Cannes Film Festival 2013

Off the Carpet: The long, strange trip of 'Argo'

Charting the rise, fall, rise and fall of this year's likely Best Picture victor

<p>"Argo"</p>

"Argo"

Credit: Warner Bros. Pictures

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The epic journey of Ben Affleck's "Argo" began at the Telluride Film Festival in September. After a couple of years of pandering a bit by accepting Toronto-bound Oscar bait in the form of films like "Black Swan," "The Descendants" and "127 Hours," and then bizarrely bemoaning the surge in awards coverage they yielded, the festival's directors pulled back over the last two years, retreating to their former identity of carefully curating selections from international festivals. But they nevertheless left room for one "Sneak Preview" on the line-up this time around, and that film was "Argo."

The film blew the roof off at its first screening there for patrons of the festival and attending press. A burst of applause hit at the film's oft-discussed airport climax and the stage was set for an Oscar thoroughbred to find its way through the season. But there were still six whole months in the season left to go. And no one wants to be a frontrunner too early for too long.

Soon enough, another film would join the conversation, as David O. Russell's "Silver Linings Playbook" debuted at the Toronto Film Festival and delighted audiences there. But "Argo" still had plenty to offer as it had its "official" premiere at the fest, duking it out with Russell's film for the coveted Audience Award.

"Argo" would ultimately yield that prize to Harvey Weinstein's primped and prepared contender, and it would also weather its first dose of controversy. Canadians weren't pleased with perceived insinuations that their government's hand in what was, after all, called "The Canadian Caper" was more superficial than the history had suggested. Affleck and Warner Bros. handled it swiftly and gracefully, adding a card at the end of the film for clarification, and the dust-up stretched no further than the Toronto city limits.

Lucky for "Argo" and "Silver Linings Playbook," Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln" still had the onus of Oscar heavy. Sight-unseen, the film was an on-paper sure thing. Films like "Anna Karenina," "The Master" and "Cloud Atlas" played at the fest but were quickly regarded as uphill battles for Oscar. The sense was that we hadn't seen our Best Picture winner yet and, again, there was so much more around the corner.

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The next stop of the season was the New York Film Festival. Ang Lee's "Life of Pi" would become an instant player as the opening night film, a visual wonder from a respected filmmaker. But ahead of its "official" AFI Fest bow, "Lincoln" would pop up as a surprise screening at the fest like "Hugo" last year. Finally gracing the season with its presence, it was a long breath of a film, a studied consideration of the 16th President's struggle to pass the 13th Amendment abolishing slavery. It wasn't the expected Spielberg. It was contained. Indeed, the reserve even stretched to the work of composer John Williams. But while the sight-unseen frontrunner had finally landed, few were ready to concede it the victory just yet, even if a boatload of nominations were surely expected.

There were still more films to come, and after the Thanksgiving holiday, they would hit the ground running. "Les Misérables" was the first to come out of hiding, premiering to a New York audience full of guild and Academy members. And it couldn't have played better: applause throughout, crying, rave responses. One would be forgiven for thinking we had a Best Picture frontrunner on our hands, particularly with such a given as the Best Supporting Actress winner appearing clear as day. Further screenings on the west coast would begin to add nuance to the overall reaction as a great many critics, foreshadowing the overall critical reception to the film, took umbrage with the film's aesthetic. Nevertheless, the Broadway adaptation had more than its fair share of fans in the industry and was poised to be a big Oscar player.

"Les Mis" would have its moment for a time, but then Kathryn Bigelow's "Zero Dark Thirty" would steal its thunder and really make an impact. Seemingly starving for something this heady after the gooey "Les Misérables," the critics took to it like red meat. The film landed the weekend after "Les Mis" did and seemed to kill two birds with one stone: It presented itself as a drier, more journalistically minded and therefore "more important" CIA thriller alternative to "Argo" and, via star Jessica Chastain, muscled (for a time) Jennifer Lawrence out of frontrunner spot for Best Actress she had held since "Silver Linings Playbook" hit Toronto over two months prior. It seemed like it could be an awards juggernaut, but would it be too cold and distanced for Academy members to embrace it?

Whether it would or wouldn't, the first batch of precursor groups were enamored with their shiny new play thing. The New York Film Critics Circle and National Board of Review crowned it the year's best as December rolled around, thought the Los Angeles Film Critics Association would stick up for (somewhat futilely) "The Master" and (as perhaps a saving grace) "Amour." But controversy was awaiting Kathryn Bigelow's film, and particularly, Mark Boal's journalistic efforts behind it.

Senators in Washington, in a bold, unprecedented move, not only took the film to task for what they viewed as a pro-torture argument, but instructed the filmmakers to alter content they felt indicated that key information in the hunt for Osama Bin Laden was directly obtained via torture, or, "enhanced interrogation" techniques. Whether "Zero Dark Thirty" could have survived the season en route to a Best Picture win without this controversy is up for debate. But it was very late in gearing up a proper awards campaign and it was wholly unprepared to deal with the nuance lost in the debate. Damage was surely done, but the level to which that damage truly mattered to the opinions of artists is, again, debatable.

As more and more regional critics groups began to speak up, the scales shifted. But they didn't shift to "Life of Pi" or "Lincoln" or the other films that had shown up in the interim since the Telluride Film Festival. They shifted to the one film seemingly elbowed out of the way by all of the season's comers. They shifted to "Argo." And they would stay there, though not without a scare.

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Kristopher-tapley-sm
Kristopher Tapley
Editor-at-Large
Kristopher Tapley has covered the film awards landscape for over a decade. He founded In Contention in 2005. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Times of London and Variety. He begs you not to take any of this too seriously.

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  • Default-avatar

    Jacob S.

    Why don't you think Spielberg will win director?

    February 18, 2013 at 6:00PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      JJ1 Seconded

      February 18, 2013 at 9:28PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      The Dude I don't know about him, but to me they either loved Lincoln enough to give it Best Picture or they didn't care enough to give Spielberg best director. I don't see a lot of people voting Argo/Spielberg.

      Meanwhile, I can see Lee getting votes from pretty much anyone. And I also don't see people that vote in Life of Pi not giving him best director.

      February 18, 2013 at 9:57PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      JJ1 Pretty good reasoning

      February 18, 2013 at 10:09PM EST
    • Krispic3_talkback_profile

      Kristopher Tapley For the very same reasons I mentioned in the podcast. A lot of extrapolating going on based on nods. No indication, ever, that the Academy loved it enough to give it Oscars outside of Day-Lewis and maybe Jones. And I agree with The Dude's split reasoning, too.

      February 19, 2013 at 1:09PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Manuel L.

    I love this site and I come here often, but I almost never comment.
    Well I think this is an excellent piece, it sums up everything we love about the Oscar season, especially this year with Argo's peculiar story. If anybody in a few years wants a clear, concise and smart recap of the 2012 Oscar season, this is it.
    Still hoping we will have a major surprise in Best Picture Sunday night, but it seems really unlikely...

    February 18, 2013 at 6:17PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Krispic3_talkback_profile

      Kristopher Tapley Thanks for that, Manuel.

      February 18, 2013 at 6:37PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Hans

    Sticking to your guns on Wreck-It Ralph, I see. I think I'm going to end up predicting Brave, but I hope to be delightfully wrong.

    February 18, 2013 at 6:51PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Hans

    Sticking to your guns on Wreck-It Ralph, I see. I think I'm going to end up predicting Brave, but I hope to be delightfully wrong.

    February 18, 2013 at 6:51PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Hal_9000_talkback_profile

    DylanS

    "No film has been this dominant on the guild circuit and lost the prize, while, again, only three other films have won Best Picture without a corresponding Best Director nomination."

    This is true, and this is why this season has been interesting and unique. But once again, this is a season in which the Best Picture winner appears to be a foregone conclusion. It would be nice to have an Oscar season where a few different films are winning at different guilds and are on a somewhat equal playing field on Oscar night for a change as opposed to this groupthink mentality.

    February 18, 2013 at 6:53PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      Edward L. I agree. The last time it was like that was the 2006 race, when, going into Oscar night, all five Best Picture nominees had won big awards, and all of them (except, perhaps, The Queen) felt like legitimate contenders for the Best Picture prize.

      That said, the weirdness of Argo's position in the nominee field makes this year exciting for me anyway. As Kris said, it will make history either way. And Oscar night has some built-in surprises waiting to happen. I mean, when was the last time we simply couldn't gauge who would win Director?

      February 18, 2013 at 8:32PM EST
  • Dsc00002_talkback_profile

    loyal_mehnert

    I'm still hoping for a Best Picture upset.

    February 18, 2013 at 7:51PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      Paul Outlaw Amour? Pi?

      February 18, 2013 at 8:04PM EST
    • Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook but I'm not picky at this point. ABA for this Sunday (Anything But Argo).

      February 18, 2013 at 8:29PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      Paul Outlaw I named the other (less likely?) two, because as Kris' excellent article highlights, this season, as changeable as it has been, has not been about cream rising to the top, but the triumph of workmanlike American mainstream filmmaking. Anything controversial. innovative or (God forbid) "artistic" has fallen by the wayside, leaving us with the perfectly pleasant Argo and Silver Linings Playbook as the ones at the head of the pack.

      February 18, 2013 at 9:01PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    SamuelM

    Great piece, Kris. That last paragraph is very insightful in that, when you really consider the full picture, this remains a very competitive and exciting year for the Oscars. Best Pic may be sewn up (it's nowhere near the lock the previous couple of winners have been, though), but across the board the races are interesting.
    I, for one, will be happy to see Argo win. Even though it could be argued it's not truly the best of 2012, it will still stand as the best BP winner since The Hurt Locker, maybe since No Country for Old Men.
    Anyway, great piece and I look forward to seeing your final predictions.

    February 18, 2013 at 8:29PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      JLPatt Best BP winner since... well, "The Artist." Which was the best winner since "Slumdog."

      February 18, 2013 at 10:38PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      JLPatt Best BP winner since... well, "The Artist." Which was the best winner since "Slumdog."

      February 18, 2013 at 10:38PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    carbo25

    Black Swan was Oscar-bait? :S

    February 18, 2013 at 9:09PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Krispic3_talkback_profile

      Kristopher Tapley Ended up being. :) I guess I mean awards hopefuls more so than "Oscar bait." Bad adjective.

      February 18, 2013 at 9:14PM EST
    • Hal_9000_talkback_profile

      DylanS I still often have to remind myself that "Black Swan" did really well at the box office. I love the movie, but that has to be the most unlikely big audience film of its generation.

      February 18, 2013 at 11:25PM EST
  • Default-avatar

    RichardZ

    Great writing--it felt like a thriller.

    February 18, 2013 at 9:45PM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    The Dude

    I agree with nearly all your predictions, except for De Niro, which I see some people predicting, but frankly, I don't see how it can happen: if he hasn't won the SAG for the FIRST time, why would he win an Oscar for the third?

    SLP is a movie that can't win anything with heavy actors support, and De Niro losing there even without Waltz (due to lack of screeners) in the race indicates he doesn't have a serious shot, IMO.

    Even more than Harvey's other (or one of the others) horse has BAFTA and GG, and his SNL appearance can't have hurt.

    February 18, 2013 at 9:53PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Default-avatar

      Hans Doesn't look like SAG will be a huge bellwether this year. First they only match Oscar 14/20, the lowest that I can recall, and now we have two potential winners (Riva and Waltz) who weren't even nominated, something only Marcia Gay Harden has pulled off.

      February 18, 2013 at 10:10PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      JJ1 Very good points.

      February 18, 2013 at 10:11PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      The Dude Waltz missed because Django didn't get screeners in time, so he was ineligible in practical terms.

      Riva missed because her movie was never going to get enough people viewing anyway.

      So, the fact that De Niro couldn't win in a field that doesn't have Waltz, with the most actor-friendly movie, in a place where he NEVER won, just tells me he doesn't have the strength to pull it off.

      And don't forget he missed the BAFTAs too, when was the last time an eligible actor that missed it won the Oscars?

      February 19, 2013 at 12:12AM EST
    • Krispic3_talkback_profile

      Kristopher Tapley De Niro stuff is all about him putting in the effort at a crucial time. Which, by the way, was after SAGs. Different time frame. He's right in there.

      February 19, 2013 at 12:43AM EST
    • Default-avatar

      The Dude So, because he appeared on TV and did interviews? Wouldn't George Clooney win every year? And Bradley Cooper or Hugh Jackman beat DDL? Riva would have zero chances then.

      If all it takes after 15 years (or more) of sleepwalking is a decent performance and do a couple of interviews, then the Academy is even sillier than I thought.

      February 19, 2013 at 1:02AM EST
    • Krispic3_talkback_profile

      Kristopher Tapley Silver Linings went all out in phase two and it had an impact.

      February 19, 2013 at 2:03AM EST
  • Default-avatar

    John G.

    Off topic: I'd seen much of Silence of the Lambs before, but I just caught it start-to-finish for the first time. How in god's name did that movie win Best Picture? It's a great thriller, but I can't imagine the Academy we know and love wanting to reward it. Anyone remember the year well enough to shed some light?

    February 18, 2013 at 11:08PM EST Reply to Comment
    • Image_grayfox_aud_talkback_profile

      crossie Well, I was all of seven or eight that year, so I really have no idea, but that was the year "Beauty and the Beast" became the first animated Best Picture nominee, so I assume it was just a bad year for the normal Oscar fare.

      February 18, 2013 at 11:50PM EST
    • Default-avatar

      The Dude Sometimes a movie it's just too good and successful to ignore.

      Plus, while I was too young to follow it at that time, seems that JFK was too controversial, Beauty and the Beast too animated, Bugsy too generic and Prince of the Tides...I don't know, too Streisand? I have never watched it.

      February 19, 2013 at 12:18AM EST
    • Krispic3_talkback_profile

      Kristopher Tapley JFK blows EVERYTHING out of the water that year. Never understood the Silence vote. At all.

      February 19, 2013 at 12:44AM EST
    • Default-avatar

      Vince Smetana "How in god's name did that movie win Best Picture?" Because it's one of the best films of all time. One of the few instances the Oscars got right.

      JFK was a hot mess and did not age well.

      Sorry.

      It would have been a real race if the three films bubbling right underneath (Thelma & Louise, T2, and Boyz N the Hood) had been nominated.

      February 19, 2013 at 1:40AM EST
    • Krispic3_talkback_profile

      Kristopher Tapley Psh, speak for yourself. JFK gets better over time. Expert craft on display. Expert.

      February 19, 2013 at 2:04AM EST
    • Default-avatar

      Vince Smetana I am speaking for myself. ;)

      And, yes, JFK was expert ... expert in taking perhaps genuine conspiracy theory to ludicrous levels of grandeur. Lambs shrewdly managed to be as campy as it was simultaneously earnest, able to function on two totally different planes. JFK took a national tragedy and dressed it up in drag wrapped inside of more drag. Tacky, tacky.

      February 19, 2013 at 2:13AM EST
    • Default-avatar

      Frank j. Avella JFK is one of the greatest cinematic achievements of the last 30 years. Period.

      February 19, 2013 at 5:55AM EST
    • Default-avatar

      Miguel 1991 was the first year I remeber following the Oscars.

      JFK was directed by Oliver Stone, but he had already won twice in the last 6 years. Beauty and the Beast was a surprise nominee. The Prince of Tides was too Streisand and it missed a director nod. It’s best shot was Nolte for best actor. Bugsy led the nominations and had Warren Beatty factor. It was the big favourite…. Until the DGA announced Jonathan Demme as best director. At the time, only three times DGA and Oscar made different choices

      Silence of the Lambs had opened a year before the Oscars. Jodie Foster was it’s best shot of winning anything. When Demme won the DGA everything change, but what really sealed it’s victory was when Hopkins won best actor. After they announced that category, it was unstoppable.

      February 19, 2013 at 10:11AM EST
  • Default-avatar

    Dominik

    Excellent analysis, Kris!
    I share your opinion on this being a pretty intresting year Awards-wise. While I suppose Best Picture is a done deal for "Argo" (and Day-Lewis will surely win Best Actor), most of the other main categories are really suspenseful and leave me a bit puzzled. For excample Best Actress: Normally you would think that Lawrence should win this based on the fact that she´s a hot young actress in a spicy role - and in a film that is well beloved and probably not really going to win something beside Best Actress. On the other hand, maybe Emmanuelle Riva gets the "veteran vote" (if something like this still exist) in an artsy movie that would make the Academy look smart if they honor it somewhere beside Foreign Language?
    Without that ZDT-controvery, I would give Jessica Chastain also a good chance to surprise, but I´m sceptical now.
    And I agree with one comment above: Looks more logical to assume that Spielberg won´t win Best Director, because most people - me included - seem to be a bit cold about that "long breath" "Lincoln". Ang Lee, better prepare for your speech!

    February 19, 2013 at 3:59AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    HoustonRufus

    Very well stated. I can't say it's been as exciting for me, but your case for Argo and its triumphant season is convincing. It's certainly been a more compelling awards season than last year, and not just in the Best Pic race, but in the other categories as well.

    February 19, 2013 at 11:18AM EST Reply to Comment
  • Default-avatar

    Brian W.

    Thank you for finding a way to sum up this entire awards season in just a few hundred words. This is the article we should point to if we're looking for a concise history lesson of the 2013 Oscars years down the line. Awesome job Kris.

    February 19, 2013 at 3:18PM EST Reply to Comment

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2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS

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Best Picture

Best Director

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Adapted Screenplay

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Best Cinematography

Best Costume Design

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Best Original Score

Best Original Song

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Best Animated Feature Film

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