Locks:
Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"

Maybe: Alan Arkin ("Argo"), Philip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master"), Bruce Willis ("Moonrise Kingdom"), Eddie Redmayne ("Les Miserables")

Lowdown: It's unclear how much the HFPA really like "Les Mis." We're hearing mixed, but they might get swayed to find room for Redmayne. More likely, Arkin and Willis make the cut.