Simon Baker, "The Mentalist"
Nomination Status: Strong candidate for the fifth spot on the ballot.
In His Favor: Simon Baker is the final returning candidate from last year's nominee pool (Gabriel Byrne of "In Treatment" wasn't eligible), so that probably makes him the top contender after the four locks, especially having added Golden Globe and SAG Award nominations this year. "The Mentalist" continues to be a big hit for CBS and there's no reason why voters would have soured on Baker.
Working Against Him: After being a huge breakout in its first season, "The Mentalist" moved to Thursdays and while it held its audience, perhaps it lost a little buzz? There are a lot of "nostalgia" candidates for the sixth spot -- including Kiefer Sutherland and Matthew Fox -- and several Emmy favorites with new shows -- including Ray Romano and Peter Krause -- so Baker's position may also be vulnerable.