In two decades, the only years the SAG winners matched up 100% with the Academy's individual acting category winners were 2010, 2009 and 2004. Sometimes it's because the early deadline rears its head. For instance, the SAG nominating committee didn't fully catch up to "Django Unchained" last year, so they didn't even nominate eventual Oscar winner Christoph Waltz. Other times, it's category placement that causes a shift; Kate Winslet being nominated in and winning supporting for "The Reader" but going on to win lead at the Oscars. Still others, it's because the buzz wave has a certain shape to it, Oscar winners like Alan Arkin and Judi Dench supplanting SAG champs like Eddie Murphy and Kathy Bates.
So it's a fair bet that tonight's winners (with the ensemble prize subbing for "Best Picture," even though the guild doesn't quite view it that way all that time) won't all be holding matching Oscars in their hands in March. Nevertheless, I think this year might just go that way, at least in the individual acting categories, because the line-up is beginning to settle in as a sure quartet.