Does 'Frankenweenie''s disappointing box office harm its Oscar chances?
Disney's campaign will have to focus on art and sentiment over commerce
A scene from "Frankenweenie."
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I could tell things weren't going swimmingly for "Frankenweenie" this weekend when I could use a single hand to count the responses to our post inviting your thoughts on the film. For whatever reason, and not for lack of critical enthusiasm, Tim Burton's peculiarly personal stop-motion animated feature just hadn't caught the public's imagination, and the figures last night made for discouraging reading: after opening wide in over 3000 theaters, "Frankenweenie" limped into fifth place with $11.4 million, less than half of what rival Halloween-friendly animation "Hotel Transylviania" managed to gross in its second weekend. International box office will surely be required to clear a budget of $39 million.
I'm no box office analyst, but as disappointed as I am by this tepid reception for a lovingly made film that deserves an audience, I'm hardly surprised. As much as Disney tried to underline Burton's money-raking "Alice in Wonderland" credentials in the marketing, "Frankenweenie" is a tough sell: a stylized, macabre and boldly black-and-white mosaic homage to vintage horror/monster movies, it's a film for the director's devotees who likely loathed "Alice."
Disney are to be congratulated on stumping up for what is essentially an auteur piece, but if they thought it was going to gross as much as "Corpse Bride" -- which, in addition to being in color, boasted to marquee appeal of Johnny Depp -- they were kidding themselves. Certainly, the warmly-reviewed film hasn't done anyone's reputation any harm: in Burton's case, it's positively salvaged it after the frosty critical reception for "Alice" (for all its millions) and "Dark Shadows." The question now is whether Academy voters will admire the artistic commitment evident in "Frankenweenie," or hold the film's commercial performance against it.
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With healthier box office, the film would comfortably be in the driver's seat for the Best Animated Feature Oscar in a year that hasn't delivered a true phenomenon in the medium. Pixar were widely deemed to be treading water with "Brave," well-liked as it is; "Paranorman" has some ardent champions, but not everyone seems to get it; we're still waiting on "Rise of the Guardians."
"Frankenweenie" has the potentially winning combination of exquisite craft, hip but not alienating humor and a retro aesthetic and sensibility that could inspire a feeling of protectiveness in some voters; better yet, it gives them a chance to honor a major filmmaker who may well never win an Oscar in a major category. It's worth noting that, on the rare occasions Pixar hasn't triumphed in this category since its inception in 2001, the Academy has often opted for a filmmaker who's a known quantity: Gore Verbinski for "Rango," George Miller for "Happy Feet," Hayao Miyazaki for "Spirited Away," even the three-time Oscar-winners behind "Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit" -- who beat Burton the last time has was up for one of these.
That's all good news, but the fact remains that this is an Oscar category that overwhelmingly favors blockbusters. The average Stateside gross of a Best Animated Feature winner is around $218 million, while of 11 previous winners, only two have totals below nine figures: "Spirited Away," an anomalous art-film victor that did well to reach $10 million, and "Wallace & Gromit," still a tidy little underdog performer with $56 million. (It was narrowly the highest-grossing nominee that year.)
Perhaps not coincidentally, they're also the only two past winners to veer from the slick computer animation that is the norm these days: with a similar handmade appeal, "Frankenweenie" will be going after the same nostalgia vote that those films successfully chased, though neither had to contend with the faint stigma of box office disappointment. It'd be nice to see this puppy come through on its own charms.
2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupJasper
October 8, 2012 at 9:09PM EST Reply to CommentThis is a branch of the Academy that seems to be down with the auteurs and the artier films. Yes, the winners are blockbusters, but it's hard to say that those Pixar winners or Rango were undeserving. I think it says a lot that the animation branch would nominate Chico and Rita, or the then-unreleased A Cat in Paris, over Cars 2 or another studio ATM. It seems to me that we're well past the days when they'd nominate Brother Bear over Millennium Actress.
Guy Lodge Oh, I didn't mean to imply that Rango or assorted Pixar winners were artistically unworthy -- but artistry tied to huge box office will always be their first choice. Nothing especially wrong with that.
October 8, 2012 at 9:21PM ESTStefan
October 8, 2012 at 9:37PM EST Reply to CommentI agree with Jasper. If the voters in this category are enthusiastic about a film, they will nominate regardless of box-office, e.g. the small The Illusionist getting in over the mega-blockbuster and crowd-pleasing Tangled, the unknown Secret of Kells and box-office disappointment Fantastic Mr Fox over the acclaimed hit Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, the flop Surf's Up instead of The Simpsons Movie (based on a popular and iconic series and very acclaimed by critics and audiences).
I think the Animated Feature Oscar will be between Frankenweenie and ParaNorman this year, though watch out for Wreck-It Ralph.
Guy Lodge I don't think the nomination for Frankenweenie is really in doubt. It's the win I'm talking about.
October 8, 2012 at 9:47PM ESTEdwin
October 8, 2012 at 10:02PM EST Reply to CommentAs of right now, I still think "Frankenweenie" is the frontrunner. That could change if "Wreck-It Ralph" or especially "Rise of the Guardians" makes a big splash, but despite its poor opening weekend, "Frankenweenie" still has more going for it than any other animated film released thus far this year. I'm inclined to believe that they won't ever award a Pixar movie if it's perceived to be even a mild disappointment. They've already given the award to Pixar 6 times, so unless it's an out-of-the-park inevitability like their past winners have been, I'd like to think they'd probably go out of their way to let someone else have a turn at winning this prize. And as you pointed out, "ParaNorman" has its fans, but it also seems to have a lot of people who just don't see the appeal, so "Frankenweenie" has to have the best shot so far. It's somewhat arty but also accessible (aside from its B&W) and emotional, and it's made by a respected live-action director (though he's been slowly losing respect over the past decade) who has never won an Oscar in any category before. If these three were the nominees, I'd place money on "Frankenweenie" taking it home.
But of course, there are still two major animated movies to be released, not to mention a bunch of GKIDS titles that could earn their fair share of acclaim. I frankly don't think "Wreck-It Ralph" will be their cup of tea (video games are not exactly a subject I imagine the Academy being taken by), and as much as they like to nominate at least one under-the-radar movie every year in this category, they've never actually let one win, so I doubt any GKIDS movie will take it home. It's either "Rise of the Guardians" or "Frankenweenie," I think.
Interesting sidebar: if "Frankenweenie" wins, it will become the first Disney movie to win this award without the help of Pixar. Also, even though DreamWorks is the second-biggest producer of animated films after Pixar, they haven't won this award since "Shrek" won in the very first year of the category's existence. So either way, there's probably an "overdue" aspect to this year's winner.
Edwin Also, I forgot to mention that it's quite possible "Frankenweenie" has decent legs at the box office, considering two things:
October 8, 2012 at 10:09PM ESTa) "Hotel Transylvania" will fade out, and there aren't any other animated/family movies coming out for the rest of the month.
b) Possible increased interest in the movie leading up to Halloween.
More than the black-and-white aspect of the movie, I think the main reason it underperformed so badly is because Disney gave it a bad release date. One week after "Hotel Transylvania" and still weeks before Halloween? They should have waited at least another week to release it, or even better, I think the ideal release date would have been October 19th.
JJ1 good points, Edwin. I hope it can get up into the 40-50 million range, at least.
October 9, 2012 at 8:00AM ESTfsafsf "Also, even though DreamWorks is the second-biggest producer of animated films after Pixar,"
October 9, 2012 at 10:09AM ESTBiggest in what sense? DreamWorks is bigger than Pixar in terms of output, which also, on average, translates into higher grosses. Still, if we go by output alone, there are studios in the world that trump both.
gregel
October 8, 2012 at 11:09PM EST Reply to CommentActually, after Frankenweenie, the frontrunner would be Rise of the Guardians.
Guy Lodge I didn't say otherwise.
October 9, 2012 at 7:34AM ESTJJ1 I would agree. And yet, I still think 'Brave' is slightly underrated.
October 9, 2012 at 8:03AM ESTI suppose it's less-than-amazing reception and Pixar-has-lost-some-of-it's-mojo thing gives it a feel as an also ran?
October 9, 2012 at 3:53PM ESTBen M.
October 8, 2012 at 11:49PM EST Reply to CommentRango wasn't really a big hit either. The film couldn't match its $135 million budget in domestic box office and did less overseas, which means when you account for marketing costs and exhibitors take of the money, there is a chance that the film lost money.
As for Frankenweenie, I do agree that the film would be the clear frontrunner if it had been a big hit, but I'm not sure it can't win or was even hurt that much with the underwhelming box office, particularly since it isn't an easy sell that was expected to make a lot. I did catch the film today, and it is a solid and beautifully crafted film, I prefer Paranorman (which I feel is one of the best films of the year, animated or not) but certainly couldn't complain if this is the film that finally brings Burton an oscar.
lazygarfield
October 9, 2012 at 4:37AM EST Reply to CommentGuy,
Do you not think Wreck-It Ralph has any chances in this category? It's not even listed as a possible nomination in the Contenders.
Christophe
October 9, 2012 at 5:19AM EST Reply to CommentI doubt the poor BO performance hurts Frankenweenie's chances in the Best Animated Feature category, but it certainly annihilates any glimmer of chance it had to be nominated in other categories (Picture, Screenplay, Arts & Craft).
JJ1 I really enjoyed it. I see it nommed. But for the win, I think it needs more of everything - certainly buzz, and also to deafen the "it's a box office disappointment" echoes.
October 9, 2012 at 8:08AM ESTGuy Lodge Christophe: Well, that was never really on the cards anyway -- though I wouldn't entirely dismiss Danny Elfman's score just yet.
October 9, 2012 at 12:17PM ESTj
October 10, 2012 at 8:45AM EST Reply to CommentThis year seems kinda lame compared to, say, 2009:
MC scores
Sita Sings the Blues 94 (not eligible, but still 2009 and still beautiful and wonderful)
Up 88 - One of the best opening sequences in years. Well-done and heartfelt.
Ponyo 86 - Beautiful, sounded amazing, Tina Fey, good message
Fantastic Mr. Fox 83
Secret of Kells 81 - Beautiful imagery and sound, taught me about something in an interesting way
Coraline 80 - Creepily delightful with a kickass and realistically flawed heroine
This year the best reviewed movie in the running has just 75.