Locks:
"Les Miserables
"Best Exotic Marigold Hotel"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Moonrise Kingdom"

Maybe:
"Bernie," "Seven Psychopaths," "Quartet"

Lowdown: There is a lot of love for "Bernie" in the HFPA, but they are also big fans of Martin McDonagh awarding "In Bruges" two surprise (and deserved) nods for the 2009 show. In fact, Colin Farrell won best actor - comedy or musical for "In Bruges" that year.