Cannes awards preview: What will win, and what should
Who will get the gold from Steven Spielberg and his fellow jurors?
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Will win: "Like Father, Like Son," Hirokazu Kore-eda
Should win: "Blue is the Warmest Color," Abdellatif Kechiche
Other possibilities: "The Past," Asghar Farhadi; "The Immigrant," James Gray; "The Great Beauty," Paolo Sorrentino; "Inside Llewyn Davis," Joel and Ethan Coen; "Behind the Candelabra," Steven Soderbergh
Our reasoning: I never predict this correctly, so I'm going against the critical (and my personal) favorite and hoping fate does its work once more. Kore-eda's schematic, overtly heart-tugging family drama was pegged as a favorite immediately after its premiere, and while it's faded a little from the conversation in the last week, it's still easy to see it pulling off a slightly unfashionable win here. The argument goes that Steven Spielberg, often preoccupied with parent-child relationships in his own work, may respond to the emotional directness and sentimentality of this film -- though even if his tastes don't align that neatly with his own output (often the case with Cannes jury presidents), this highly agreeable film could be the compromise choice that emerges if the jury is split over other, more adventurous titles. I'm playing it safe here, and very much hope I'm wrong, but this could be the "Son's Room" of 2013.