Nominees:
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
Richard Gere, "Arbitrage"
John Hawkes, "The Sessions"
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"
Denzel Washington, "Flight"

Who will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
Upset special: Denzel Washington, "Flight"
Lowdown: This is Day-Lewis all the way.  The HFPA don't like to embarrassed (even when they do it to themselves anyway) and not rewarding Day-Lewis would fall into that category.  Yes, the other nominees are deserving, but they aren't as revered as Day-Lewis' turn as America's 16th president.