'Louie,' 'Girls,' 'Modern Family,' 'Big Bang Theory' likely to be selected
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Nomination Status: Two-time nominee may not have quite the same buzz as two years ago, but without an influx of competition, it should be fine.
In Its Favor: "Girls" arrived on a wave of Emmy hype that saw Lena Dunham earn four nominations in 2012 and even if her 2013 haul slipped to three individual nods, "Girls" snagged an extra, well-deserved, nomination for Adam Driver. From the middle to the end of the third season, "Girls" was at its very best last year, alternating between hilarious moments and soul-crushing moments. And, amusingly, relative to other shows crashing this category this year, I think the balance was more toward the former than the latter. Take the hilariously cringe-worthy "Beach House" and the emotional "Flo" (with June Squibb VERY much deserving an Emmy nod) and you can see both of the strongest sides of "Girls."
Working Against It: Is it a suggestion of capped support that Dunham has seven Emmy nods in two years but zero wins? I'm not sure. Remember how riled up people got about "On All Fours" and "One Man's Trash" last season? Yeah, nothing in Season 3 produced anywhere near that level of outrage or near that level of buzz. In fact, the most controversy "Girls" got all season was out of its TCA press tour panel. I think "Girls" may have had its most consistent season last year, but consistent isn't sexy.