Dustin Hoffman, "Luck"

Nomination Status: He's Dustin Hoffman. On an HBO show. I'm incredulous he's not in my predicted Top 6.

In His Favor: One more time: He's DUSTIN HOFFMAN. He's ON AN HBO DRAMA. It's WRITTEN BY DAVID MILCH. Those are some powerful things in Hoffman's favor. Also, on the surface, Ace Bernstein sounded like a character built for Emmy purposes with a combined mission of moral redemption and revenge.

Working Against Him: Viewers were surprised, though, when they watched "Luck" and, in many episodes, Hoffman was basically a supporting performer. And in other episodes, even when he was central, Hoffman was being uncharacteristically understated. I'd say that in the last episode or two of the season, Hoffman delivered enough big moments to justify the Emmy hype, but it was clear that Milch was saving the big pyrotechnics for a second season that never occurred. Will that restraint, plus the show's abrupt and tragic demise, cost Hoffman what should have been a lock of a nomination?