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Next gallery »Emmy Nomination Preview 2012 - Outstanding Drama Series
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Nomination Status: The last nomination is down to four or five variably plausible shows. I'm giving "Girls" the edge because of newness and buzz and a bunch of ephemeral stuff.
In Its Favor: Very few first-year shows receive the wave of press that greeted "Girls," much less the careful consideration and reconsideration and re-reconsideration that Lena Dunham's comedy received. We've had so many layers of backlash that I don't remember if the current backlash is that "Girls" is awesome, but I think that's where most scribes ended things by the finale. With HBO's veteran Emmy wranglers making the push, voters should be properly convinced that "Girls" is both excellent and that voting for it is "important," that it's a recognition of a new voice who doesn't just deserve recognition, but needs it. "Girls" also benefits from that thing about polarizing shows: The people who enjoy it, love it with new evangelical fervor.
Working Against It: Yes, some people hate "Girls." And some people don't think "Girls" is a comedy. [I find it extremely funny, but what do I know?] I don't think those things will matter. What will matter is that "Girls" is bucking for a last comedy slot against a slew of shows with more viewers or more established Emmy pedigrees. It definitely wouldn't be surprising for "Girls" not to make the cut in favor of one of those shows.