Pro: A surprise hit at the box office, stars Jake Gyllenhaal and Michael Pena received rave reviews for their performances in LAPD drama.  The picture also received impressive reviews from noted critics such as Andrew O’Hehir, Roger Ebert, Lisa Schwarzbaum, David Denby and Manhola Dargis.  If it can become a staple of year-end top 10 lists and the studio can get a screener out to members earlier enough, it has a shot.

Con: “Watch” will need major support from distributor Open Road Films to even fashion legitimate campaigns for Gyllenhaal and Pena, let alone a best picture run.  It’s not clear if that level of commitment to play the awards season game is in the young distribution company’s plans.

- Gregory Ellwood