This year's field of originals and adaptations is incredibly dense
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"Nebraska" - Bob Nelson (Original Screenplay)
Pros: Producers Ron Yerxa and Albert Berger have been sitting on this script since the "Election" days and finally it found its way to the screen. Bob Nelson's work draws out a rich midwest authenticity that both tells a compelling story and gives the actors a lot to play with. It's a formidable contender in this race.
Cons: The upcoming theatrical release will tell the box office tale, of course, though Paramount has already done a lot of heavily lifting reaching Academy members. The field is tight so it's possible something like this gets squeezed out but honestly, it seems like it's in pretty good shape.