SHOW: "Castle" (ABC)

IN ITS FAVOR: With or without a "Dancing with the Stars" lead-in, "Castle" is usually able to win its Monday 10 p.m. slot overall. Thanks in large part to star Nathan Fillion, "Castle" is able to attract occasion buzz and it remains a key piece of ABC's lineup as comfort food.

AGAINST IT: "Castle" skews a bit old and loses to CBS' "Hawaii Five-0" in the key 18-49 demographic even when "Dancing with the Stars" is in season.

OUR TOTALLY UNINFORMED GUESS: "Castle" will be back. ABC would be smart to try to use that Monday 10 p.m. slot as a launching pad for a new drama, but ABC has traditionally been reticent about moving even tepid performers out of proven time slots. Regardless, "Castle" will be back. Don't worry.

VERDICT: Renewed!