'Argo' stuns for second-straight day this weekend at the SAG Awards
The actors are the latest to embrace Ben Affleck's Best Picture hopeful
The cast of "Argo" at the 2013 SAG Awards
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I've been out most of the evening but some quick thoughts on tonight's SAG outcome...
"Argo" is the story of the weekend, clearly. After coming out victorious at the PGA Awards it picked up the ensemble prize that everyone had either chalked up to "Lincoln" or "Silver Linings Playbook," with some outliers thinking "Les Misérables" had a shot at it. Surprise!
The obvious thing to point to for those who don't want to believe is "Apollo 13." PGA, DGA, SAG ensemble. If Ben Affleck gets lucky next weekend, his film will have the same trifecta. The first place "Braveheart" showed some lingering potential was at the WGA, though it beat out some easy competition in the Best Original Screenplay category. And it would nevertheless fall to "The Ususal Suspects" at the Oscars, while "Sense and Sensibility" would double up after its WGA win over "Apollo 13" by taking the gold at the Academy Awards, too.
I'll get into 1995 some more tomorrow, but for now, do we really think there's a "Braveheart" this year? Do we really think it's "Lincoln?" I'm asking honestly. I believe it's absolutely possible it could be, but I'm not going to ignore love for "Argo" first witnessed via conversation then born out in guild wins.
I've been over the idea that the film can certainly pick up wins elsewhere, which is the other "drawback" to some. Why can't it win Best Adapted Screenplay? Why can't it win Best Film Editing? After Tommy Lee Jones mean-mugged the Golden Globes and then failed to show up tonight, why can't it win Best Supporting Actor?
Related
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Screen Actors Guild Awards 2013 Live-Blog
Will the actors help clarify the Oscars picture?
I think it's time to take it just a little more serious.
Elsewhere, Daniel Day-Lewis won Best Actor, the aforementioned Jones won Best Supporting Actor, Jennifer Lawrence won Best Actress and Anne Hathaway won Best Supporting Actress. The only film not represented was "Zero Dark Thirty," and honestly, given the tone the season has taken within the industry, that makes sense. And the love was spread out well tonight. Though I do think we can't sleep on the fact that Jennifer Lawrence didn't have to deal with Emmanuelle Riva tonight.
Ballots still don't go out until February 8, so frankly, all that's happening now could yet shade the season more. Maybe there are those in the Academy who think "Argo" is getting a bit big for its britches. They could put on the brakes next month. All of this is happening separately and things aren't really going down in the same atmosphere. There are more shades yet to be revealed.
But for now, "Argo" is looking good, folks. It's looking real good. And you know you have a potential Best Picture in play when the backlash gets ugly. Just take a gander at Twitter (and likely, this comments section in due time).
The film winners of this year's SAG Awards below. Greg Ellwood will be back later tonight with the best and worst of the show.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"Argo"
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
"Skyfall"
2012-2013 OSCAR PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Film Editing
Best Makeup And Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Visual Effects
Best Animated Feature Film
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
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January 28, 2013 at 2:43AM EST Reply to CommentI desperately want anyone but Lawrence for the Oscar. And to be fair, I did see Silver Linings and appreciated her work in it.
Matthew Starr Agreed.
January 28, 2013 at 1:12PM ESTmeep Ditto.
January 28, 2013 at 2:58PM ESTTheOtherJamesD. I desperately want anyone BUT DDL for Best Actor, so I see where you're coming from. And he's my favorite actor, but I just was not into his interpretation. I'd much prefer a surprise Bradley Cooper win, for example.
January 28, 2013 at 8:33PM ESTPaul Outlaw
January 28, 2013 at 2:50AM EST Reply to CommentIt looks like Argo, DDL, Lawrence and Hathaway are our winners right now. And I only have a serious problem with one of those.
Will Sony Pictures Classics ever get a handle on their birthday girl's campaign, or should I just resign myself to being disgusted when they announce the Best Actress winner?
January 28, 2013 at 2:53AM ESTL There really isn't a long way to go. Someone can surprise at BAFTA, but so what? This is Lawrence's to lose.
January 28, 2013 at 2:57AM ESTPaul Outlaw Does anyone think Chastain still has a shot after the massacre of ZD30? It seems to be all up to Riva now to unseat Lawrence, and frankly I'm not seeing it. Maybe Riva should hire Cotillard as her proxy for the next few weeks.
January 28, 2013 at 3:01AM ESTJonnybon I think Riva's got this one.
January 28, 2013 at 10:05AM ESTBlake
January 28, 2013 at 3:29AM EST Reply to CommentThe smart money is definitely on Argo for best picture. But even if it wins at DGA, which I think it will, I think it needs to win at ACE and beat Lincoln at WGA to seem like a fully credible frontrunner.
When Crash went into Oscar night, it had no competition in original screenplay and editing. It seemed guaranteed to win at least those two awards.
Argo, on the other hand, could still walk away empty handed or with just a best picture win. It has competition in film editing with ZDT and Life of Pi. Argo has serious competition against Lincoln in adapted screenplay. It has no shot in hell at sound editing, but it could surprise in sound mixing if love for the film is that big. Score would be surprising because its not a very showy score, but Desplat is overdue. Alan Arkin everyone has in 5th place. He recently won and doesn't have BFCA, GG, or SAG. All the other guys have more support, and Arkin winning seems like a big stretch.
3 wins makes sense- Pic, Screenplay, Editing. But what could be weird is Argo could win Picture, Zero Dark Thirty could win editing, and Lincoln could win four oscars- director, screenplay, and two acting prizes.
liok I could see them giving Desplat the Oscar for his collective 2012 output.
January 28, 2013 at 6:10PM ESTLars
January 28, 2013 at 3:48AM EST Reply to CommentJust happy that Tina Fey and Bryan Cranston have won tonight! (Fey is actually touching and funny in this last season, especially the penultimate episode. Of course, Cranston is impeccably evil in the last season of Breaking Bad). Just like Paul said, I really want Riva to win, but I think that's most of wishful thinking than reality (the embrace of Lawrence from the industry). So far, it looked like the winners are pretty clear, but I'll still watch the telecast, and maybe, just maybe, there'll be a surprise here and there.
Overrated but Underrated
January 28, 2013 at 4:19AM EST Reply to CommentI disagree that Alan Arkin has a chance at Supporting. He's the one of the five that I think is definitely not winning. If they vote on merit, it's between PSH and Waltz. If they go off of who hasn't won in a while or who do you want to reward with a 2nd/3rd Oscar, it's between Tommy Lee Jones and De Niro. Considering it's a Tournament of Champions, merit has to come into play a little. It's hard to argue with a straight face that Alan Arkin's performance in Argo was the best performance out of that group.
Ricardo
January 28, 2013 at 5:18AM EST Reply to CommentLove Lawrence since Winter's Bone. If she wins, it's deserved. Wouldn't mind a Chastain win though.
Paul Outlaw She certainly deserved it for Winter's Bone, I'll give you that.
January 28, 2013 at 5:53AM ESTjetenreiro
January 28, 2013 at 9:09AM EST Reply to CommentRight now I honestly do not think there's a Braveheart in the making and I would put it all on Argo if I had to. But that doesn't change my view from when I saw it in September - it's a good film, but there's nothing special about it. The story is so openly contrived to make it thrilling, that it's hard to take it serious as a movie purportedly trying to seriously represent a conflict.
I admire ZDT and Lincoln for taking less artistic latitude and turning potentially boring subjects into (to me) very thrilling narratives.
And those two have overall better performances and peripherals as well.
Argo is the most liked, the easier consensus pick though, so it makes sense that that should win.
I think the Academy voters better start thinking of what else it should win though because I'd think it would be somewhat embarrassing if it walks away with only Best Picture? Or maybe not?
JJ1
January 28, 2013 at 9:43AM EST Reply to CommentKris,
1) do you tho there can be an Argo backlash before/during voting?
2) do you think that Lawrence's win here is more indicative of SAG skewing younger? IF Riva wins at BAFTA, does she have a shot at Ocar? Has she campaigned at all? I would think that Amour being nommed for Picture and Director shows how much it is admired in the Academy.
JJ1 Damn auto correct
January 28, 2013 at 9:43AM ESTtr This belief that Riva can win isn't looking at history. Lawrence is the young, hot ingenue who's turned several good performances in recent years, and now she has strong precursor support. She's winning.
January 28, 2013 at 10:00AM ESTJJ1 Oh, I'm predicting her right now. I think she's in the lead. And she may wind up being SLPs only win. And yes, she's had an amazing couple of years.
January 28, 2013 at 10:24AM ESTThat said, if Chastain won last night, I would have considered her a fave because she'd have won SAG and BAFTA seems to have really liked ZD30. I'm just posing the question if Riva wins BAFTA if she has a chance.
DylanS
January 28, 2013 at 10:00AM EST Reply to CommentThe main question I have is if "Argo" wins Best Picture, who wins Best Director. Is it Spielberg? I don't see people giving Spielberg Best Director without also giving "Lincoln" Best Picture. Is it Ang Lee? as many have suggested, because of the technical achievement? I'm not buying it. Because the implication with Lee is that they are rewarding him on the basis of the film's Directorial merits, which is not how the Academy views the Best Director category. Even when they split with BP for BD, it's because another film was gaining momentum as a possible BP frontrunner (ex. The Pianist, Traffic) or the reverse (Shakespeare in Love, Crash). Best Director is always an extension of Best Picture. And I don't think DGA will give us any answers, as I'm sure they'll also go Affleck.
Jonnybon The direction of the Life of Pi is remarkable regardless of the technical achievement.
January 28, 2013 at 10:09AM ESTJonnybon *Life of Pi
January 28, 2013 at 10:09AM ESTJJ1 That's the most interesting question. I don't think DGA matters a hill of beans if Affleck wins it (because I now think that Argo is winning best picture). So one of the main races to watch now is .... Who wins Best Director at the Oscars.
January 28, 2013 at 10:27AM ESTYou could make several arguments for both Speilberg and Lee. Fascinating race there.
JJ1 As I type this and think about it, I'm kinda surprised that a situation like this doesn't happen more often (where an elected director of a best picture fave doesn't quite squeak in with 300 directors).
January 28, 2013 at 10:31AM ESTWho's to say that a best picture favorite that has a director nommed by the tens of thousands in the DGA wouldn't get nommed by 300 people at the Oscars. There are many strong years. And in a strong year like this where someone like Tarantino, Hooper, or PTA could also have slid in instead of Affleck and Bigelow ... Why DOESN'T it happen more often?
JJ1 Ugh, not elected, "expected"
January 28, 2013 at 10:32AM ESTRichardZ I have no real reason for this, but I "feel" that Ang Lee will take Best Director. Dunno what it is, but they just resist voting for Spielberg.
January 28, 2013 at 10:37AM ESTNot an explanation or anything, but I kinda wish Spielberg put in his usual touch to Lincoln, which felt like a movie that Spielberg had nothing to do with.
Jonnybon There have been other strong years, but not as strong as 2012 (in my humble opinion). Best Director has never been so competitive.
January 28, 2013 at 10:41AM ESTHoustonRufus Yeah, I think it's really up for grabs. I don't see it going to Spielberg. Like Richardz says, there seems to be resistance to voting for Spielberg. Of course, we still have DGA coming up. I don't think people should underestimate Haneke. If they like a foreign language movie enough to give it that many nominations, then I think he's in play. He's also revered and AMPAS would certainly add some shine to their rep by giving him Best Director.
January 28, 2013 at 11:50AM ESTdaveylo Life of Pi would not be getting Best Director for technical achievement alone. The film has affected millions around the world and not just for special effects. I think Affleck will get the DGA. I think it's Spielberg or Lee for the Oscar, perhaps Lee for BAFTA.
January 28, 2013 at 2:02PM ESTDylanS Your missing my point about "Life of Pi" and Lee for Best director. How many millions it may have effected isn't really relevant to what i'm saying, the only thing that matters with Best Director is what films are out ahead with Best Picture, which would be Argo, probably followed by Lincoln, probably followed by either Silver Linings or Life of Pi. That doesn't really pave a path for Lee to become a frontrunner. Which is why I still think Picture and Director both go to "Lincoln".
January 28, 2013 at 2:27PM ESTSilencio
January 28, 2013 at 10:34AM EST Reply to CommentMy no guts no glory Oscar picks: Life of Pi for BP, Haneke for BD, Riva for Actress and Phoenix for Actor.
/3rt In what alternate universe? I'd love a Phoenix upset and a Haneke surprise for Best Director -- if anyone's beating Lawrence it'll be a rallying cry for Chastain.
January 28, 2013 at 12:00PM ESTSilencio That's why I said "no guts no glory"
January 28, 2013 at 12:36PM ESTCaptainCanada
January 28, 2013 at 11:40AM EST Reply to CommentI can't see Lawrence losing, certainly not to Riva. She's won a ton of precursors, she's the best (perhaps only) likely win from a film the Academy clearly has a lot of time for, she's a hot young star of the kind that Hollywood likes to honour in this category, and she made a lot of people a lot of money this year.
HoustonRufus I feel like I can't get a read on Riva's chances for some reason. I'll be curious to hear if Kris is hearing some strong buzz from voters.
January 28, 2013 at 11:46AM ESTHoustonRufus
January 28, 2013 at 11:43AM EST Reply to CommentAfter some serious curveballs in the beginning, the season is settling into predictability--not really a complaint, just an observation. Maybe it's just because I got lucky last night with my predictions, with the exception of TLJ for Supp Actor. I guess I'm just not so stunned at Argo's success this past weekend. It seems written in the stars at this point.
I'll be curious to see if there will be any current changes in the coming weeks, but Argo looks golden. One category I am puzzing over is Adapted Screenplay. Could argo be strong enough to win that over Lincoln? I would have never expected that a couple months ago. But now I wonder . . .
RichardZ
January 28, 2013 at 12:36PM EST Reply to CommentWhen was the last time a role like JLaw's in SLP got an Oscar? The closest one I can think of recently goes as far back as Helen Hunt in As Good As It Gets. It's a comedic role, really. Romantic comedy complete with passing notes like eight graders and a "misunderstanding"...I don't care how much they shade to be anything else other than...
Give the RomCom awards to Meg Ryan and Nora Ephron, and maybe we'll seriously talk about Jennifer Lawrence in SLP. I loved her in Winter's Bone, but I cannot endorse this.
;-) taking this waaay to seriously.
KT
January 28, 2013 at 12:37PM EST Reply to CommentKris: I'm not sure the Argo-Apollo 13 comparison works for me. 1995 was a completely DIFFERENT voting system (plus, there was heavy heavy support in the Academy to award Mel Gibson, another more popular actor turned director). AND MORE IMPORTANTLY—No PREFERENTIAL BALLOT for PGA OR Oscar Best Picture that year. That fact, I’m afraid, decides the outcome for ARGO. The Best Picture race is DONE, OVER. I can see NO OTHER FILM can beat it with the preferential ballot. The PGA Award with this new system has matched 100% with Oscar Best Picture since installed in 2010: Hurt Locker, King’s Speech, Artist. Argo will join that list. Winning SAG ensemble just shows the enormous support for this film.
I’m thinking more and more that David O. Russell will win Best Director. HUGE HUGE SUPPORT from Actors. 7 acting nominations over his past 2 films!!! This will be a sure thing, once Ben Affleck wins the DGA.
Hans Not to mention just the profoundly different AGE we are living in from 1995. Social media, buzz, more avenues for Affleck's snub to resonate in to create a groundswell of support. Then again, the Academy is old, white men, so maybe some things never change.
January 28, 2013 at 2:11PM ESTKristopher Tapley I agree on all but the Russell thing. Preferential ballot is key.
January 28, 2013 at 2:40PM ESTKT Keep waiting for you and Anne to discuss Best Director, but don't think you've really talked through that category yet. I know she supports Ang Lee, who I love, but Best Director is a shitfest. I just have this strange feeling David O. Russell can win. Combination of Actor's branch support without Affleck; against two previous winners and not being recognized yet; people like his films...where can they recognize him?? screenplay and actress very close; and SLP was made for his bipolar son (as JLaw conveniently reminded us last night).
January 28, 2013 at 3:05PM ESTKristopher Tapley His son is actually autistic. That keeps getting conflated (seemingly willfully) this season.
January 28, 2013 at 3:58PM ESTKyle J. Do they only do the preferential ballot for Best Picture or do they do it for the other categories too? Best Director?
January 28, 2013 at 5:36PM ESTKyle J.
January 28, 2013 at 5:35PM EST Reply to CommentI'm still completely baffled as to how Affleck wasn't nominated for the Best Director Oscar. You're right though Kris, lots of directors (including Ron Howard for Apollo 13) have been shunned from the lineup.
Still, my top pick for biggest nomination snub ever is Martin Scorsese as Best Director for Taxi Driver. Paul Schrader's script wasn't nominated either. Blows my mind.