Cannes awards preview: What will win, and what should
Who will get the gold from Steven Spielberg and his fellow jurors?
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Grand Jury Prize
Will win: "Blue is the Warmest Color," Abdellatif Kechiche
Should win: "The Immigrant," James Gray
Other possibilities: "The Past," Asghar Farhadi; "The Great Beauty," Paolo Sorrentino; "Inside Llewyn Davis," Joel and Ethan Coen; "A Touch of Sin," Jia Zhangke; "Like Father, Like Son," Hirokazu Kore-eda
Our reasoning: Given that this is the official silver-medal honor, speculation here is pretty much inseparable from the Palme d'Or: the question isn't why a film will win the Grand Prix so much as why it won't win the Palme. At this stage, Abdellatif Kechiche's erotically charged emotional epic is the favorite for the gold, leading all critics' polls and landing the FIPRESCI prize, but I wonder if its steamy content and structural will make it a consensus favorite among the jury, or if it will pipped to the post by something a little more conservative. For the last two years, the critics' and bookies' favorite has gone all the way, but I'm not sure if "Blue," magnificent through it is, has the argument-defying majesty of "Amour" or "The Tree of Life." Meanwhile, if the jury loves the film but wants to give it other awards, a win here would allow them to do so.