Off the Carpet: Telluride wraps, Toronto approaches
What will the upcoming Canada marathon have in store for the season?
Emmanuel Riva in "Amour"
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The season is here. "Argo" has sounded the starting gun in the mountains of Telluride while "The Master" has made a strong case on the Lido of Venice. Where will we go from here?
The upcoming Toronto Film Festival will bring a number of possibilities. The Weinstein Company has a few threads dangling, and in typical fashion, will see what sticks to the wall.
"The Sapphires" played well at Telluride after having already pleased crowds in Cannes, but it's likely to move to next year. "Silver Linings Playbook" will get its close-up next, with "Quartet" and "Song for Marion" as lingering possibilities besides. And before long, the moneymaker: "Django Unchained." But at the fest next week, we could see the beginning of an Oscar march for Robert De Niro and some serious consideration for Terrence Stamp, Maggie Smith, Pauline Collins, etc. We'll just have to see what sticks.
Warner Bros. will ride the "Argo" high from Colorado to Canada and likely won't miss a beat, but there will also be "Cloud Atlas" to consider. It's an interesting situation and "it's not for everyone" seems to be the constant meme from those close to it, but the word will be out soon enough.
Focus will try "Hyde Park on Hudson" in front of a new audience after not really lighting up Telluride (despite Bill Murray's typically cute antics around town), but there will also be a lot of attention paid to "Anna Karenina." The film is set to open in the UK next week (Guy's review here). As if the trailer couldn't have clued you in, it seems to be a definite contender in design categories, with outside shots at this and that elsewhere. We'll see if his view of the film is shared up north.
Summit Entertainment has two great offerings in "The Impossible" and "The Perks of Being a Wallflower." The former in particular could emerge as a significant threat in the Best Picture race with Naomi Watts joining the Best Actress conversation in stride. Fox Searchlight, meanwhile, will bring "The Sessions" to TIFF looking to continue the goodwill received eight months ago in Sundance. John Hawkes is sure to get even more glowing notices for his work in the film. And will they look to continue the Terrence Malick relationship and acquire "To the Wonder" after decent enough notices in Venice? (Guy's review here.)
Speaking of which, there are other films still for sale, whether it's "The Place Beyond the Pines," "Great Expectations," "Frances Ha" (which played very well in Telluride) and "Imogene," among others. Will buyers looking to fill awards season gaps bite? Or will conservative studios pocket some of these for next year?
Which brings me to Sony Pictures Classics. Michael Barker and Tom Bernard came to Telluride this year with a typically heavy slate of films, but only two of them -- "Amour" and "Rust & Bone" -- will be 2012 releases. "At Any Price," "The Gatekeepers," "No" and the recently acquired "The Company You Keep" (which didn't play Telluride but will play Toronto) have all officially been set for next year, though things could change on "The Gatekeepers" once the documentary feature category is sussed out.
Barker told me during the fest that he has high expectations for "Amour" at the Oscars, mentioning it in the same breath as "Cries & Whispers." Indeed, it would appear Michael Haneke's Palme d'Or winner is in the best position to make a run for it out of the SPC stable. And it continued to play well to festival audiences in Telluride. It was frequently discussed and seemed to be one of the highlights for most.
That ought to do enough to explain some choices we've made in running a quick comb through the Contenders section this week. It is, as always, a shifting landscape. And in two weeks, with Toronto in the rear view and New York on the horizon, we'll have an even clearer idea. We'll reassess then.
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2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupDylanS
September 3, 2012 at 4:47PM EST Reply to CommentKris: I have an opinional question regarding "Argo", and I was wondering if you could weigh in, having seen the film.
I really think it would be smart for WB to push getting Bryan Cranston a supporting actor nomination for the film, as it sounds like the best shot the film has out of the ensemble. He's apparently very good (though maybe not exceptionally so) and has enough screen time to really make an argument for awards recognition. The one setback I can gather from his performance is that it doesn't rise above the ensemble (as nobody really does), but I think if you put an actor as likable as him (he's always very charming in interviews) out on the circuit an build a narrative of a great character actor doing wonderful work on TV in "Breaking Bad" finally getting a solid supporting role in a likely best picture nominee, the actors might bite. Your thoughts?
Edwin Before Kris responds, let me just say that based on the early reviews, it seems like Alan Arkin is frequently being mentioned as a scene-stealer. Despite his apparently limited screen time, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets the biggest push from WB.
September 3, 2012 at 5:36PM ESTThere's probably an equally good case to be made for Arkin, Goodman, and Cranston. Arkin for the reason I just mentioned, Goodman because he's never been nominated and is having something of a career resurgence right now, and Cranston because (from what I've read) he's the closest the movie has to an anchoring supporting role.
Not that I'm comparing the two movies at all (they likely couldn't be more different), but it could turn out to be a "Seabiscuit" scenario where three cast members kept showing up in various precursor awards (Jeff Bridges, Chris Cooper, and William H. Macy), but no general consensus was ever formed around any one of them, so it turned out that nobody got nominated by the Academy. It could be similar with Arkin, Cranston, and Goodman this year, for example if Goodman gets a Golden Globe nod, Arkin gets a BFCA nod, and Cranston gets a SAG nod, or something like that, and then none of them get an Oscar nomination.
Kristopher Tapley It's Cranston, Arkin and Goodman. But the studio knows well enough that Arkin is the -- not exactly scene-stealer, but at the very least live wire of the film. Cranston is a great anchor, a consistent, solid presence. Personally I don't think there's enough for any of them to get in, but if they build a case for someone, it'll likely be Arkin.
September 4, 2012 at 2:28AM ESTDooby
September 3, 2012 at 4:57PM EST Reply to CommentIn the supporting actress collumm you say the category is in need of contendors, how about Alicia Vikander in AK, whom Guy and a couple of other reviewers had kind words for?
Edwin
September 3, 2012 at 5:41PM EST Reply to CommentI think the best thing that could happen to "Amour" would be for it to be disqualified from the Foreign Language Film category. There always seems to be more of an incentive for voters to nominate foreign films in other categories when they know it won't be awarded in the foreign language ghetto. I can definitely see it getting in for Actress and Original Screenplay. I'm not sure about Jean-Louis Trintignant (although it would be wonderful) just because the category is becoming a bit crowded. Haneke could get in for Director, and with the way the Best Picture nominees are decided now, that would essentially translate into a Best Picture nomination. On a related note, do you think it's even possible for there to be a "lone director" nomination anymore?
Andrej
September 3, 2012 at 5:57PM EST Reply to CommentI just heard the latest Oscar Poker from Awards Daily, and they mentioned you were just 'okay' about No. What happened, was it the old fashioned ratio or something else?
Laura Stewart
September 3, 2012 at 6:57PM EST Reply to CommentCurious as to why The Master is below Les Miz and Promised Land. Seems like the critical consensus is just as overwhelmingly positive as it is for Argo and while it may not be as Academy friendly as say, Argo or a beloved musical starring Anne Hathaway, PTA seems to have joined the exclusive "Oscar go to" club- and I'm all for it!!
WG Everything's listed in alphabetical order.
September 4, 2012 at 1:44AM ESTJohn G. WG - I believe she's referring to the Contenders page
September 4, 2012 at 1:47AM ESTLaura Stewart Yup, John G.
September 5, 2012 at 7:46PM ESTcineJAB
September 3, 2012 at 9:17PM EST Reply to Commentso does anyone think that the movie Pitch Perfect has an outside chance at maybe just an original screenplay nomination? I think it's safe to say Anna Kendrick is at least a possibility for a golden globe nomination.
Paul
September 3, 2012 at 10:34PM EST Reply to CommentAlso on the supporting actress contenders... Do you not think Amanda Seyfried fares any chance? I think she may be just as good as Barks. And what about Emma Watson for "Perks?"
Joe7827
September 4, 2012 at 8:55AM EST Reply to CommentI thought that "The Intouchables" was going to get a push. Is it a no-go?
Mr.F
September 4, 2012 at 9:38AM EST Reply to CommentI just saw that Disney is giving Arjun its qualifying run this week, but how can it qualify when it is already available on Netflix Instant Watch?
DoctorJakoby
September 4, 2012 at 12:48PM EST Reply to CommentKris, tell me if I'm wrong but wouldn't Fox Searchlight have already acquired "To The Wonder" if they wanted to?
Mr.F I remember reading somewhere that various studios, including Searchlight, had approached the producers and financiers to acquire it but Malick wouldn't even let them take a meeting.
September 4, 2012 at 2:13PM ESTKristopher Tapley Yeah I don't think anyone had seen it until recently.
September 4, 2012 at 3:55PM EST