Ben Affleck's 'Argo' wins three BAFTA Awards, including Best Film and Best Director
'Les Misérables' wins four and Emmanuelle Riva slows down the J-Law train
Quentin Tarantino backstage at the 2013 BAFTA Awards after winning Best Original Screenplay
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The BAFTA Awards went down tonight in London and it's a big moment in the race. As Guy reminded yesterday in his predictions column, the organization has tailored its process closer to the Academy's, eliminating branch-voted winners in favor of allowing all members to vote throughout the categories. The result could be some powerful Oscar foreshadowing.
Check out the full list of winners below. Along with each winner I've offered up my thoughts as a running commentary as the show progressed. In a nutshell, though, the new system yielded very few big surprises, though there were one or two eyebrow raisers in the bunch.
Circle on back later tonight as Guy will put a bow on the festivities with his own postmortem, after he wraps up his daily Berlin Film Festival duties. And, as always, keep track of all the ups and downs of the 2012-2013 film awards season via The Circuit.
Best British Film: "Skyfall"
Comments: Well, but of course. The most successful film ever in the UK was bound to take this prize, despite the presence of something like "Les Misérables." And with the latest Bond missing out on a Best Film nomination, this was sure to be its consolation. Ben Affleck and Bradley Cooper presented the award.
Best Short Film: "Swimmer"; Best Short Animation: "The Making of Longbird"
Comments: These categories share zero nominees with their Oscar counterparts and I've seen none of them, so I can't really offer up much here. Though "Swimmer" comes from the brilliant Lynne Ramsay. Rafe Spall and Helen McRory presented the awards.
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Best Costume Design: "Anna Karenina"
Comments: And that's probably our Oscar winner, too. I've been wondering lately, though, whether the more seen and loved "Les Misérables" could steal both this and Best Production Design, though. Nevertheless, here's an example of a wide body of voters going with Joe Wright's film and Jacqueline Durran's gorgeous work. Ben Wishaw and Alice Eve presented the award.
Best Makeup and Hair: "Les Misérables"
Comments: See above. My instinct when the Oscar nominations were announced was that "Les Misérables" was sure to take this. Then I went over to the side of "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey." Then even to "Hitchcock." Lately I've been leaning back toward "Les Misérables" and this is clear indication that it could pull it off. The film beats out its Oscar competition at the BAFTAs.
Best Animated Film: "Brave"
Comments: Remember, there were only three nominees, and one of them wasn't "Wreck-It Ralph." Nevertheless, as Anne and I discussed at length in the podcast Friday, Pixar really is some stiff competition for Disney's in-house marvel. Don't be surprised if it wins the Oscar, too.
Best Sound: "Les Misérables"
Comments: I'm very intrigued by the sound mixing category at the Oscars this year (the BAFTAs combine mixing and editing under the banner of "Best Sound"). "Les Misérables" could pull it out as the big musical nominated for Best Picture, just as "Chicago" and "Ray" before it, as well as "Dreamgirls," which wasn't nominated for Best Picture. Or "Skyfall" could squeeze in some more love like "The Bourne Ultimatum." More and more, though, it appears the former is more likely.
Best Film Editing: "Argo"
Comments: That probably seals it for the film's shot at the Best Film award later tonight. If "Life of Pi" was going to be a big threat I imagine it may have won this, but we'll see. "Argo" should be considered the favorite for the Oscar in this category, too, and lovely that William Goldenberg will grab an award when he's also in the mix for another tight piece of work editing some of the most suspenseful sequences of "Zero Dark Thirty." Jeremy Irvine and Olga Kurylenko presented this and Best Sound.
Best Cinematography: "Life of Pi"
Comments: And I imagine Claudio Miranda will win the ASC Award tonight as well, en route to Oscar in a few weeks. Nothing much more to say about it. Roger Deakins looks likely to wait it out a bit longer. "Zero Dark Thirty" star Mark Strong presented the award.
Best Original Music: "Skyfall"
Comments: Well, even with the homeland pride, that's a bit of a surprise. Thomas Newman, Oscarless to date, picks up his second BAFTA to date. He also won on his first nomination, for "American Beauty" (which fell to "The Red Violin" at the Oscars). David Morrissey and Paloma Faith presented the award
Best Original Screenplay: "Django Unchained"
Comments: This is a bit of a surprise, given that "Amour" was probably even more favored here than at the Oscars. That shifts up the dynamic just a little bit. Maybe Quentin Tarantino is gunning for Oscar number two? "Lincoln" star Sally Field presented the award.
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February 10, 2013 at 3:50PM EST Reply to Comment"likely to wait it out a bit longer"? Wake up, Kris. Deakins is NEVER winning an Oscar. Dude's cursed.
JLPatt
February 10, 2013 at 4:04PM EST Reply to CommentThat will be just embarrassing if Tarantino wins for "Django Unchained," especially if he can't win for far superior work in "Inglourious Basterds."
Jonnybon I love Basterds but I think Django is just about the better film.
February 10, 2013 at 4:15PM ESTKristopher Tapley Agree with Jonny.
February 10, 2013 at 4:26PM ESTJLPatt I just don't get how you reward that screenplay. It's structurally all over the place, characters are only half-developed, if that, and you have episodes like the KKK mask scene that, while hilarious on its own, serves absolutely zero purpose in the overarching narrative. Even Tarantino admitted this was just a first draft!
February 10, 2013 at 4:37PM ESTKristopher Tapley Pretty damn good first draft. I think it gets sloppy at the end, but that's in the editing, not the script. Things breathe more int he script. Granted, the script isn't on the screen in full, but it clearly was meant to be.
February 10, 2013 at 4:40PM ESTGeorge Kaplan The final version is pretty close to that draft. I think the problem with the film is that the showdown with Calvin Candie goes on much longer in the movie than it did on the page, leading to the feeling that it should be the end of the movie.
February 10, 2013 at 4:46PM ESTI break down most of the big changes from the script here: http://www.cinema-ramblings.com/2013/02/script-to-screen-django-unchained.html
The Dude I agree that Basterds is by far a superior movie; every moment there is carefully thought and well constructed, and the climax is probably the most cathartic since Dogville.
February 10, 2013 at 8:07PM ESTPlus, Hans Landa is one of the most interesting villains in the history of film.
Django is pretty good, but it has it's fair share of problems, and could have easily been 15-20 minutes shorter.
That said, I wouldn't mind if it won, although it isn't as good as Amour or Moonrise Kingdom.
Kristopher Tapley Could easily have been 15-20 minutes longer, actually.
February 10, 2013 at 8:23PM ESTJonnybon Agree with Kris.
February 10, 2013 at 8:25PM ESTChris138 I also agree with Jonny and Kris that Django is a lot better than Basterds.
February 10, 2013 at 8:47PM ESTGeorge Kaplan Can't agree. DJANGO is a great film. But BASTERDS is damn near perfect.
February 10, 2013 at 9:13PM ESTm1 "I just don't get how you reward that screenplay. It's structurally all over the place, characters are only half-developed..."
February 10, 2013 at 10:18PM ESTWow, I haven't seen Django, but that sounds a lot like Inglourious Basterds.
DylanS I actually put "Basterds" and "Django" as scripts on a pretty similar level, but I find "Basterds" to be a more superior film because it's the least fussy direction of Tarantino's career (except "Jackie Brown", which I have other problems with). He couldn't carry that over into "Django", where the number of pop-song set pieces (many of which felt bizarre and completely out of place, and not in a cool way) started to really pile up when what he needed to do was keep things moving. There was only one such moment in "Basterds", with David Bowie's "Cat People", and it actually felt proper and earned in that case. There was some restraint showed with "Basterds" that I never felt with "Django", but the script for "Django" is terrific and the performances fully realized, so I still think it's a very good film at the end of the day.
February 10, 2013 at 11:36PM ESTPaul Outlaw
February 10, 2013 at 4:09PM EST Reply to CommentThe way this is going ::ugh:: Jennifer Lawrence should be relaxing right about now.
Paul Outlaw I so love being wrong about this one. Riva, Riva, Riva!
February 10, 2013 at 5:23PM ESTGab
February 10, 2013 at 4:21PM EST Reply to CommentGood to see the BBC giving BAFTA the full respect, showing Call the Midwife instead.
daveylo
February 10, 2013 at 4:24PM EST Reply to CommentHard to argue with many of these choices right now. Except perhaps music and even that, you like Thomas Newman getting an award.
Paul Outlaw Funny, I'd find it easy to argue with several of them. Most of them.
February 10, 2013 at 4:34PM ESTdaveylo Paul, I meant more that there not all that surprising or that awful. What would you like changed. But I take back what I said now that the screenplay wins have happened.
February 10, 2013 at 4:40PM ESTPaul Outlaw Well, Davey, start with the screenplays...
February 10, 2013 at 4:47PM ESTGeorge Kaplan
February 10, 2013 at 4:31PM EST Reply to CommentLES MISERABLES for Best Sound? Best Noise maybe.
JLPatt The mixing of the live singing with the score and various diegetic sounds, including vivid aural war elements, is masterful.
February 10, 2013 at 4:40PM ESTKristopher Tapley ^^^
February 10, 2013 at 4:40PM ESTYes.
George Kaplan We have very different ideas about what the term "masterful" means I guess. I suppose the film was always screwed because of the choice to do "live" singing and the poor technicians shouldn't be blamed for Tom Hooper's terrible creative decisions. Fair enough.
February 10, 2013 at 4:48PM ESTDylanS Oh, If there's one thing I'm looking forward to after this Oscar season is over, it will be the incessant whining from the die-hard haters of "Les Mis". JLPATT is totally right here, I'm not an expert, but I imagine it was an incredibly complex task trying to mix those aural elements together, and I thought that part of the film actually worked pretty seamlessly. I imagine it will repeat at the Oscars with "Skyfall" taking Sound Editing.
February 10, 2013 at 11:41PM ESTCinemateo
February 10, 2013 at 4:32PM EST Reply to CommentWhoa - Silver Linings for adapted. So both screenplay awards went to films NOT up for Best Film.
a
February 10, 2013 at 4:33PM EST Reply to CommentThe SAG awards for Jones is no blip. Especially in light of his other wins.
Kristopher Tapley His other wins were critics prizes. That doesn't really figure. And anyway, by "blip" I meant the moment when it was indicative of him being the frontrunner. He could still win, though. Up in the air.
February 10, 2013 at 4:41PM ESTEdwin He could still easily win, as the SAG is typically the best predictor of the Oscar, but frankly, that SAG win was probably the one thing that kept him alive in this race. Losing the Golden Globe, BFCA, and now BAFTA does not make for a strong frontrunner. If Jones is indeed the frontrunner based solely on his SAG win--and maybe he is--then it's only by a small margin. This is still anyone's game. The only win that would surprise me would be Alan Arkin.
February 10, 2013 at 4:47PM ESTKristopher Tapley Typically? Seems to me they get it wrong often.
February 10, 2013 at 5:01PM ESTEdwin I just did some quick research and found that the SAG winner in this category went on to win the Oscar in 7 out of the last 10 years, whereas the Golden Globe matched Oscar 8 for 10, and the BAFTA matched Oscar a mere 5 for 10. So really, it looks like the Golden Globe has been the best predictor in recent history by a small margin, and even the BAFTA is 50/50 in this category, it certainly doesn't hurt Waltz, that's for sure. He's got to be the statistical frontrunner right now, even though I'm still not feeling it.
February 10, 2013 at 5:10PM ESTKristopher Tapley I stand corrected then. Is it supporting actress that is often off?
February 10, 2013 at 5:12PM ESTBlip Supporting Actor and Director are the two Oscar categories where we're not going to have a clue what will win till it's announced. Anyone but Arkin seems possible to me. I know Kris has floated the idea that Arkin is possible but I can't see how unless Argo sweeps everything it's nominated for.
February 10, 2013 at 5:25PM ESTDylanS Something tells me it's going to be a big surprise win for Hoffman at the Oscars. We know the actors liked the film, at least enough to give Phoenix and Adams nominations as well, and I think in the chaos of that category, he gives the kind of performance that rises above. It'll be interesting to see.
February 10, 2013 at 11:45PM ESTMr.F
February 10, 2013 at 4:34PM EST Reply to CommentHarvey may not be winning Best Picture at the Oscars this year, but he sure as hell ain't going down without taking most, if not all, of the other major prizes.
Edwin
February 10, 2013 at 4:45PM EST Reply to CommentFingers crossed that the Adapted Screenplay win for "Silver Linings" was a consolation prize for Jennifer Lawrence losing Best Actress to Emmanuelle Riva. Haneke's loss in Original Screenplay isn't reassuring though.
Paul Outlaw Prepare for disappointment. I have.
February 10, 2013 at 4:52PM ESTPaul Outlaw HALLELUJAH!!!!!! No disappointment!
February 10, 2013 at 5:22PM ESTJohn G.
February 10, 2013 at 4:50PM EST Reply to CommentI'd go even further than calling Christoph Waltz a co-lead. I think he's the true lead of the film, with Jamie Foxx supporting him.
Isaac No way! You can argue Christoph Waltz is a co-lead (I'm not buying it), but this is Django's story from beginning to end, from the time he gets bought by Dr. Schultz to rescuing his wife, he's the hero that gets to ride into the sunset (Django Unchained is a Tarantino-style Western after all)....
February 10, 2013 at 9:37PM ESTJohn G. Django becomes the hero at the end. Dr. Schultz, however, drives the story from the first scene to the climactic scene, he has more dialogue and screen time than Django, and nearly all the character development is devoted to him.
February 10, 2013 at 9:54PM ESTdaveylo
February 10, 2013 at 5:21PM EST Reply to CommentSo happy for Riva. Though she wasn't there, was she? And Jean-Louis Trintignant deserves a piece of that award.
/3rt
February 10, 2013 at 5:24PM EST Reply to CommentGrateful Lawrence was defeated but disappointed that Chastain didn't get the boost necessary for an Oscar upset.
PaulinJapan I second that motion. Jessica is is need of some loving; hopefully it will come Oscar night but that is looking increasingly unlikely.
February 10, 2013 at 10:03PM ESTMon Amour
February 10, 2013 at 5:37PM EST Reply to CommentIf Riva wins the Oscar, Kris is going to have the same reaction as Bobby "The Brain" Heenan at the 8 minute mark of this clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFQEUiN4-G8
Kristopher Tapley Hahahaha. Fuckin' A. 1992 for life.
February 10, 2013 at 5:46PM ESTloyal_mehnert
February 10, 2013 at 5:44PM EST Reply to CommentI'm a fan of Argo. It's a fun, well-made breezy film, but I'm hoping this BP/BD win turns the tide against it and creates a backlash amoungst AMPAS voters. Enough already.
Kristopher Tapley And yet, would it deserve that? Merely because there is a glut of awards presentations? To receive a "backlash" for doing well along the way? Weird logic.
February 10, 2013 at 5:48PM ESTMaybe the answer -- and I know, this is crazy -- is LESS awards presentations. Maybe the fatigue of this contender or that wouldn't set in? Just an idea...
February 10, 2013 at 5:55PM ESTI realize movie awards are really about narratives and momentum and campaigning but considering Argo's competition, it's shocking that top accolades weren't spread around this season.
Kristopher Tapley It's not at ALL shocking. It's tough to sell to a broad group and films like Argo and Silver Linings Playbook have the ingredients to do so.
February 10, 2013 at 6:02PM ESTKristopher Tapley It's maybe UNFORTUNATE that top accolades weren't spread around, but it's not SHOCKING.
February 10, 2013 at 6:02PM ESTPaul Outlaw But isn't Loyal merely saying the same thing you did after "Searching for Sugar Man" won its BAFTA, Kris?
February 10, 2013 at 6:04PM ESTKristopher Tapley Not really. He's saying it's shocking. I'm saying it's unfortunate. And I'm not hoping for backlash against it, either. I haven't said anything about Sugar Man, really, until today.
February 10, 2013 at 6:08PM ESTPaul Outlaw I only meant his original post that you responded to.
February 10, 2013 at 6:09PM ESTPaul Outlaw As in "I like it, but enough already."
February 10, 2013 at 6:10PM EST
February 10, 2013 at 6:13PM ESTHoustonRufus
February 10, 2013 at 5:50PM EST Reply to CommentThrilled for Riva! The Best Actress category will be the one I'm watching most closely come oscar night.
Andrej
February 10, 2013 at 6:14PM EST Reply to CommentI'm with you on The Imposter, Kris. I thought it was kinda tasteless with all the drama and glam.
Also, I'm pretty baffled on the production design award to Les Mis. It's got some inspiredly grim bits -- like the God of War-esque port from the beggining, but... yeah. Its cinematography doens't help in showcasing it.
daveylo I, too, am baffled by the production design award because we couldn't see a lot of the sets. Also puzzled by the music award.
February 10, 2013 at 6:55PM ESTPaul2013
February 10, 2013 at 6:42PM EST Reply to CommentNo change in the Best Actress race. Fact: SAG CHOSE NOT TO NOMINATE RIVA. That tells me something and not any of it good. This is Lawrence's Oscar to lose. Move along, nothing to see here. They're not going to award two French actors in a row. AMPAS is not that bonkers, not that suicidal.
daveylo I don't think Riva's slight at SAG means anything. Many SAG members probably hadn't seen Riva's performance when the ballots were due. Oscar voters won't have that problem. I don't think anyone cares that Riva is French if they watch Amour. What does voting for a French actor have to do with being suicidal?
February 10, 2013 at 6:53PM ESTLiz They awarded two Spanish actors in a row (Bardem in 2007 and Cruz in 2008). How is that any different? The idea that they won't vote for another French actor in an entirely different category makes no sense at all.
February 10, 2013 at 7:12PM ESTPaul Outlaw If Riva doesn't win, it will not be because of her nationality. It will all come down to not enough people seeing the performance and/or the campaigns.
February 10, 2013 at 7:19PM ESTKristopher Tapley "No change in the Best Actress race."
February 10, 2013 at 7:22PM ESTYou can still predict Lawrence or Chastain and understand that that statement is foolish.
Kristopher Tapley Also, "suicidal?" "Bonkers?" Xenophobic much?
February 10, 2013 at 7:23PM ESTHans I still dunno. There have been 18 SAG Award ceremonies, meaning 72 sets of (film) acting nominees, and only once did a category of acting nominees not have the eventual Oscar winner among them (Marcia Gay Harden). Even Argo has better numbers than that to win BP.
February 10, 2013 at 7:42PM ESTLiz And before Harden won, that type of win had NEVER happened. So if it can happen with no prior history behind it, certainly it can happen now that there's a precedent.
February 10, 2013 at 8:11PM ESTHistory is a good thing to look at in predictions, of course, but there's always the slight risk of missing the forest for the trees.
Manny Lawrence is still winning the Oscar. Everyone knew Riva would take the BAFTA, no big revelation there when she won. I have seen all five performances and Lawrence's was hands down the best. Her campaigning and Riva's failure to show up, have doomed her chances. She should act like she cares, then maybe her winning would seem like a possibility.
February 10, 2013 at 8:29PM ESTKristopher Tapley Hans: Haven't we learned to stop looking at the stats yet this season?
February 10, 2013 at 8:33PM ESTManny: Uh, very few were betting on Riva. And anyway your whole comment ends up REALLY fucking absurd when you get around to demanding an 85-year-old woman show up to a ceremony and that her failure to do so means she doesn't care. But -- you think Lawrence was hands down the best, so we get where you're coming from.
daveylo Have to think age was a factor here in Riva not appearing. She may not make the Oscars for the same reason. I think she will be at the Oscars unless she's ill. But Peggy Ashcroft didn't show for her Oscar and she won anyway.
February 10, 2013 at 8:41PM ESTKristopher Tapley She actually said she will be at the Cesars and the Oscars.
February 10, 2013 at 8:44PM ESTLiz I'm pretty sure that even Jeff Wells would think that criticizing an 85-year-old for not campaigning was stupid.
February 10, 2013 at 9:12PM ESTydgmdlu See my other comment below... BAFTA is better at predicting Best Actress than SAG. Remember Marion Cotillard, Kate Winslet (not nominated by SAG for The Reader), and Meryl Streep (for The Iron Lady)? The SAG winners for those years were Julie Christie, Meryl Streep (for Doubt), and Viola Davis.
February 10, 2013 at 10:53PM ESTManny Kristopher, thank you for responding to my comment. Just because Riva is 85 doesn't mean she can't go out and campaign; look at Betty White, she's always out and about (she's 92). And yeah, I preferred Lawrence's performance because it was poignant, volatile, engaging, honest and heartbreaking. The others had their moments, especially Riva, but I saw that performance already with Julie Christie in Away From Her, who did it better. Lawrence is taking the Oscar.
February 10, 2013 at 10:55PM ESTGuy Lodge "Just because Riva is 85 doesn't mean she can't go out and campaign; look at Betty White, she's always out and about (she's 92)."
February 10, 2013 at 11:05PM ESTGee, it's almost as if some people are made differently from others.
Andrej Kudos on Betty White, but still: she's always out and about because all the awards she gets nominated for are handed out in her home country. This advantage makes the comparison to Emmanuelle Riva kinda unfair.
February 10, 2013 at 11:05PM ESTKristopher Tapley Pretty sure Betty White hasn't been "out and about" all over Europe.
February 10, 2013 at 11:48PM ESTManny It seems like you all are so enthralled by Riva because of all your pathetic excuses for her crass behavior. It's so sweet that you all were rooting for her win at the Bafta's! May the best performance win at the Oscars, that will be Lawrence in case you couldn't figure it out.
February 10, 2013 at 11:55PM ESTydgmdlu Manny, I would love to see your reaction when Riva wins the Oscar.
February 11, 2013 at 12:20AM ESTIs Lawrence's performance FACTUALLY, OBJECTIVELY better than Riva's? I don't think so. These things are subjective. What's with all of the Riva hate? "Poignant, volatile, engaging, honest and heartbreaking," Riva was none of those things? You could find countless examples of Lawrence's type of performance; it's nothing new, no matter how good it may be.
Paul2013 "If Riva doesn't win, it will not be because of her nationality. It will all come down to not enough people seeing the performance and/or the campaigns."
February 11, 2013 at 2:31AM ESTAmour's been out for a couple months, almost, and moviegoers are simply not opting to see it. It's earned just $3m so far. The subject matter may be a reason why folks haven't embraced it. Would you, if you just lost a parent, loved one or friend like I have?
ADL "…pathetic excuses for her CRASS behaviour."
February 11, 2013 at 2:48AM ESTNow you're just being a troll. Someone not showing up for an awards show is considered crass? I would love to see your definition of crass, I'm not convinced you know what it means.
Graysmith
February 10, 2013 at 6:55PM EST Reply to CommentThe more awards Argo has picked up since the Oscar nominations were announced, the worse I feel for Ben Affleck. At the time of the nominations, Argo didn't really seem like it'd be the Best Picture winner, it didn't really seem like it was in the race. But now, now I really feel for the guy. Even if he'll probably walk home with an Oscar for producing the film, I do feel bad that he doesn't get to compete for Best Director.
daveylo Why should anyone feel bad for Affleck? I think we should be pitying all the other losing directors.
February 10, 2013 at 7:41PM ESTCaptainCanada
February 10, 2013 at 7:27PM EST Reply to CommentWaltz winning Supporting Actor seems more and more possible. Which would be rather remarkable, really. After "Inglourious Basterds", which was essentially his debut as far as most of the world was concerned, he's made only three more movies, none of them really notable (though through no fault of his). It's a slender resume for a two-time Oscar-winner, particularly a two-time male Oscar winner, where there's always more roles available to compete with. The closest comparison would probably be Hilary Swank, who won two Oscars (deservedly, in my opinion) for what are basically the only two movies she's been in that people really care about.
Depending on how the dice fall, multiple films could win more Oscars than a BP-winning "Argo", which most people see as topping out at BP, Editing, and Screenplay (real wildcard would be an Arkin win, but I don't think that's on the table). Conversely, you could (as the BAFTAs did) give "Les Miserables" Supporting Actress, Sounding Mixing, Production Design, and Makeup; and "Life of Pi" could easily come away with Visual Effects (done deal), Cinematography, and some combination of Score, Sounding Editing, and Director.
CaptainCanada Waltz made three movies between the two Tarantino films, I mean.
February 10, 2013 at 7:29PM ESTdaveylo What you just said makes a case for Waltz not winning the Oscar this year. He hasn't been around very long. But if he hadn't been nominated in the wrong category, he wouldn't be winning.
February 10, 2013 at 7:43PM ESTEdwin "Argo" could win Best Score too, I think. The fact that there really hasn't been a clear favorite in this category leaves it fairly open, and since "Argo" is the Best Picture frontrunner, that gives it a boost there, not to mention the fact that Desplat has yet to win an Oscar. I'm still predicting "Life of Pi" in that category, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if "Argo" won.
February 10, 2013 at 8:09PM ESTEither way, I definitely think "Argo" is winning something else besides Best Picture. I think it's a solid frontrunner for Best Editing now. The question will be if it can also win Adapted Screenplay and/or Score.
daveylo Unless the Academy wants to throw any award to Argo, I don't think score is happening. You don't leave Argo thinking about the score at all. Life of Pi and Lincoln have a much better chance. Thinking picture, screenplay, editing for Argo.
February 10, 2013 at 8:38PM ESTThe Dude
February 10, 2013 at 7:56PM EST Reply to CommentI'm convinced now that either Argo will pull a Slumdog Millionaire/ROTK and win almost every award it's nominated... or backlash will make it go home empty-handed.
But my guess it's the former.
daveylo I think it's somewhere in between there.
February 10, 2013 at 8:39PM ESTConor There's no Argo backlash... But they'll spread the love as they have past couple years.
February 10, 2013 at 9:50PM ESTHoustonRufus
February 10, 2013 at 8:47PM EST Reply to CommentSo does anyone think Affleck could still win director through a write in vote? I'm starting to believe anything is possible with this movie.
CaptainCanada Write-ins aren't allowed under the current system.
February 10, 2013 at 10:50PM ESTydgmdlu
February 10, 2013 at 10:45PM EST Reply to CommentEven though stats are being routinely dismissed in this "strange" year, one thing that's worth noting is how good BAFTA is at predicting the Oscar for Best Actress. Going all the way back to 2000, the BAFTA winner has matched the Oscar winner every time, except for when the Oscar winner was not nominated by BAFTA in the same year (e.g. Halle Berry, Hilary Swank, Sandra Bullock).
BAFTA foreshadowed the wins for Marion Cotillard, Kate Winslet, and Meryl Streep in contentious years when SAG awarded someone else (Julie Christie, Meryl Streep, and Viola Davis, respectively). In fact, those BAFTA wins were precisely what persuaded some prognosticators to change their predictions. So BAFTA predicts Oscar better than SAG in the Best Actress category (but Best Actor, not so much).
The Oscar lead actress nominees not nominated for BAFTA this year are Quvenzhane Wallis and Naomi Watts, both of whom everyone agrees have the least chances of winning. To assess Emmanuelle Riva's Oscar chances based on SAG is unfair; Amour's five nominations, all in major categories, not only indicates an unexpected amount of Academy love, but they also mean that Amour is a "must-watch" movie for voters, who may not have had the same motivation or awareness when deciding the SAG nominations.
Kristopher Tapley I'm glad to see people are catching up to this. :)
February 10, 2013 at 11:50PM ESTDylanS this is a very telling line of logic, thank you YDGMDLU for pointing it out. I've been predicting Chastain for sometime, but it was more a prediction of "not Jennifer Lawrence", I love Lawrence in SLP but I just can't imagine her winning an Oscar for it. I think Riva beats her on gravitas and I've come around to predicting her, but let the record show, Trintignant has been soooo unfairly overshadowed in all of this. He's at the very least an equally impressive performance, if not even better.
February 11, 2013 at 12:08AM ESTydgmdlu Thanks Kris, I'd hoped you would notice. :-)
February 11, 2013 at 12:23AM ESTMatt
February 10, 2013 at 11:23PM EST Reply to CommentI'm wondering if the fact that Brave is set in Scotland had any influence on the voting. I am still hoping that Brave won't win Oscar.
Kristopher Tapley
February 11, 2013 at 2:54PM EST Reply to CommentYay 100 comments. :)