This year's field of originals and adaptations is incredibly dense
Next gallery »'Anchorman 2' character posters featuring Will Ferrell, Paul Rudd and more
« Previous gallery7 new 'Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug' character posters
"Captain Phillips" - Billy Ray (Adapted Screenplay)
Pros: This tense maritime thriller has probably done well enough critically and commercially to seal a spot in the Best Picture and Best Director races, so there's no reason to think a writing nod wouldn't come with the package. Ray's adaptation of Richard Phillips' memoir is taut and efficiently constructed, but with a welcome serving of character detail.
Cons: It's not the flashiest writer's showcase in the pack, and Greengrass' direction is soaking up more credit for the film's effectiveness than Ray's contribution. What if it's just everyone's third choice?
- Guy Lodge