Toni Collette, "United States of Tara"

Nomination Status: She's in.

Bottom Line: If anybody has even an outside chance of beating Tina Fey this year, it's going to be Toni Collette. In terms of pure performance, nobody's work in this category is showier and, gimmickry aside, it's just a good performance, even in the episodes that go light on Tara's alters. Collette is also a respected actress, with an Oscar nomination, three Golden Globe nominations and even a previous Emmy nod ("Tsunami: The Aftermath") on her resume. More than any other category, Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy stands a chance of just repeating last year's nominations, with Collette moving into the expanded field.