Ben Affleck, Lena Dunham, Rian Johnson win Directors Guild awards
'Argo' keeps on keepin' on
Ben Affleck at the 65th annual DGA Awards
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Check off one more box on the "Argo" industry tour of awards season goodies. The Directors Guild of America (DGA) has crowned Ben Affleck with the award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film, this just a week removed from big wins from the Producers and Screen Actors Guilds. Is it really clear sailing to a Best Picture win at the Oscars from here? Or will the fact that Academy members won't even have ballots in hand until Friday mean there's too much time for "them" to second guess the guild circuit?
Affleck would be in rare air whichever direction the season decides to take from here. If "Argo" indeed wins at the Academy Awards, it'll be just the fourth film in history to do so without a Best Director nomination. If it doesn't, it will be only the second film (in a shorter history) to win the PGA, DGA and SAG ensemble prizes but fail to win Best Picture. So the question becomes, is the situation closer to "Wings"/"Grand Hotel"/"Driving Miss Daisy," or is it closer to "Apollo 13?"
Personally, I think that's pretzel logic. "Argo" is "Argo." The preferential ballot is the unique element. And the industry at large has clearly spoken. Phase two hasn't kicked in and there is time for something to change. There is time for "Lincoln" to turn things around and come off the call to worship. There is time for Fox to find the right rhythm that seemingly eluded it in phase one until "Life of Pi" ended up with 11 nominations. But personally, I think we have plenty to go on, and it's just willful neglect to seek out other avenues. "Argo" will become its own precedent.
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It's interesting, though, that so many think that it is in this position purely due to the Best Director snub. I don't think so. Support for the film is deep and wide, and it was before the nominations were announced on January 10. All the snub potentially did was embolden love that already existed. That kind of thing doesn't turn a "Lincoln" lover into an "Argo" lover. So let's not look for ways to explain it away. It's the movie. And "they" really like it.
Elsewhere, Malik Bendjelloul won in the documentary field for his own awards season sweeper, "Searching for Sugar Man." I feel pretty confident that it will charge on through to an Oscar win as well, but that's a really strong field this year.
Full list of DGA winners below. Keep track of all the ups and downs of the season via The Circuit.
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film
Ben Affleck, "Argo"
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Documentary
Malik Bendjelloul, "Searching for Sugar Man"
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Movies for Television and Mini-Series
Jay Roach, "Game Change"
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Dramatic Series
Rian Johnson, "Breaking Bad"
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Comedy Series
Lena Dunham, "Girls"
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Musical Variety
Glenn Weiss, "66th Annual Tony Awards"
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Reality Programs
Brian Smith, "Master Chef"
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Daytime Serials
Jill Mitwell, "One Life to Live"
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Children's Programs
Paul Hoen, "Let it Shine"
Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Commercials
Alejandro González Iñárritu, "Best Job"
Lifetime Achievement Award
Milos Forman
Robert B. Aldrich Service Award
Michael Apted
Lifetime Achievement in News Direction Award
Eric Shapiro
Frank Capra Achievement Award
Susan Zwerman
Franklin J. Schaffner Achievement Award
Dency Nelson
2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupDriving Apollo 13
February 3, 2013 at 2:58AM EST Reply to CommentWill this be the first year where none of the Best Director nominees won any precursor awards prior to the ceremony? Mel Gibson won the Golden Globe and I would imagine the Driving Miss Daisy director didn't win all the precursor awards like Affleck.
Guy Lodge Depends what you define as a "precursor award." Lee, for example, has London and Las Vegas critics' awards -- small precursors, but precursors nonetheless.
February 3, 2013 at 8:49AM ESTDriving Apollo 13 I was thinking of the big precursors. If we included all the city critics awards, Benh Zeitlin would also have a precursor award from his win with The Bathtub Critics Association.
February 3, 2013 at 12:59PM EST/3rt
February 3, 2013 at 3:07AM EST Reply to CommentBAFTA will be kissing Argo's ass as well. I hope they break for Chastain.
Jonnybon I wouldn't read too much into Affleck's actor nod. I think Pi wins.
February 3, 2013 at 2:09PM ESTGlennAU
February 3, 2013 at 3:32AM EST Reply to CommentDoes anybody have the stats on whether Lena Dunham's win is significent? How often does the DGA recognise women in their tv categories?
PaulinJapan
February 3, 2013 at 3:33AM EST Reply to CommentKris is correct, lots of bloggers are suggesting that Affleck's snub has created this Argo love. Nonsense. It won the Globes and Critics Choice before the snub was known, on the back of being the the most hailed movie from the critics groups, having universally high scores from RT et al, and being Ebert's number one movie of the year. Some people can't see the wood for the trees!
February 3, 2013 at 4:07AM ESTPaulinJapan @Gregory
February 3, 2013 at 8:17AM ESTGlobes and Critics Choice have zero to do with the Oscars? Really? Academy members live in a vacuum? There is no correlation between critically acclaimed movies and Oscar wins? Wow, here was me thinking a movie that is hailed by the likes of Ebert, and wins plaudits in shows that are watched by millions has a better chance of winning than average. Of course, the correlation isn't 100% but to think Globe and Critics wins don't help build momentum towards Guild and Oscar success shows willful ignorance.
Patrick @Paul, willful ignorance? To you Paul, it's confirmation bias.
February 3, 2013 at 10:53AM ESTBball_Jake
February 3, 2013 at 3:38AM EST Reply to CommentI still think Silver Linings Playbook can win Best Picture, it got the Big 5 nominees along with 3 other nominees, the Academy clearly Loves the movie. Argo just doesn't deserve the win at all.
GRubi Honestly, I don't think Silver Linings has much of a chance. And keep in mind, this is coming from someone who likes SLP more than all but one (Django) of the other nominees. Its really only in fourth position in regards to likelihood of winning. Just because it got the big five doesn't mean the academy loves it. For one thing, Cooper and Weaver have zero chance of winning in their categories and De Niro only has an outside chance. I'm thinking it will probably get Best Actress and the Academy will consider that an award for the whole film. I'm not saying its right, but then again, a lot of what the Academy does isn't right...
February 3, 2013 at 4:26AM ESTJonnybon SLP could absolutely win, as could ZDT. And I feel confident Django WOULD win if less violent. Strange year.
February 3, 2013 at 4:58AM ESTJonathan I think Lincoln and SLP are the only ones with a legit shot at taking down Argo at this point.
February 3, 2013 at 6:02AM ESTNevertheless, I am happy Affleck's doing so well for himself, people gave him way too hard of a time before, sure he made a couple bad movies, but people started retroactively claiming he made nothing but crappy films as an actor.
For every Gigli, he had a Changing Lanes or a Dogma, and nobody gave Damon that much crap when he made a Stuck on You or a Brothers Grimm.
But back to this year, I can't help but think there's something holding Lincoln back that has allowed Argo to surge ahead, is it the idea of rewarding Day-Lewis and Spielberg yet again, a feeling that they need to spread the wealth a little?
I also think the Supporting Actor category will be very telling, if Arkin wins, we know Lincoln is doomed, if DeNiro wins, the SLP folks might get excited and if Jones wins, Spielberg can breathe a little easier.
Although I kinda want Waltz or Hoffman to win just to make everyone sweat.
Guy Lodge "And I feel confident Django WOULD win if less violent."
February 3, 2013 at 8:52AM ESTSo Django would win if it weren't a Quentin Tarantino film? Not sure I follow this logic. I mean, any film could win if it were another film altogether.
RichardZ Agreeing on everything Jonathan said. That supporting actor win early on the broadcast will be very interesting...not sure if it will mean anything tho.
February 3, 2013 at 9:33AM ESTI feel like SLP is on ascendance.
The problem with Lincoln was it could have the storytelling a lot more clear on what was going on. Sure it had the gravitas, but admittedly it was kinda hard to follow the vote counting and whole drama about Tommy Lee Jones could have been sharper. It was a little confusing. The script was there, the director failed to crystallize the essence.
nic919 I can see why Argo is picking up best picture awards over Lincoln, because as an overall movie watching experience, it is much better. Lincoln has DDL angsting over the passing of the amendment, but it is just not that entertaining. Zero Dark Thirty also deals with a serious subject and is a better movie watching experience than Lincoln. Argo is a little less intense than ZDT and is more conventional, so I think that's why it is pulling in more votes than ZDT too. I feel Bigelow has been overlooked in this whole Affleck snub story.
February 3, 2013 at 1:49PM ESTJonnybon Less violence would not make it "another film altogether", Mr Lodge. I'm only talking about the gratuitous bits, of which there aren't many until the final shootout. Granted, they add significantly to the comedy element, but the more prudish bunch may find something to love without them.
February 3, 2013 at 2:17PM ESTmanrico1967
February 3, 2013 at 5:57AM EST Reply to CommentI just went to see SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK.
Turns out the all the nominations it got were deserved.
Specially Cooper and Lawrence.
You never know what will happen in the future, but I think Lawrence has the potential of being a truly great actress.
As for the DGA, I called it for Affleck the day the Oscar noms were out.
I posted it in the comments at AWARDS DAILY, but I don't think I did it here.
George Kaplan I was really enjoying SLP until the third act. By the end, I wanted to stab this movie in the face. The actors were all great though.
February 3, 2013 at 1:24PM ESThttp://www.cinema-ramblings.com/2013/02/silver-linings-playbook.html
jetenreiro
February 3, 2013 at 11:17AM EST Reply to CommentKris - as I've said, I agree with you regarding what will happen the rest of the season. Looking to the past for clues is only of limited use, and the things that make 1989, 1995, etc different than this year actually matter and lessen their predictive value.
I think Argo is going to win BP easily.
One minor nit-pick: I don't think the argument is that a Lincoln lover turned into an Argo lover. But it's plausible that it turned lovers of other films with no chance to win into Argo lovers.
But, that's a minor nit because ultimately I think you're right - Argo is Argo. "They" like Argo more. Period.
(And, as I've said, to me, that speaks terribly of their tastes (not trying to be disrespectful, I know you guys are behind the movie, just my opinion) - rewatching Zero Dark Thirty yesterday I was struck by how it felt to me like a serious, grown-up Argo.)
Patrick
February 3, 2013 at 12:53PM EST Reply to Comment"The preferential ballot is the unique element. And the industry at large has clearly spoken."
Kris, the Australian Labor Party could win the election at large but still lose in Queensland. Just because you're the consensus film for a large population doesn't make you the consensus film for a subset of it.
What's better:
a) interpolating the opinions of AMPAS members from the nominations of their individual branches (all obtained via preferential voting)?
b) extrapolating the opinions of AMPAS members from the winners of other guilds (with minimal overlap with AMPAS, and only PGA uses preferential voting)?
Patrick But you're right Kris, Argo isn't like Apollo 13, because Apollo 13 had a BETTER CHANCE of winning:
February 3, 2013 at 1:02PM EST1) It took DGA, PGA and SAG, all of which used plurality voting, same as the Oscars at that time. Now that the Oscars use preferential, only the PGA follows.
2) It only had 1 less nominations than the leader, which was Braveheart with 10 nods. Argo has just over half the nods as Lincoln.
Kristopher Tapley "Kris, the Australian Labor Party could win the election at large but still lose in Queensland. Just because you're the consensus film for a large population doesn't make you the consensus film for a subset of it."
February 3, 2013 at 2:35PM ESTThis pretty much proves my point.
"interpolating the opinions of AMPAS members from the nominations of their individual branches (all obtained via preferential voting)?"
We've gone over this before, but once again, this makes sense if you deem each branch's choices to be a Best Picture choice. I don't. Therefore this makes little sense.
"It took DGA, PGA and SAG, all of which used plurality voting, same as the Oscars at that time. Now that the Oscars use preferential, only the PGA follows."
Where "Argo" won, so…
I mean, keep bending over backwards if you must.
Kristopher Tapley Nothing inherent stops "Argo" at this point. The only thing that could derail it is the schedule. Ballots go out Friday so voters will be choosing well outside this guild bubble. Will they push back? Look elsewhere? Or will the preferential ballot favor the film as it always would have? It would take a lot of savvy voters aware of how the process works (most of them aren't) to say, "Hm, better push Argo on down my ballot." If anything maybe they'll knock it down to 2 or 3, which, frankly, could help the film all the more -- as long as they don't bump it for a frontrunner, that is.
February 3, 2013 at 2:37PM ESTjetenreiro But it's very hard for anything to sneak in with the expanded BP field. Even if people push Argo below a potential winner it will likely be below a Lincoln or a SLP- but that's enough to doom any potential upset - that there's not one other consensus pick out there. It's Argo
February 3, 2013 at 2:47PM ESTPatrick "This pretty much proves my point."
February 3, 2013 at 3:05PM ESTSorry, how's that? AMPAS is Queensland; worst yet, AMPAS isn't even fully represented by DGA, PGA and SAG. So for example, assume only 30% of Queensland voted (which is probably the percentage of AMPAS represented by those guilds), then you're extrapolating that just because the Australian Labor Party won at large, it means the party would also win if you do a separate vote with just Queensland, and 100%.
Patrick "We've gone over this before, but once again, this makes sense if you deem each branch's choices to be a Best Picture choice. I don't. Therefore this makes little sense."
February 3, 2013 at 3:10PM ESTJust like how you deem that the SAG ensemble means that actors would pick it as their Best Picture, right? Or that the DGA win means directors would pick it for Best Picture and not just on the merit of directing?
We're both bending over backwards Kris. At least I'm interpolating from within AMPAS itself; you're extrapolating from the outside.
Patrick "Where "Argo" won, so…"
February 3, 2013 at 3:22PM ESTAnd Apollo 13 won DGA, PGA and SAG with the SAME plurality voting as AMPAS, yet it still lost BP. Shocking? No, because the Academy's nominations made it clear that they weren't going to pick Apollo 13. (In case it wasn't clear the first time: Apollo 13 lacked a BD nod and had less nods than a film with a BD nod)
Kristopher Tapley "Just like how you deem that the SAG ensemble means that actors would pick it as their Best Picture, right? Or that the DGA win means directors would pick it for Best Picture and not just on the merit of directing?"
February 3, 2013 at 3:28PM ESTNope, never said that. Not once. It flows with history.
If you have to lean on one example in history to boost your argument (Apollo 13), then okay. I have three (Wings, Grand Hotel, Driving Miss Daisy). I mean, you're the numbers guy...
Kristopher Tapley The really silly thing is to get into the idea that the guilds aren't the Academy. There's plenty of crossover, first and foremost, but that aside, do you think a SAG actor is from Mars and an Academy actor is from Venus?
February 3, 2013 at 3:31PM ESTKristopher Tapley And just one more thing. It's not like the guild wins brought me to a place of picking "Argo." I was on it before that, largely as a result of talking to Academy members who like the film, like the story of the film, etc. I've been saying for weeks that Argo and SLP are the two that are universally praised. So there's plenty of "interpolation" going on on my side, Patrick.
February 3, 2013 at 3:36PM ESTPatrick "If you have to lean on one example in history to boost your argument (Apollo 13), then okay. I have three (Wings, Grand Hotel, Driving Miss Daisy)."
February 3, 2013 at 3:38PM ESTPGA, DGA and SAG didn't even exist for Wings and Grand Hotel. Driving Miss Daisy was the nominations leader.
"There's plenty of crossover, first and foremost, but that aside, do you think a SAG actor is from Mars and an Academy actor is from Venus?"
Of course not. But do you think a SAG actor is a human and an Academy actor is a shadow?
What's the crossover then Kris? 1,000 AMPAS actors out of 100,000 SAG actors, right? Would that yield accurate extrapolation?
Kristopher Tapley I'm sorry all this bothers you so much, Patrick. I guess I have nothing else to say. We're talking in circles.
February 3, 2013 at 3:40PM ESTPatrick Actually Kris, this discussion is interesting and always has been; far from a bother. If you don't mind though, one last question:
February 3, 2013 at 3:51PM ESTNow with all these precursor wins, have you moved Argo up on your personal top ten of 2012?
Kristopher Tapley Why would I do that?
February 3, 2013 at 3:59PM ESTPatrick "Why would I do that?"
February 3, 2013 at 4:15PM ESTI don't expect you to. I wouldn't expect AMPAS to either.
Just reassuring that the guilds don't influence; they illuminate.
Kristopher Tapley I knew that was where you were going so I let you play it out.
February 3, 2013 at 4:17PM ESTI've never once said guilds influence. And I asked merely as a hypothetical in this post whether the "Argo" surge could maybe initiate some push-back since ballots aren't in the Academy's hands until Friday. I've said countless times that precursor awards "illuminate" rather than influence, so that's nothing new on me. Though it would seem new on you, since you've spent the majority of this thread trying to convince that they illuminate nothing and that thinking otherwise is "extrapolation."
Patrick Kris, sorry, my reassurement was directed to your other readers.
February 3, 2013 at 4:25PM ESTMy argument with you though is that you put more weight on extrapolating what the guilds illuminate as opposed to interpolating what the AMPAS branches illuminate. I argue for the reverse, and we can leave it at that if you want.
Kristopher Tapley No I consider all angles. But we can leave it at that.
February 3, 2013 at 4:32PM ESTEdwin I don't think a film's overall nomination tally is indicative at all of its Best Picture momentum, so I don't think that should necessarily be considered an advantage that "Lincoln" has over "Argo." Consider that only once in the past eight Oscar ceremonies did the most nominated movie win Best Picture. Of course, I'm not suggesting that having the most nominations is actually a disadvantage, but like I said, it doesn't mean much in terms of Best Picture prospects.
February 3, 2013 at 5:59PM ESTGuy Lodge "Consider that only once in the past eight Oscar ceremonies did the most nominated movie win Best Picture."
February 4, 2013 at 7:58AM ESTNot entirely true, since No Country for Old Men and The Hurt Locker both jointly led the nominations. But I agree with you that the top nomination tally is no longer the advantage it seemed to be in, say, the 1990s.
Patrick Edwin, Guy, just to clarify, I'm not saying that the answers are just in the nomination COUNT; I'm saying they're in the nomination LIST. Yes nomination count is important: if you look at the 2000s, 11 of the 12 BP winners either had the most nominations or second most. Argo is FIFTH. What else can we see from the nomination LIST? Argo doesn't have a BD nod, and three other films that do have BD nods also have more nominations than Argo. The one exception of the 12 BP winners was The Departed, which was also fifth in nominations. But it had a BD nod!
February 4, 2013 at 9:29AM ESTNow you can argue the BD nod is insignifcant because the directors branch is small and think differently. But the fact that Amour and Beasts got BP, actress and screenplay nods too shows that they're thinking might actually reflect the Academy as a whole. These old white men may not be as hot for Affleck as the rest of the industry.
Edwin Patrick, I'm not denying that a win for "Argo" would in some ways be unprecedented. I'm just saying that this year feels unusual enough to go against precedent and statistics.
February 4, 2013 at 4:40PM ESTDanny
February 3, 2013 at 1:37PM EST Reply to CommentArgo would not be my first choice to win in this year's line up. It would be fifth, or sixth...
And yet I still consider it a worthy winner, and I won't be upset if it "upsets" (if a 7 nom film winning over 12 and 11 nom films is an "upset").
Just another sign what an awesome year for movies it has been.
And my personal favorite film of the year didn't even get any nominations....
Danny As to the directing nomination "snub", I'm inclined to subscribe to the theory that it wasn't so much a snub but a surprise to all. They thought Affleck (and Bigelow too) was sure of a nom; and so individual nominators threw their support towards Hanecke or Zeitlin or even Russell to give those "outliers" a boost for the "fifth slot", and when the votes were tabulated it just worked out the way it turned out.
February 3, 2013 at 1:50PM ESTfilmnoirguy
February 3, 2013 at 4:26PM EST Reply to CommentWhat I find interesting is that at the Academy, directors nominate directors (actors nominate actors, etc.). Wouldn't you think that many of the Directors Guild members would also belong to the Academy? So why did they snub Ben Affleck (and Kathryn Bigelow) for an Oscar nod, yet award Affleck the DGA?
Kristopher Tapley DGA is a much broader group that includes first ADs, UPMs, TV directors, etc. Academy directors branch is a much smaller, more eclectic group.
February 3, 2013 at 4:33PM ESTEdwin
February 3, 2013 at 5:48PM EST Reply to CommentThe "Apollo 13" comparison bothers me too, not just because of what you said about "Argo" being "Argo" and not any other film, but also because "Apollo 13" lost both the BFCA and Golden Globe, so it actually didn't sweep the precursors as thoroughly as "Argo" has. It also didn't win the BAFTA, which "Argo" also has a great shot at winning this year.
Funny scenario that won't happen but would be incredibly ironic: "Lincoln" wins Best Film at the BAFTA's despite Spielberg's snub, and Affleck wins Best Director. Like I said, it won't happen, but wouldn't that be hilarious?
Actually, I think Affleck will lose Best Director at the BAFTA's. They like splits more than the Academy does. I think Ang Lee will win the BAFTA, which will serve as the only indication that he's probably the frontrunner to win the Oscar.
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