Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"

Nomination Status: Dropping categories won't hurt her

In Her Favor: Nominated in the stronger lead actress field last year, Moss dropped to supporting this year. It's probably the right call. Peggy was the star of the season's early episodes -- her pot-smoking was classic -- fell under the radar for several weeks and then returned to shine in the end. Her scene with Jon Hamm was, in fact, a highlight of the excellent season finale. This category is a soft one, with Cherry Jones and two "In Treatment" co-stars falling out, so figure Moss steps in to take at least one open nomination.

Working Against Her: Almost nothing. She got on the board last year, which was the key. This year, she just needs voters to notice that she changed categories. In Lead Actress, she was fighting off January Jones. Here she's head-to-head with Christina Hendricks, which should be manageable.