Summer Box Office Predictions: 'Transformers: Dark of the Moon,' 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows,' 'Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides'
Which expected hits don't make our top ten?
Robots, a Wizard and a Pirate shall lead them...
After a horrible start to 2011, Hollywood's powerbrokers have a lot riding on the summer movie season. The industry needs some big movies and more importantly, good movies, to convince the American public to return to their local cineplex. Happily, there are some major original contenders on the release schedule which could help their cause. J.J. Abrams "Super 8" and comedies such as "Horrible Bosses," "Bad Teacher" and "30 Minutes or Less" all have a shot to break out. And yet, it would be surprising if any of those pictures crack the top ten in grosses. Moviegoers may say they want something "new," but sequels will once again dominate the season. With that in mind, check out HitFix's projected top ten grossers of the summer.*
*Note: "Fast Five" could crack $250 million, but was technically released in the industry's spring period. Hollywood's summer movie season begins with May 1 and ends on Labor Day weekend.
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Login or create a HitFix account Login SignupAJ Crews
May 5, 2011 at 2:15PM EST Reply to CommentGood list and analysis but no Captain America...?
May 5, 2011 at 2:17PM ESTAJ Crews Fair enough! I think it perhaps has potential to be a bigger hit than that - it's certainly (in my opinion) an easier sell than Thor - or am I overestimating the character's general appeal to the American public?
May 5, 2011 at 4:32PM ESTNick
May 5, 2011 at 3:48PM EST Reply to Commentno way... Captian will make over $150 million. Mark my words.
Grammar Nerd
May 5, 2011 at 4:34PM EST Reply to Comment"Lightening" never strikes twice... but "lightning" could. (Hangover II)
jeff
May 5, 2011 at 5:20PM EST Reply to CommentWhat about Xmen 1st Class?
Co Yes, I think both 'X-Men' and 'Captain America' will do better than 125 million...
May 5, 2011 at 6:32PM ESTChuckCobra
May 5, 2011 at 7:14PM EST Reply to CommentWTF Captain America!? X-men!? This list is lame.
Shaun
May 5, 2011 at 10:10PM EST Reply to CommentThis is indeed a lame list... Captain America will do at least as well as Thor, if the reviews are good. The previews certainly looked better than Thor's, and the character has more name recognition. I hesitate to suggest that recent world events might boost the movie's profile, since there's simply no connection between the two (not to mention, Cap was never a jingoistic, political lapdog), but who can say? Anyhow, if it doesn't suck (and I'm confident with it won't) it's got a shot at 200 million. Who expected Iron Man to hit like it did back in 2008? Cap will do at least as well as The Incredible Hulk did. At least.
X-Men: First Class is a tougher call... After X3 and Wolverine, the X-Men franchise is damaged goods. No major draws in the cast either (unless you count Kevin Bacon, and I don't). But, as the article points out, the crappy Wolverine still made $185 million, and X3 did big numbers too. If this one's good (I'm intrigued) it might be a big hit. Then again, it might get buried in the hype surrounding Thor and Cap.
Green Lantern's more of a wild card IMO...Sure, there's a following and it's true that the comic is doing pretty well. But even the top selling comics only move 500,000 copies a month at best. Characters like Batman and Spidey are still more household names than GL. It's neither character's fault that their books are lousy these days (I stopped buying them, and Batman's my favorite) and not terribly accessible to new readers. GL, however, has been the focal point of major DC events the past few years, making it a top seller. But Bats, Supes, and Spidey are still the classic characters.
Anyhow, even though the GL trailers have gotten better the stench of that first one, with Blake Lively's hideous acting, is still fresh in my mind. That lame costume and mask haven't gotten any better either. I still think Ryan Reynolds is also terribly miscast. He'd have been a good (Wally West) Flash, but he's just NOT Hal Jordan.
I think GL will do well, and I hope it turns out better than it looks, but if it does suck it might drop off quickly.
Shaun
May 5, 2011 at 10:24PM EST Reply to CommentOne more comment... I think Harry Potter will be #1 this summer. I know that there's (inexplicably) an audience for Transformers. I don't know who these people are, but I realize they're out there. Considering how reviled Ttransformers 2 was, however, I can see Trans3 wearing out its welcome.
Harry, however, is still going strong and Deathly Hallows Part 1 was well received. Some (probably people who don't know the book) found it a bit slow, but I thought it was incredibly faithful to the material and easily my favorite since Prisoner of Azkaban.
This is the last one (duh), and WB will pull out all the stops. The most recent trailer was a mind-blower, the acton quotient will be much higher, and people are excited to see the final battle for Hogwarts play out on the big screen. Add in the higher ticket prices for 3D, which Hallows Part 1 didn't have going for it, and I think Harry's a shoo-in for $300 million +.
Dunno if it'll top the numbers of the first HP movie or not, but remember that was a very kid-friendly/family-friendly movie. The series has gotten a lot darker and more grown-up. It's a credit to the series - both in books and in film - that its fanbase has remained so large and fervent. Of course, it's just great stuff... So maybe that's not such a surprise? It won't be a surprise, however, if Deathly Hallows ends up being the biggest film in the series.
May 5, 2011 at 10:30PM EST Reply to CommentWAYYYYYYYYYYYY TOO CONSERVATIVE
May 5, 2011 at 10:32PM ESTDarth Tigris Agreeeeed. I've never been more excited about a summer season and plan to see like 10 movies which is just crazy. Fast Five proved people are itching to go back to the movies.
May 5, 2011 at 11:41PM ESTExpect a number of $200+ mil movies, and ones left off the list such as Super 8, Captain America and X-Men: First Class to compete way more than we see here.
I remember these in Premiere magazine every year and how way off they were in the end, lol.
May 6, 2011 at 9:32AM EST Reply to CommentCaptain America should be on this list. He is more recognizable to non comic book fans than Thor or Green Lantern and should get at least around what Thor gets.
b_rad
May 6, 2011 at 10:12PM EST Reply to CommentIt'll be fun to see how wrong these are in 4 months.
AJ Harper
May 8, 2011 at 12:08AM EST Reply to CommentI'm pretty sure Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1 will be a smash at the box office. not saying it will be good, but i know for a fact it will make a lot of money
May 9, 2011 at 12:18AM EST
May 9, 2011 at 12:20AM EST Reply to CommentInteresting list, but I think you're being a tad little conservative. I also think "Captain America", "X-Men: First Class" and "Super 8" will make much more than the $125mil tally you're projecting for "Crazy, Stupid, Love".
Also, how about adding Worldwide projections to this list? Include the entire globe, and all of a sudden Potter gains the upper hand versus Transformers. Even Pirates becomes a bigger contender. Just sayin'.
May 16, 2011 at 1:37AM EST Reply to Commenthmmm.very conservative list.i still think deathly hallows part 2 will beat the first ones $317 M.and kung fu panda will by all means make more than $2ooM.
My prediction,
Transformers-$375M
Harry potter-$350M
Kung fu panda-$275M
Cars-$250M
Hangover 2-$250M
hh no for some thats way to much
June 20, 2011 at 1:55PM ESTTransformers prediction is ok, it could be around 370-420
To much for harry, only 2 and i repeat 2 films have made over 300 so around 290-320
Kung fu panda right now hasn't recouped all it's budget, so 275 no. Around 190-210
Cars seems ok and also hangover part 2