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"American Idol" (FOX, January 16)
Which White Guy With Guitar will win this year?!?! "American Idol" is no longer the Death Star it was three or four years ago, but going into its 12th installment, "Idol" remains the gold standard by which all singing reality shows are judged. Will that still be the case after it returns? Or will NBC's "The Voice" have snagged the crown after a third season that failed to suffer the fatigue-based declines many observers predicted? Hoping to stave off usurpation, FOX has overhauled the "Idol" judging panel, with Jennifer Lopez and Steven Tyler exiting and Nicki Minaj, Mariah Carey and Keith Urban joining nothing-better-to-do stalwart Randy Jackson. No matter what the ratings say, "Idol" will continue to be able to claim supremacy over "The Voice" when it comes to stars created and album sales generated, but all the Phillip Phillips downloads in the world won't help FOX if "Idol" loses another 25% of its audience.