when Ben Affleck could be compared to Mel Gibson more so than Ron Howard, and I'm not referring to the way he directs, more of his looks and as an underdog.
Kane Whoops sorry, Kris. Just realized this was addressed before.
January 14, 2013 at 8:07PM ESTThe Dude
January 14, 2013 at 9:16PM EST Reply to CommentCall me crazy, but if I think there's better movies in the race, I want the better movies to win...
Chris138
January 14, 2013 at 9:41PM EST Reply to CommentI love Silver Linings Playbook but I never saw it as a director's showcase the way Zero Dark Thirty or even Argo is. If anything it's an actor and writer showcase. I have no idea how the Academy felt Russell did a better job directing than Bigelow. I'm not a lover of Argo but that is also a more impressive directorial effort, in my opinion.
JLPatt Yeah, because those four nominated performances (as well as the rest of the great cast) all just happened by themselves.
January 15, 2013 at 12:25AM ESTDirecting is SO much more than just making big, "showcase-y" movies.
Chris138 I saw this quote from an anonymous member of the Academy's director branch and it brought me back here:
February 20, 2013 at 11:07PM EST"Silver Linings is a screenplay; the direction is not particularly important -- although it took David O. Russell to figure out that Bradley Cooper is a great actor."
That pretty much sums up how I feel about it. Yes, obviously there was direction in the performances, but overall I don't think it holds a candle to something like Zero Dark Thirty in terms of direction.
That's all.
Joe W
January 14, 2013 at 10:05PM EST Reply to CommentIt's a bit of bummer watching Affleck pick up these directing prizes knowing it won't translate to an Oscar win for him. If he'd been nominated, my money would be on him and the movie taking Picture/Director. Now I have no idea. "Lincoln" looks like the favorite on paper, but does the Academy really want to reward Spielberg again just yet? I loved "Lincoln" but it doesn't quite hit the heights of "Schindler" or "Private Ryan". "Life of Pi" looks to be in 2nd, but Ang won already relatively recently. Could this be David O. Russell's year? It has widespread appeal across the board from the actors, and that's the biggest voting block.
Maybe the DGA will illuminate things, unless Affleck takes that as well (which I think he will).
So many great movies. So many possible winners. What a season.
MJS
January 14, 2013 at 11:10PM EST Reply to CommentI think the director's branch was largely punishing Affleck because, while he does solid work, he isn't really much of an auteur. There's a mercenary quality to his direction that just can't compete with the likes of Spielberg, Lee, Haneke, Zeitlin and even Russell (who could all be called "visionaries" by a studio marketing department). In many ways it just feels like Affleck is producing and directing movies like Argo so he can give himself interesting roles.
If he wasn't an A-list celebrity I doubt anyone would have thought this was some kind of surprising "snub," in fact I doubt he was even in sixth place given that Bigelow wasn't among the nominated directors. Hell, I wouldn't have been too shocked if he was also behind Tarentino and maybe even Hooper in the vote tally.
As for the notion that Argo should win in order to encourage Hollywood to make more mid-budget dramas... isn't the film's box office success enough to do that? Besides, since when is it unusual for middlebrow thrillers to win Oscars?
CaptainCanada People would have found it a surprising "snub" regardless of whether he was a famous actor. A director who directs one of the most acclaimed movies and wins a ton of critics' awards for it, enough to be considered a lock for pretty much the entire season, will be considered snubbed when left off. Same with Bigelow.
January 14, 2013 at 11:39PM ESTJLPatt Oh dear, the auteur argument. Ugh.
January 15, 2013 at 12:27AM ESTFrankieJ
January 15, 2013 at 2:47AM EST Reply to CommentGood piece and I wouldn't be sad if ARGO wins. And while that "leg up" you feel ARGO deserves is all fine and good, it should be great filmmaking that is honored...if that actually happens: ZERO DARK will triumph.
Kristopher Tapley Argo is great filmmaking to plenty. Zero Dark fails in the eyes of many. Again, subjectivity.
January 15, 2013 at 2:48PM ESTFrank J. Avella well, it's all ultimately subjective. There's no way one can be objective writing about the Oscars because our loves/disloves will always seep in. I spoke to that in my newyorkcool.com end of year column. It's best to embrace and acknowledge our prejudices and make them a part of the coverage. That's what I believe. Oh, and simply based on all the coverage on ZERO DARK I've read, I think saying it fails in the eyes of "many" might be misleading. It is one of the best reviewed films of the year. So even that is hinged with subjectivity--we can't escape it.
January 15, 2013 at 5:07PM ESTKristopher Tapley Not misleading of all. The opinions in print aren't the only ones in existence.
January 15, 2013 at 11:02PM ESTFrank J. Avella I am very well aware of that (thanks for the condescension). Proving my point, though, about how subjectivity is impossible--your "many" is my "few" depending on who we read, who we listen to and who we decide to cite--and that's all about which films we loved and didn't quite love. ZERO DARK fails in your eyes. In mine it succeeds and I believe (again, subjective) will be remembered by "many" as one of the most significant and best cinematic achievements of the new millennium (is it still new?)
January 17, 2013 at 1:56AM ESTTania
January 15, 2013 at 9:54AM EST Reply to CommentNo, Lincoln, no, please, it's boring!. I hope Argo wins or Zero Dark Thirty
Emmanuel
January 15, 2013 at 12:31PM EST Reply to CommentYour sense of values here is completely twisted.
According to your article, Affleck is no longer a "joke". What you are really implying by that is, he's now making the kind of films that make him "respectable" ( the real question is "for who ?" ), the films the academy and the critics want him to make. In other words, Affleck is playing the game people of the system encourage him to play. The academy awarding him would be something logical, I don't have any problem with that actually. But you are also saying, engaging you as a person, that this behavior should be rewarded and congratulated even outside of the academy. That, somehow, seeing someone making real hard efforts to submit himself to a system in order to be accepted and highly regarded in it should be something to celebrate. Not only that, but you'd like him to succeed in this honorable endeavor of his. Because "he's earned it" like you said. Like there is something to be proud of in all this. Whereas, I think, but that's just me, the only thing to be proud of in cinema is toa make great films, which Affleck is clearly not doing at the moment.
I just throwed up a little bit, reading your article. And then, I say when am I so surprised, when in our society, merit is a notion completely diverted from its virtue ?
Voland Exactly.
January 15, 2013 at 1:55PM ESTAffleck seems to benefit immensily from his rather weak acting career, which put him in a position, so that his mediocre directing achievements are completely overvalued in comparison to similar or better achievements.
And what's with all the people (f.e. Clooney) begging sympathy for Affleck, because he got out of "acting jail"? He earned millions and lived a life, most of us can only dream of, and that all despite his very poor acting skills. He was responsible for all the amounts of justified criticism. That he still had this kind of acting career he had, is not something that shouldn't be celebrated, but questioned.
Voland *should be celebrated
January 15, 2013 at 1:56PM ESTKristopher Tapley "Throwed" up?
January 15, 2013 at 2:49PM ESTKristopher Tapley Oh, and:
January 15, 2013 at 2:52PM EST"...the only thing to be proud of in cinema is toa [sic] make great films, which Affleck is clearly not doing at the moment."
Well, "clearly" the majority of critics awards and 15,000 DGA members, among countless other people, disagree with that.
Your Worst Nightmare
January 16, 2013 at 12:08AM EST Reply to CommentSo Argo should win because it would make a great story? Isn't that what happened with Crash? And film schools are studying that right now aren't they Tapley!? How did you get this job? You're a hack.
Edwin Jesus. Calm down. Besides, you're being really naive if you think most members of the Academy care about what will be studied in film schools years from now. The Oscars are INDUSTRY prizes, not critic prizes, cinephile prizes, or film historian prizes. They're more concerned with making a good story for the present moment than trying to predict how history will view a film. And you know what? People need to get over it. There are plenty of other awards that adhere much more to the sort of cinephile mentality that you seem to be demanding of a group of people who really just want to show their appreciation for their peers. That's how you should view the Oscars, because that's what they're for.
January 16, 2013 at 1:21AM ESTGod forbid people who write about the Oscars should ever want someone to win because they'd simply be happy for them. Stop taking it so seriously. It's not like giving an Oscar to a movie is going to require that all film students study it in courses at the expense of other films that did not win Oscars. I'm pretty sure Kris knows more about the Oscar process than you do, and therefore is far from a hack. I mean, you're just someone who visits another person's blog to personally attack them while not even having the balls to use an actual name. Grow up.
Kevin Well Edwin you must have balls because you used your real name! I think? Nice criticism there loser.
January 16, 2013 at 2:40AM ESTAnd you would know a lot about balls wouldn't you? I mean, apparently you've been sucking Tapley's in the past. Get a life. The Oscars should not be a popularity contest is what I am stating. You are right though, I can make up my own judgments about which films are the best in a year. Thanks, now go suck some more balls douchebag.
franklin
January 16, 2013 at 3:26AM EST Reply to CommentI enjoyed Argo, but the movie and Ben Affleck's direction is not Oscar worthy. Affleck's direction cannot touch the work of Michael Haneke, Ben Zeitlin, Ang Lee, nor Spielberg. Also, Argo should have been more moving, more suspenseful, more complex, more provocative, and more compelling. But, the film only handled these issues decently ( and sometimes with mediocrity) , and the movie was very simplistic with the approach to it's subject matter.
Argo may wind up winning the Best Picture Oscar, because Ben Affleck's film was produced by George " Mr. Hollywood " Clooney , Ben is loved by A-list Hollywood, the box-office success is a major comeback story for Ben, and all the major headlines pointed to the lack of Affleck directing nomination. This is all going to give him sympathy votes for the Best Picture win. I agree with some of the comments that he is being given a free pass because he is a likable actor turned director; instead of, being graded fairly with the other directors that received Oscar nominations. Hollywood is all about associations and connections, and Ben has them big time.
leduffpascal
January 16, 2013 at 9:13AM EST Reply to CommentI am not know a huge fan of ARGO but I really believe it will win on Oscar Night ( although I share your three favorite picks, fingers crossed for original screenplay, for AMOUR or DJANGO, both would be fine ). Which also means adapted screenplay + editing ( + music maybe ? )
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