Nominees:
Marion Cotillard, "Rust and Bone"
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock"
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"
Rachel Weisz, "The Deep Blue Sea"

Who will win: Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Upset special: Marion Cotilard, "Rust and Bone"
Lowdown: Remember, the HFPA voted before the Oscar noms were revealed on Thursday. That means they likely assumed Cotillard was in the final mix (remember she got a supposed "key" SAG Awards nomination).  So, while one would assume Chastain is the lock here, Cotillard - who  won for "La vie en rose" and was nominated for "Nine"  - could surprise.