Pro: Gyllenhaal is a previous nominee in the best supporting actor category for his work in "Brokeback Mountain."  He won a BAFTA Award and the National Board of Review honor and received a SAG Awards nomination for the performance.  This year, his work in David Ayer's "End of Watch" has earned him some of his strongest reviews since "Brokeback."  The film is an early fall favorite of critics and a surprise hit at the box office for distributor Open Road Films.  If Open Road can get screenes to Academy members early enough, he's got a chance.

Con: In their short history, Open Road hasn't earned a Golden Globe nomination let alone an Oscar nod for any of their films.  It may be too much to ask a distributor more excited they may actually make money on another film besides "The Grey."  And recent Academy history is full of actors (or their publicists) who tried to mount their own campaigns and failed.

- Gregory Ellwood