'Grand Budapest' dominates BAFTA as 'Selma' snub raises Oscar red flags
The most important thing to consider when looking at the 2015 BAFTA Awards nominations is that the voting process is actually (mostly) the opposite of the Academy Awards. For the Best Film and acting categories, the entire membership can vote on the nominations and winners. Other honors, such as Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Director, Editing, Make-Up & Hair, Original Music, Production Design, Sound, and Special Visual Effects, are determined completely by their respective branches. That means, for the most part, that the BAFTA nominations are a reflection of broad support in the top five races. Keep that in mind.
The Oscars, on the other hand, are determined by branches first except for Best Picture. The final awards are then voted on by the entire membership except for a select number of categories. The BAFTAs are important because many see them as more in line with how the Academy membership votes than some of the large guilds like SAG (not that the acting powerhouse isn't important). Taking all that into account, this morning's BAFTA announcement featured a number of surprises that could also be reflected in Thursday's Oscar nominations.
"The Grand Budapest Hotel" was always going to do well, but dominate?
Wes Anderson's critical and box office hit not only led the field with 11 nominations, but earned key Best Film, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Editing and, in a major surprise, Best Actor honors for Ralph Fiennes. It's unlikely that Fiennes repeats his BAFTA nod with an Oscar one, but Editing (a branch vote) was the most telling. The Scott Rudin production could also land the most Oscar nods next week and an Anderson nod for Best Director isn't out of the question either.
Steve Carell falls to Supporting Actor
Speaking to an Oscar consultant right after the nominations were revealed, this was the first thing they noticed. Sony Classics' campaign for Carell has purposely been in lead and he earned a SAG nod in the equivalent category. Surprisingly, the BAFTA membership decided on their own that it was supporting. The Academy has also been known to put actors in categories their studios didn't prefer. Most notably, Kate Winslet in lead actress for "The Reader" in 2009. Could this be a sign of things to come?
"Nightcrawler's" support isn't a mirage
The Dan Gilroy drama earned four nominations including Actor (Jake Gyllenhaal), Original Screenplay, Editing and, the big one, Supporting Actress for Rene Russo. Don't be surprised if the stealth Oscar candidate knocks out an expected nominee on Thursday morning.
"Selma's" snub isn't a joke
Everyone who has seen "Selma" from critic to moviegoers generally feels it's a major Oscar player. Unfortunately, this is now the third time a major organization has snubbed Ava DuVernay's drama following the SAG Awards in December and the PGA last week. Those organizations didn't receive screeners for "Selma," but considering the number of key British talent involved, including stars David Oyelowo and Tom Wilkinson, it's a huge red flag for Paramount and the film's producers.