'Louie,' 'Girls,' 'Modern Family,' 'Big Bang Theory' likely to be selected
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'Orange is the New Black,' Netflix
Nomination Status: Can Netflix turn a full year of buzz into a nomination? I'm *guessing* yes.
In Its Favor: Remember that this is for the first season of "Orange Is The New Black," which premiered last summer and went from a sleeper to a critical favorite to what may or may not be a cultural phenomenon, since who knows how many people watch "Orange." And then the nomination period comes exactly as fans of the first season are binging on the season season, so it should be top-of-mind for voters. One of the best reviewed shows of 2013, "Orange Is The New Black" has only slowly began to make award-list appearances, but it has several big TCA Award nominations, it picked up a bunch of WGA Award nods in the winter, etc. And Netflix did a really smart thing in putting the Jenji Kohan series in the comedy categories, both because that's where it belongs, but also because that's where there's more room for it to shine. Looking at the ballots, between Lead Actress, Supporting Actress, Guest Actress and Guest Actor, I could argue for between five or 10 acting nominations. A best case for Netflix is probably a couple acting nods, a writing nomination, maybe a directing nod, a casting nomination and a Comedy Series nomination. But I can imagine "Orange" getting as many as 13 or 14 nominations...
Working Against It: Or as few as two (casting and Taylor Schilling). The category mixed signals in the winter hurt the show, though I still find it ignorant and offensive that the Screen Actors Guild didn't think this was one of the five best ensembles on TV regardless of category. But you're looking at a show that one year ago, nobody had heard of, featuring stars who were equally unheard of a year ago. This is a show that people love. It's a show I love. But it's unclear what Netflix's powers are when it comes to a show like this. "House of Cards" had Kevin Spacey and David Fincher. "Arrested Development" was "Arrested Development" and it underperformed. "Orange" has no brand. It's just great. But Emmy voters have traditionally ignored a lot of great stuff and the TV Academy's history of ignoring great stuff when it features unknown minority actors will weigh heavily if there's a snub here.