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Vera Farmiga, 'Bates Motel'
Nomination Status: Surprise nominee seems vulnerable
In Her Favor: A surprise Emmy nominee in this category last year, Vera Farmiga followed it up with a strong [from what I've seen] second season of "Bates Motel." In terms of performance quality, there'd be no reason [from what I've seen] for her not to be back either in the field this year, or just on the outskirts.
Working Against Her: But I'm predicting "outskirts." "Bates Motel" had that New Show Smell last year and I think some of the buzz faded away this year. [I haven't finished the season yet and nothing has been spoiled for me, which I appreciate, but last year people were regularly tweeting about the show and talking about it more.] Farmiga's nomination last year would also seem like less of an anomaly if it had been followed by a Golden Globe nominations, a Screen Actors Guild Award nomination or any of the normal precursor and postcursor recognition. But ultimately, what I suspect will leave Farmiga on the outside is just the simple numbers game of what may be the toughest field of them all.