'Mad Men,' 'Breaking Bad,' and 'True Detective' likely to make the cut
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Nomination Status: Two seasons, two nominations. Plus a win.
In Its Favor: See the above math. It's pretty simple. Critics (I) often make the mistake of assuming that just because we (I) have utter conviction that the quality of "Homeland" has taken one of the steepest tumbles in recent memory and that, by the end of the third season, it was no longer one of the 25 or 30 best shows on TV, that that means that Emmy voters (or audiences for that matter) feel the same way. So, by that standard, it's very possible that "Homeland" isn't just going to be nominated for a third time, but it's a lock and I'm misjudging its prospects embarrassingly. After all, it did still earn a SAG Awards Ensemble nod this year for its third season and if you're going to have any group of Hollywood professionals still liking you, you could do worse than the Acting Branch of the Academy. And even if "Homeland" didn't win last year, it actually didn't lose support, at least not in terms of nominations.
Working Against It: The Golden Globe and TCA Awards shutouts reflect only a small sample size, but they're not meaningless. But leaving "Homeland" out here is based on a perception of a dissipating supernova, a perception that could be proven entirely incorrect.